Australian Open tips and predictions: Tennis betting preview and best bets

Tennis betting tips: Australian Open

4pts Aryna Sabalenka to win the title at 5/2 (General)

1pt Yulia Putintseva to win the fourth quarter at 16/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Australian Open – Women’s Singles

• Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia (outdoor hard)

I’ll get straight to the point here – ARYNA SABALENKA is a worthy favourite for the 2025 Australian Open.

• CLICK HERE to back Sabalenka with Sky Bet

Having won here in each of the last two years, the Belarusian is bidding to complete a hat-trick in Melbourne this season and I won’t be betting against her.

Things have certainly changed a lot since Sabalenka played here three years ago.

In 2022, her second serve was falling apart and double faults flowed from her racquet. A shot that should have been a major weapon in her big-hitting game was instead undermining it and Sabalenka later admitted she considered throwing in the towel.

She’ll be glad she didn’t.

Having worked with a biomechanics expert to eradicate the problems, she arrives here three years on as world number one and the reigning champion at both hardcourt Grand Slams – Sabalenka also won the US Open back in September.

She’s been remarkably consistent in the majors, reaching at least the semis in nine of his last 12. On hardcourts – where she’s most dangerous – Sabalenka has made four Slam finals in a row, winning three.

Few in the women’s game have her power off the ground – off both wings – while her first serve is one of the biggest too.

Her game can still go ‘off’ for periods – that happened as she was approaching the finish line in that US Open final against Jessica Pegula – but she’s learned to deal with such setbacks much better and is able to control her game much more than in her early years when things would unravel too easily.

Sabalenka’s record in Australia is excellent. I’ve already highlighted her success at this tournament but she’s also regularly won warm-up events Down Under, her latest coming only last week in Brisbane.

That should set her up nicely for another assault on this crown and I very much feel she’s the one to beat.

Admittedly, the draw could have been kinder. A repeat of last year’s final with Qinwen Zheng could lie in store at the last-eight stage but Sabalenka leads their head-to-head 5-0 with most of the matches one-sided.

Coco Gauff, the only player in the last two years to beat Sabalenka in a hardcourt Grand Slam match, is also on this side of the draw.

I’d be more concerned about her – Gauff looked in good shape as she led USA to victory at the United Cup team event in the opening week of the season – but Sabalenka won two of their three matches last season.

In short, I feel Sabalenka has the beating of everyone in this field and I’m a little surprised she’s not shorter than 5/2, with Sky Bet making her their 11/4 Price Boost at the time of writing.

Seeds worth opposing in bottom half

The bottom half of the draw looks the place to head for those seeking bigger prices.

I’m not convinced by the leading seeds in this section.

It’s led by Iga Swiatek, just back from a short ban over a controversial failed drugs test.

Like Jannik Sinner in the men’s event – preview here – she’ll be getting plenty of attention about that and as quite an introverted character, I doubt she’ll enjoy her media interviews over the next couple of weeks. It’s also clear some in the locker room aren’t particularly impressed by the fact she received just a one-month suspension.

She also arrives on the back of a defeat to Gauff, a major title rival, at the United Cup.

I’ve never felt Swiatek is comfortable at Melbourne Park and she’s gone beyond the last 16 just once in her six visits, reaching the semis in 2022.

Most at home on clay, Swiatek has scooped up plenty of hardcourt titles in recent years but the fairly slick GreenSet courts here are faster than ideal for the Pole and a major reason why she’s failed to make a Melbourne final.

I’d love to see a third-round slug-fest with either Emma Raducanu or Amanda Anisimova – that could be this year’s undoing – but my main view on Swiatek is that she should be opposed.

Jasmine Paolini is the fourth seed and she was excellent in 2024, reaching the final at both the French Open and Wimbledon.

But, again, it’s probably a bit quick for the Italian, while if you dig deeper into her 2024 campaign, you find her results were better than her data suggested.

The highly-regarded Tennis Abstract’s ELO rankings – which take into consideration the strength of a player’s opponents – have her down in 10th place, six spots lower than her actual WTA ranking.

Some will fancy former Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina to take advantage but the sixth seed has regularly been let down by her body, be it through injury or illness.

Twice in her last seven Grand Slam events, she’s withdrawn midway through, that stat contributing to four first-week exits.

Rybakina did make the final in Melbourne two years ago but her chances of a repeat also appear to be being undermined by her coaching situation.

Having hired Goran Ivanisevic, she appears to have annoyed the former Wimbledon champion by bringing back former coach Stefano Vukov into the set-up.

Well, I say bringing back. He’s actually now been suspended by the WTA and, as things stand, won’t be able to be on site at Melbourne Park.

It’s the quarter betting I’m turning to in a bid to find a big-priced winner.

In Q3, that of Rybakina and Paolini, I am again tempted to back Madison Keys.

As has often been the case, the American has made a strong start to the season, making the quarter-finals in Auckland before progressing to the final in Adelaide where she took down seeds Daria Kasatkina and Jelena Ostapenko. At time of writing, she is due to face Jessica Pegula in the final.

Keys has reached the last four twice here before – and is also a former US Open finalist.

However, I’ve been burned a lot – too much – by the American in these hardcourt Slams down the years and so the price of 5/1 about her winning this quarter just isn’t big enough for me to get involved.

Instead, I’ll head to Q4 where YULIA PUTINTSEVA looks much more appealing at 14/1 generally and a best of 16s.

• CLICK HERE to back Putintseva with Sky Bet

Like Keys, she’s made a good start to 2025, reaching the semi-finals in Adelaide where Donna Vekic, Ons Jabeur and Diana Shnaider were all beaten.

Two of those are top-20 players, while Jabeur is a former world number two, currently battling her way back up the rankings following injury.

Essentially, Putintseva, who packs a punch bigger than her small frame, has already added to an impressive 2024 campaign, one which saw her post a winning record over top-20 players of 8-7.

Melbourne title hopefuls Gauff and Swiatek were among her victims and the latter is particularly relevant given she’s in this section of the draw; the pair could meet in the quarter-finals.

I feel it’s worth taking on Swiatek here and there looks to be some juice in the Kazakh’s price.

Posted at 1745 GMT on 10/01/25

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