Andy Schooler previews Tuesday’s action at the Australian Open, including the much-anticipated Andrey Rublev v Joao Fonseca clash.
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open matches
1.5pts Andrey Rublev to beat Joao Fonseca at 7/10 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1.5pt Botic van de Zandschulp (+8.5) to beat Alex de Minaur on the game handicap at 8/11 (General)
1pt over 12.5 games in first set of Hubert Hurkacz v Tallon Griekspoor at 29/20 (Unibet, BetMGM)
1pt Cristian Garin to beat Borna Coric at 13/10 (William Hill, 888sport)
Previously advised
1pt Denis Shapovalov to beat Roberto Bautista Agut 3-0 at 9/4 (bet365)
Hubert Hurkacz v Tallon Griekspoor
This has proved to be a tight match-up in the past and Griekspoor is not without a chance here at 11/5.
The four previous meetings have been split 2-2. Griekspoor won the most recent in Rotterdam last season but they have yet to play on an outdoor hardcourt.
Most notable from those results is the fact that seven of the 14 sets they have played have ended in a tie-break (Griekspoor winning five).
Hurkacz’s strong serve is well known – he was the ace leader on the ATP Tour in 2023 and finished second in 2024 – but Griekspoor is also a regular when it comes to holding and forcing tie-breaks.
Much of that is also down to their relative poor return games – on hardcourts in 2024, Hurkacz broke serve in only 15.6% of games, Griekspoor 13.5%.
Taking out matches played on the slower clay, the Dutchman played 47 matches and in 20 of those the first set went the distance. Recent opponents who were part of that 20 include Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz and Alex Zverev.
This just looks a match where breaking serve is going to be tough and given the stats highlighted, I’m happy to back a first-set tie-break at 29/20 in conditions which should be conducive to service holds.
Botic van de Zandschulp v Alex de Minaur
Backing Dominic Stricker proved to be an awful decision on Monday but I’m prepared to side with another player who has raised his game on big occasions in the past.
Despite having a losing record in 2024, Van de Zandschulp beat Carlos Alcaraz at the US Open and Rafael Nadal in Davis Cup. I also feel it’s worth mentioning the fact he took down home hope Liam Broady at Wimbledon given he’s going to be facing the Aussie crowd, as well as De Minaur, in this one.
Of course, De Minaur deserves his position as favourite but should the underdog really be 10/1? I don’t think so.
The Aussie started his season well enough at the United Cup but wins over Billy Harris and Tomas Martin Etcheverry were always going to be expected.
The pair’s only previous meeting saw De Minaur win in a final set (Davis Cup Finals, 2022) and I feel the Dutchman can keep this one closer than the bookies expect.
Back him on the handicap getting an 8.5-game start.
Borna Coric v Cristian Garin
I’ve written before about Coric being feast or famine – and frankly there’s been more of the latter in recent times.
He has a very poor record in first-round matches – he lost exactly half of them in 2024 (13 of 26).
The Croatian has also struggled in Melbourne, holding a 4-9 career record at this event. In first-round matches he’s a woeful 2-7.
Garin might not seem the natural man to take advantage – he prefers the clay – but he’s had some decent results on other surfaces over the years.
Most importantly for me, he’s just qualified impressively for this tournament, beating seeds Hugo Dellien and Laslo Djere.
The first man to recover from two sets down at this year's Championships
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 4, 2022
Take a bow, Cristian Garin 👏#Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/EdEi8dDBz3
Admittedly, Garin trails the head-to-head 2-1 but the pair last played in 2020 and have never met on an outdoor hardcourt.
At odds-against, Garin looks worth a bet.
Andrey Rublev v Joao Fonseca
Fonseca looks to have a big future ahead of him but what punters need to ask themselves is this - is his time now?
The 18-year-old is on an unbeaten run of 13 matches over the past month, winning the Next Gen ATP Finals, a Challenger Tour event in Canberra and then three rounds of qualifying in Melbourne.
That’s why he’s no bigger than 13/10 to win this contest but it seems very short against a top-10 player.
Only two of Fonseca’s victories in that run have come against top-100 players and while world number 20 Arthur Fils was among them, the Frenchman didn’t look like he was that interested at the Next Gen Finals.
This is ‘proper’ tennis and, notably, played over the best-of-five sets.
With this in mind, I looked up Fonseca’s experience of long matches. It’s obviously pretty limited – only one match longer than three hours at Challenger level or above. It’s interesting to see he lost the final set of that contest 6-1.
Extend the filter to matches of two and half hours or more and his record is just 1-5.
Rublev, the only player to beat both Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz in 2024, endured plenty of problems last season but recently spoke about his mental health battles – he was often criticised for lashing out with his racquet on his own body in times of frustration.
However, he has been very open about those issues in recent days and seems to have a different mindset coming into 2025.
He said: “I’m super-excited about the season because I feel so much better than half a year ago. I’m excited what it can bring – especially as I now understand how it can affect my tennis.”
Basically, I think this is a big step up for Fonseca – probably the biggest and toughest match of his career to date – and if Rublev can play the long game here, I expect him to prevail. Subsequently, odds of 7/10 look worth backing.
CLICK HERE to bet on Rublev with Sky Bet
Preview posted 1305 GMT on 13/01/2025
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
