Australian Open day 12 tips: Scott Ferguson's best bets from Melbourne

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1pt Thiem to win and both players to win a set at 6/4

Dominic Thiem v Alexander Zverev

So there’s going to be a new challenger to Novak Djokovic - but who will it be? At one end you have the Rafa-slayer in Dominic Thiem, at the other a figurehead of the NextGen movement, the 6’6” 23-year-old, Alexander Zverev.

Thiem took the match to Nadal by winning more of the longer rallies, deemed as any point lasting longer than four shots. He wore him down with his tireless court coverage, forcing Nadal to hit harder and flatter groundstrokes early in the point instead of his trademark heavy spin, loading up the pressure before the kill.

While often it is the Austrian's offensive work winning matches, his defensive traits kick in where necessary. In the end it came down to only a few points, and securing all three tiebreaks, as he completed an impressive victory which leaves him one step away from the final.

Zverev’s success isn’t purely reliant on his serve. While in each match so far he has served at a minimum of 74% first serve in (high for a big server), winning over 70% of those points, he can also ramp up pressure in the return games.

So far he has converted 22 of 56 break points generated, nicely spread across each match, and that's ultimately what has carried him to his first Grand Slam semi-final.

While his opponents haven't been as highly ranked (three outside top 50, none better than 15), he has dropped just one set (the opening set to Stan Wawrinka) and has been taken to two just tiebreaks, each across the opening two rounds. For such a tall man, you'd expect his stats to be heavily serve-dominated, but he imposes plenty of pressure from the opposite end as well - he's actually marginally ahead of Thiem on ATP Return Ratings.

This pair of ‘great friends’, as described by Thiem in Wednesday's press conference, have clashed eight times with Thiem holding the edge 6-2. In Grand Slams it’s 2-0 and both at Roland Garros, although Zverev played through an obvious hamstring injury the last time. On clay overall it’s 4-1, with 2-0 indoor and a win for the German in their solitary match outdoors on hardcourt.

That last stat is useful here, but if the forecast is for 43C during the day, then the roof will be on. I was surprised the ladies' semis were played with the roof open but a late thunderstorm is expected in Melbourne on Friday to bring some relief from the extreme heat, so there's even more reason to close the roof - assuming it hasn’t been and gone by the time of the match.

Since Zverev turned 19, the betting has always been close in these matches, with the favoured player around 4/5. This time the gap is more significant, a realisation that 6-2 is now a notable advantage to Thiem to go with the recognition he deserves for the achievement of beating Nadal.

This is a first Grand Slam semi-final appearance for Zverev, while for Thiem, it's his first away from Roland Garros. For once, then, Thiem has the edge in maturity - but how much will that really count?

Winning the clutch points in any contest is critical and when your game has many facets, you can always revert to a different approach if one shot isn't up to scratch. Zverev's game centres around short points via his serve and his forehand. Over the best-of-five, there's plenty of time for Thiem to decipher any magic in his weapons, and while Zverev has a four-hour advantage in time spent on court so far, his opponent has the bigger engine.

Zverev will have a lot of the local crowd support after confirming his pre-tournament promise to donate all his prize money to the bushfire relief fund, even if it’s the $4m winner’s cheque. I’m expecting the German to make a game of it but the steadiness of the Austrian to prevail, so take Thiem to win despite dropping a set or more.

Preview posted 1550 GMT on 30/01/2019

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