Tennis expert Scott Ferguson previews the action in Melbourne, including Roger Federer's clash with John Millman.
Recommended bets:
1pt Tiebreak in Match - Yes, Millman v Federer at 6/5
1pt Julia Goerges to beat Alison Riske at 4/5
1pt Guido Pella to beat Fabio Fognini at 10/11
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
John Millman v Roger Federer (10.30am Friday)
Aussie hopes will be riding high under the Friday night lights, dreaming of a repeat of John Millman's shock victory over Roger Federer at the US Open in 2018.
On that occasion, Federer struggled in the hot and humid New York conditions, a seemingly one-off issue on that particular day. Humidity is rarely a problem in Melbourne but even the traditional January heatwave isn't expected until late next week.
Millman has claimed two very handy scalps so far, defeating number 31 seed Hubert Hurkasz and 49th ranked Ugo Humbert for the loss of only one set, both aggressive young players with big futures.
He plays a solid all-round game without any huge weapons. Composure on key points is one of his biggest assets, as shown in converting eight of ten break point opportunities in the opening round. Against the elite of the game, there's little need to mention those chances are few and far between.
Federer has cruised through his opening rounds, conceding only six and seven games against Steve Johnson and Filip Krajinovic respectively. He's in prime form, his matches have been nicely spaced and there's no reason to expect him not to be fully firing.
In three clashes to date, Millman took the opening set but lost in 2015, won in four sets in the aforementioned US Open clash and then lost in straight sets on grass at Halle (where Federer has won the title ten times). That was last year and he did take the first set to a tiebreak.
Every time they've met, the Aussie has been able to at least trouble the 20-time Grand Slam singles champion and over five sets here with parochial crowd support (although everyone loves Roger), there's every likelihood it can happen again.
Two markets appeal - tie-break in the match at 6/5, and Millman to win a set at 6/4. If Federer's serve is finely tuned, generating that break-point chance might be that little bit harder so I'll take the slightly safer option of the tiebreak.
Guido Pella v Fabio Fognini (08.45am Friday)
A battle of two fairly evenly-matched clay-courters with a considerable difference in time spent on court so far. Guido Pella has only needed seven sets and 4hrs 17mins to progress to the third round, while Fabio Fognini has played back-to-back fifth set tiebreakers, with total court time of just under eight hours.
It's been a topsy-turvy ride for the Italian, trailing 0-2 against Reilly Opelka in the first round before launching a fightback, then mixing it up by throwing away a 2-0 lead against local hope Jordan Thompson before salvaging it late in the evening.
Pella's route has been more comfortable against JP Smith and Gregoire Barrere, suggesting his game is in solid shape without the mental lapses of the flamboyant Italian.
In four previous clashes, all on clay, it's evenly split providing no great insight other than in their one best-of-five sets match, Fognini performed another comeback from two sets down to win in five, in a Davis Cup tie in Argentina.
I've always found betting for or against Fognini to be minefield but surely after successive marathons, he has to be at least a little fatigued. Pella is strong enough to capitalise on that advantage which should sway the balance in his favour.
Alison Riske v Julia Goerges
American Alison Riske won her first matches in Melbourne since 2017 in defeating Yafan Wang and Lin Zhu, a pair of Chinese players ranked outside the top 50. The opening round saw her battle through in three sets, while Wednesday's win over Zhu was more straightforward in the gusty winds.
Facing Julia Goerges is likely to be a much harder task. The German holds a 2-1 h2h lead and has already made an impact at the tournament, knocking out the 13th seed Petra Martic in three sets.
That victory came off the back of strong, accurate serving (won 83% of first serves and 55% on the second ball) and the prolonged aggression that sums up her game. In seven matches so far this year, her only defeats have been to former world number one Caroline Wozniacki in Auckland and to current sixth-ranked Belinda Bencic in a pair of tiebreaks in Adelaide. Both of those players are still alive here.
The money stayed in the bag on Tuesday when opposing Riske but I am prepared to do it again. Goerges, while currently ranked 39, is a former top ten player so I feel there's a bigger upside to her game, whereas Riske just inside the top 20, stretches her talent to its peak.
Preview posted at 1530 GMT on 23/01/2019
