Australian Open Final: Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal preview, TV info and betting tips

Here, we run through the key details including when and where to watch, how the two compare, their routes to the final and more.

Betting preview

Recommended bets

2pts Novak Djokovic to win 3-1 at 19/5

2pts Novak Djokovic to win the first set 6-3 at 6/1

0.5pt Rafael Nadal to win the 1st set 6-4 at 11/2

The Australian Open men’s final may look impossible to call to some, but the wealth of history between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal provides us with some obvious betting angles.

Djokovic and Nadal have destroyed all in their paths to set up a blockbuster final, leaving bookmakers struggling to pick a favourite.

The world number one is marginally shorter price at a widely available 8/11 but should be even shorter given his hard-court dominance of his greatest rival.

An abundance of data is available to crunch from the most contested match up in the history of men’s tennis, with the pair competing 52 times.

The Serb, who leads 27-25 overall, has won their last five outdoors hard-court meetings without dropping a set and 14 of 19 in total, while boasting six titles at Melbourne Park compared the his opponent’s solitary triumph.

That included their marathon final in 2012, when Djokovic’s superior fitness shone through.

Conditioning is another reason why I’m backing the world number one, with Nadal not playing a competitive match in four months prior to arriving in Melbourne after withdrawing from Brisbane due to a thigh strain.

He has adapted impressively to power through the previous six rounds without dropping a set, meaning he arrives fresh for Sunday’s showdown.

However, the lack of miles in his legs is a concern as he comes against the game’s best defence.

Nadal has added an added an average of 7kmph to his first serve and 6kmph to his second, which may force the Serb deeper but is unlikely to earn him nearly as many free points as he’s enjoyed in previous rounds.

His forehand down the line and cross-court backhand will be pivotal to exposing Djokovic’s weaker defensive wing, the forehand side, while finishing ruthlessly at the net will be critical.

However, history suggests that is easier said than done and I simply cannot see past the overwhelming stats in Djokovic’s favour.

Looking towards predicting the first-set score, the pair have won 26 first sets each and 10 (38.4 percent) of the Serb’s triumphs have been by a scoreline of 6-3.

That’s a tempting top price of 6/1 as the bookmakers’ rigid sub-market models ignore the fact that Nadal often opts to receive in the opening game when he wins the toss.

Djokovic will always chose to serve and, given the most common way of settling a set is a solitary break, the price is quite simply too big.

For those backing Nadal, 11/2 is available with Boylesports for him to win the first set 6-4 for the 13th time against his nemesis.

I’ll finish up with the most mundane part of our number crunching to explain why I’m backing Djokovic in four.

The pair have completed 12 Grand Slam meetings and half of them have been settled in four sets, with three in three and another three going the distance.

That certainly is not reflected in the odds, with four sets (17/10 with Black Type) only marginally shorter price than three (2/1) and five (12/5).

Therefore, Djokovic in four makes perfect sense, preferably after kicking-off with a 6-3 opening-set triumph.

When is the final?

The men's Australian Open final takes place late on Saturday night local time - which means Djokovic and Nadal are expected to take to Rod Laver Arena at around 8.15am UK time on Sunday morning

Where can I watch it?

Eurosport are broadcasting this year's event live on Sky Channels 410 and 411, plus via the Eurosport Player.

Routes to the final

Novak Djokovic

• First round: beats Mitchell Krueger 6-3 6-2 6-2
• Second round: beats Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 6-3 7-5 6-4
• Third round: beats Denis Shapovalov 6-3 6-4 4-6 6-0
• Fourth round: beats Daniil Medvedev 6-4 6-7 6-2 6-3
• Quarter-final: beats Kei Nishikori 6-1 4-1 (retired)
• Semi-final: beats Lucas Pouille 6-0 6-2 6-2

Rafael Nadal

• First round: Jack Duckworth 6-4 6-3 7-5
• Second round: Matthew Ebden 6-3 6-2 6-2
• Third round: Alex De Minaur 6-1 6-2 6-4
• Fourth round: Tomas Berdych 6-0 6-1 7-6
• Quarter-final: Frances Tiafoe 6-3 6-4 6-2
• Semi-final: beats Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-2 6-4 6-0

Note: Nadal has spent just 12 minutes longer on court than his rival - though he does have an extra day between his semi-final and the final

Tale Of The Tape

Djokovic

• Age 31
• Nationality Serbian
• Coach Marian Vajda
• Height 6ft 2in
• World Ranking 1
• Career Titles 72
• Career Prize Money 125.8 million US dollars
• Grands Slam Titles 14
• Australian Open Best Winner (2008/11/12/13/15/16)
• Head-To-Head Wins 27

Nadal

• Age 32
• Nationality Spanish
• Coach Carlos Moya
• Height 6ft 1in
• World Ranking 2
• Career Titles 80
• Career Prize Money 103.3 million US dollars
• Grands Slam Titles 17
• Australian Open Best Winner (2009)
• Head-To-Head Wins 25

Grand Slam titles

Novak Djokovic - 14

• Australian Open (6) - 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016
• French Open (1) - 2016
• Wimbledon (4) - 2011, 2014, 2015, 2018
• US Open (3) - 2011, 2015, 2018

Rafael Nadal - 17

• Australian Open (1) - 2009
• French Open (11) - 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018
• Wimbledon (2) - 2008, 2010
• US Open (3) - 2010, 2013, 2017

What records can they both achieve?

• Rafael Nadal is bidding to become the first man ever to win each of the Grand Slam titles more than once.
• Novak Djokovic is aiming to win the Australian Open for a record seventh time.

History

Djokovic and Nadal have gone head-to-head on 52 occasions at ATP Tour level, with Djokovic holding the slenderest of advantages having won 27 games to Nadal's 25.

This will be their 15th grand slam meeting, and so far it's the Spaniard who has come out on top with nine wins to Djokovic's five.

In grand slam finals, their meetings are listed below, with Nadal holding a 4-3 lead.

Their 2012 clash here in Melbourne is widely regarded as one of the best grand slam finals of all time and is certainly the longest, having lasted five hours 53 minutes. More details on that can be found further down.

Australian Open

2012 - Djokovic beat Nadal 5-7 6-4 6-2 6-7 7-5

French Open

2012 - Nadal beat Djokovic 6-4 6-3 2-6 7-5

2014 - Nadal beat Djokovic 3-6 7-5 6-2 6-4

Wimbledon

2011 - Djokovic beat Nadal 6-4 6-1 1-6 6-3

US Open

2010 - Nadal beat Djokovic 6-4 5-7 6-4 6-2

2011 - Djokovic beat Nadal 6-2 6-4 6-7 6-1

2013 - Nadal beat Djokovic 6-2 3-6 6-4 6-1

The 2012 final

When Djokovic beat Nadal in five sets here some six years ago, it was the longest match in the history of the Australian Open and the longest grand slam final ever.

Here are the key stats from the game.

First serve percentage: Djokovic 59%, Nadal 67%

Winning percentage on first serve: Djokovic 68%, Nadal 66%

Winning percentage on second serve: Djokovic 63%, Nadal 45%

Aces: Djokovic 9, Nadal 10

Double faults: Djokovic 2, Nadal 4

Winners: Djokovic 57, Nadal 44

Unforced errors: Djokovic 69, Nadal 71

Break point conversion: Djokovic 7/20 (35%), Nadal 4/6 (67%)

Total points won: Djokovic 193, Nadal 176

Reaction to the 2012 final

Chris Fowler: "Unforgettable. Unmatched. A new definition of suffering for the title. There really aren't any words to describe this."

Pat Cash: "It was an absolutely superhuman effort by Djokovic. It just goes to show you how good he is. It's mind blowing."

Boris Becker: "What an unbelievable match! Best match I've seen in my lifetime for sure."

Pete Sampras: "By far the greatest match I ever saw. Incredible performances from both guys."

Mats Wilander: "Wow what an unbelievable match to watch. Definitely the greatest match I've seen."

Bjorn Borg: "It showed what it takes to beat this top group of players. Truly fantastic match to watch. One of the greatest I've ever seen."