Australian Open day five tips: Scott Ferguson's best bets from Melbourne

Recommended bets

1pt Zarina Diyas to beat Kiki Bertens at 13/8

1pt double Halep and Pliskova to both win in straight sets at 2.82/1

1pt Medvedev to beat Popyrin in straight sets 4/5

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Zarina Diyas v Kiki Bertens (Saturday 09:30)

After just 24 days of January, Zarina Diyas has already racked up nine wins. Following her W25 tournament win in Hong Kong without the loss of a set, she went to Shenzhen, losing in the quarter-finals to dual Grand Slam title winner Garbine Muguruza.

In Melbourne, she has already claimed two scalps ranked ahead of her, Amanda Anisimova (number 24) and Anna Blinkova (number 58), frustrating them with her flat groundstrokes and return pressure. In both matches, she has won the majority of points on her opponents' serve.

Kiki Bertens started the tournament under an injury cloud with a chronic Achilles problem and has progressed via two rivals ranked outside the top 100. While her stats show relatively clinical wins, she has been quite critical of her own game and talked of 'her legs not being good'. Whether that refers to poor footwork, pain or a combination of the two is unclear without the full context of the conversation.

In their only previous clash, Diyas took advantage of a poor Bertens serving day to win in straight sets. That was back in September 2015 when the Kazakh had a 50-place advantage in the WTA rankings, on an indoor hardcourt. While the ranking differential has flipped these days, Diyas still stands as a difficult opponent with a conflicting style and is worth a look against a player who may struggle with her movement.

The early price has gone but there's still enough value for a regular unit.

Today's double

As the tournament progresses, the likelihood of finding bets to recommend fades as the form becomes clearer and the matches get tighter. Two matches appeal here where I believe the favourites should be even shorter and thus the derived prices in other markets are also slightly inflated. These two matches open up proceedings on Rod Laver Arena.

Simona Halep was in lethal form on Thursday against Harriet Dart, bouncing out to a fast start and cruising through until she got a little too complacent at 6-2 4-0 and allowed Dart the more respectable scoreline of 6-4 to complete the match. At the other end, Yulia Putintseva can best be described as a nuggety, counter-punching player who likes to get under the skin of her opponents. That can work brilliantly against one-trick ponies or players with short fuses, but Halep is neither of those. She can bash or she can grind opponents down, and can keep her emotions under control. She will also be buoyed by the local crowd support, seizing on her Aussie connection, coach Darren Cahill.

Second seed Karolina Pliskova holds a commanding 6-0 lead in the matchup over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, for the loss of just one set on grass. In five hardcourt clashes, it's been a whitewash with the Russian only getting to 4-6 three times in 10 sets, no better. Pliskova is flying so far this year and is expected to continue her dominance over the 30th seed.

Alexei Popyrin v Daniil Medvedev (Saturday 09:00)

Throwing the last surviving Aussies on TV inevitably gives the local broadcast ratings a boost, so the Russian-sounding Alexei Popyrin takes to Rod Laver Arena facing an actual Russian, fourth-seeded Daniil Medvedev. Popyrin is the last survivor of last year's NextGen group and continues his assimilation into the senior ranks.

At Wimbledon last year in their only previous meeting, Medvedev prevailed in four sets after dropping the first in a tiebreak. That was just before the Russian went on his amazing winning run in North America, which propelled him to his current ranking. Despite winning the French Open as a junior, he has added net rushing to his repertoire, a rarity in the modern game of baseline bashers, seeking to disrupt the rhythm of opponents. In his last press conference, he admitted he'll have to rely his net play to challenge Medvedev, one of the elite returners in the sport.

This is a huge challenge for the 20yo Aussie. At Wimbledon, he was relatively unknown and grass suited his style more than Medvedev. In rankings, it is the Russian who has made the leap forward, from number 11 to number 4, while Popyrin has stagnated on the boundary of the top 100. Both have big serves but it is the return game where Medvedev has a decided advantage. There's a considerable gap between them in creating and taking the opportunities to break serve, and that is the statistic which Popyrin's prospects will be pinned on. Unless he can be impenetrable on serve (he's yet to be broken in two matches, but neither player can deemed elite on the return), he's in trouble as I can't see him breaking Medvedev enough times to threaten, perhaps not even at all.

The bet options are for an easy victory at 4/5 or a tiebreak in the match at evens. I just have my doubts Popyrin has enough weapons off the ground to match it with Medvedev once he can start reading the serve.

Preview posted at 1300 GMT on 24/01/2019