Scott Ferguson expects Milos Raonic to push Novak Djokovic all the way - in the first set at least - in Melbourne on Tuesday.
Recommend bets:
1pt Over 10.5 1st Set Total Games at 11/8 in Raonic v Djokovic
Milos Raonic v Novak Djokovic
The dogs are barking that Milos Raonic is in the best form of his career, an opinion backed up by four straight set wins, just seven break points conceded and not a single break of his serve at this tournament so far. In the Tuesday Night Live on Rod Laver Arena slot, he'll need all that and more when he faces his nemesis Novak Djokovic, who holds a 9-0 head-to-head record over him.
The Montenegran-born giant has been farming winners all week but that prospect is very different against the best mover on the tour. The seven-time champion has unbelievable court coverage, to not only reach the balls going for winners against lesser players, but to often get back into the point on at least an equal footing. Couple that with a serve getting even better with age, courtesy of assistant coach Goran Ivanisevic, and you have the whole package.
In those nine clashes, only twice (from 23 sets) has Raonic even claimed a set. That's not for lack of trying, there have been seven tiebreakers, but Djokovic's play on the clutch points is something to behold. Against the serving giants, a match might come down to just converting a couple of half-opportunities and he is the king of it.
Break opportunities will be few and far between, maybe even one or two for the entire match. The courts will be nice and fast for the big servers, but many players have commented on this year's batch of balls. They tend to fluff up towards the end of their rotation - seven games to begin the match (to allow for the warm-up) and every nine games after that. If you're looking for an in-play angle, track the life of each set of balls and look at the break being most likely in that final game when the server advantage drops ever so slightly.
For the pre-match bet, I fancy the first set to develop into an ardous battle. A tiebreak is priced at 2/1, but I'd rather capture the 7-5 option as well.
Best bet: 1pt Over 10.5 1st Set Total Games at 11/8
Ash Barty v Petra Kvitova
The day session at Melbourne Park features Australia's favourite little Vegemite Ash Barty and her conqueror at this tournament in 2019, Petra Kvitova. The slate stands at 4-3 to the Czech but it's a remarkably streaky record - Kvitova won the first four clashes from 2012 through to Jan 2019, then Barty claimed the last three from March through to October.
In the last two rounds, both women have beaten a player in hot form and a player who has had their measure before. For Barty, she quickly trailed 1-2 against Elena Rybakina before winning 11 of the next 13 games to secure a straight sets victory. On Sunday, she faced Alison Riske who had beaten her twice before. It was a dogged battle, with a vast difference between first and second serve stats for the Australian.
In the end, it was just as much a win for thinking on her feet than any specific plan. Winning 80% of first balls scores you a lot of points but only 28% on the second opens you up to breaks. Riske reads the Barty serve better than most and it needed the diminutive Aussie to win all bar one first service point in the final set to prevail. Only in the first clash between tonight's combatants has Barty ever served so poorly on the second ball, but she'd only just turned 16 back then.
Kvitova lifted a gear to defeat Ekaterina Alexandrova in a dominant display, followed by an awkward three-setter against Maria Sakkari, which drew her level at two apiece in career clashes. That was a scratchy performance, where apart from a six-game streak spanning the latter two sets, it was a hard grind. She was celebrating more than you'd normally expect for this early in the tournament, a recognition that she had survived a contest she could easily have lost. The errors significantly outweighed the winners, she won't get away with that against Barty.
I could really see the match going any number of ways, and at the prices available, nothing grabs my eye.
Best bet: No bet
Preview posted 1205 GMT on 27/01/2019
