Scott Ferguson previews day two at the Australian Open, where Daniil Medvedev can leave Frances Tiafoe behind - and not for the first time.
Recommended bets
2pts under 31.5 games in Medvedev v Tiafoe at 10/11
1.5pts Duckworth to beat Bedene at 7/5
1pt over 37.5 games in Kecmanovic v Seppi at 10/11
0.5pt Tomljanovic to win & under 22.5 games at 3/1
Medvedev v Tiafoe
This time last year we had two players on the verge of breaking through, with Daniil Medvedev reaching the fourth round and Frances Tiafoe into the quarter-finals, their best Grand Slam tournament performances to date.
Twelve months on, it's all about the Russian perched at number four in the world after a stellar hardcourt season in particular, meanwhile the American remains anchored to the edge of the top 50 having failed to make similar strides.
The pair have clashed twice before on the tour, split one apiece. Tiafoe's win was on clay in 2015 and is almost irrelevant now, while Medvedev's success came amid his great run in Washington last August.
Coming in to Melbourne, the formlines reflect their rankings. Tiafoe lost his opening matches in both Doha (to Martin Fucsovics) and Auckland (to Mikael Ymer), matches he should be winning if he wants to be earning a seeding at a Slam.
Medvedev on the other hand hasn't let up. After the Davis Cup in November, he played and won an exhibition event in Saudi Arabia in December, followed by the ATP Cup a fortnight ago.
In the newest team event, he faced a swathe of strong opponents, beating Fabio Fognini, John Isner, Casper Ruud and Diego Schwartzman before losing to Novak Djokovic in a ridiculously high-standard match for early January. He is the real deal and has an amazing ability to play at a consistently high level.
This might be the most competitive match of the night on paper but until Tiafoe takes a big step forward, it's going to be one-way traffic.
Sky Bet have Medvedev to win and under 30.5 games at 11/10 but that game line is just a touch too low. I'd rather take the safety of 31.5 games as extra insurance.
Duckworth v Bedene
Australia's James Duckworth has managed to restart his career in the past 18 months, after a prolonged period of injury. He won three Challenger events (and reached two other finals) in the latter half of 2019 and is now back inside the top 100.
He played more matches last year than in any other of his professional career, going 52-26 with three-quarters of those victories on hardcourt.
Duckworth started his local campaign in Adelaide with a win over Federico Delbonis. In the secound round against Canadian wunderkind Felix Auger Aliassime, he was competitive but couldn't match him on the key points, losing in straight sets despite only one service break.
The London-based Slovenian, Aljaz Bedene, has an unenviable record at the Australian Open, suffering first-round exits for seven years in a row.
He started the season in Doha, reaching the quarter-finals, before reverting back to his usual form Down Under with an opening-round loss in Adelaide. The cycle has to break at some stage, surely, but be darned if that means supporting him at odds-on.
Duckworth has the confidence and solid base of form to win this, against a player seemingly allergic to Melbourne water. Any price better than a coin flip is well worth taking.
Tomljanovic v Sevastova
Ajla Tomljanovic has started 2020 with a win and a loss in two local events, but you can cut her a bit of slack - those two losses were against Karolina Pliskova (second seed here) and Simona Halep (four).
The naturalised Australian sits on the verge of the top 50 and finished her preparation with a win over Maria Sharapova at Kooyong last week in an exhibition, a player she lost to a month ago in another exhibition event in Abu Dhabi. She has the match practice under her belt and this year has set her sights on making an impression in the big events.
Anastasia Sevastova reached the round of 16 in Melbourne and Paris last season but ended 2019 with a bunch of problems. The new year hasn't started much better, leaving her on a run of six losses from her last seven matches, after defeats to Sofia Kenin in Brisbane and Donna Vekic in Adelaide.
The composure of Tomljanovic on key points will determine her fate. Sometimes a little anxious, she faces a player down on confidence and if she is to prove successful here, I see it happening quickly.
Kecmanovic v Seppi
The young Serb plays the wily old Italian out on Court 10 in a match I expect to last for several hours.
Miomir Kecmanovic featured in the NextGen ATP Finals in November, a recognition of his future promise and rankings improvement during the year from 131st in the world to just outside the top 50.
After spending the offseason training alongside players such as Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, he lined up in Doha, going all the way to the semi-finals, before succumbing to the rampant Andrey Rublev. Young and aggressive, his power game will claim plenty of cheap points, particularly on serve.
Andreas Seppi has a remarkable record here, reaching the fourth round four times in the past seven years, and winning at least two rounds every year since 2015, far and above his record at any other Slam. The 35-year-old went to Auckland last week after a late promotion into the main draw but was caught out by the weather.
After being held over by rain, he was forced to play twice in the same day, which he revealed was "a bit too much for my age". Despite that, his stamina has been his greatest asset over the years and I expect him to really test this young buck.
Posted at 1615 GMT on 20/01/20
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