Tennis betting tips: Preview and best bets for MercedesCup on ATP Tour

Tennis betting tips: MercedesCup

1pt e.w. Jordan Thompson at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/2 1,2)

0.5pt e.w. Adrian Mannarino at 20/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/2 1,2)

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MercedesCup

• Stuttgart, Germany (outdoor grass)

The French Open may not be over but that isn’t going to stop the ATP Tour’s grasscourt season from getting under way on Tuesday.

The overlap, caused by Roland Garros’ one-week postponement, means little focus will be on the MercedesCup in Stuttgart and maybe that’s the case with the layers too as there are a couple of decent prices worth backing.

Let’s start with a look at the top half of the draw, one which is led by Canada’s Denis Shapovalov.

I have no qualms about taking him on.

Shapovalov skipped Roland Garros due to a shoulder injury and so his appearance here is something of a surprise.

Whatever the state of his fitness, Shapo faces a tough opener against either Feliciano Lopez or Alexei Popyrin.

The top seed lost his first match on both previous visits to this tournament (in 2018 and 2019) and I would not be at all surprised for him to complete the hat-trick.

Wily veteran Lopez knows how to play on grass better than most on the tour and the two-time Queen’s Club champion is likely to hit the ground running this week.

Popyrin has enjoyed a fine season and has the game, including an impressive serve, to succeed on this surface.

With former Wimbledon finalist Marin Cilic and the always-dangerous-on-grass Dustin Brown also in this quarter, Shapovalov is easily overlooked and I’m not really interesting in backing anyone in what looks a very difficult section to predict.

Aussie to rule back on suitable surface

I much prefer the second quarter where a trio of Australians reside. I’d expect one of them to make the last four but the man who screams value is JORDAN THOMPSON at 40/1.

He’s another player happy to have the grass under his feet and I’m happy to write off his recent bad form on the clay – he was never going to win many matches on that surface.

Instead I want to focus on his most recent grasscourt results which, after the chaos of 2020, came two years ago.

In 2019, Thompson reached the final in Den Bosch and the semis in Antalya. At the former event, he beat compatriot Alex de Minaur – a player he will meet here, as long as Guido Pella is seen off in round one.

John Millman is the other Aussie in this section – Thomspon could face him in the quarter-finals.

Notably, Den Bosch was Thompson’s first grasscourt event of 2019. And going back to 2017, his first steps onto the grass brought a final appearance at the always-strong Challenger event in Surbiton.

That’s evidence that Thompson quickly adapts to this specialist surface and he shouldn’t be on offer at 40s this week.

Critics will point out a lack of wins in 2021 but what is notable on Thompson’s record is that when he had conditions in his favour – the fast courts of Melbourne towards the start of the year – he enjoyed his best result (quarter-finals).

Down in the bottom half, Hubert Hurkacz and Felix Auger-Aliassime are the leading seeds but neither makes great appeal at 13/2.

The 2019 campaign is really the only grasscourt form in the Hurkacz book. Making the last eight at Eastbourne and the third round at Wimbledon is OK but nothing more, although he did take a set off Novak Djokovic in SW19.

Auger-Aliassime was runner-up here the last time the event was staged and he’s also been to the semis of Queen’s, so he’s shown he’s capable and of the two is probably the better bet.

However, both men have been well below their best in recent weeks with Hurkacz laid low by “an infection” during the clay season and Auger-Aliassime still seemingly working on his game under new coach Toni Nadal. You wonder what he’ll be trying to instil in his charge for the grass.

I’ll swerve both and try a small-stakes play on another player who has proved he knows what to do on this surface.

ADRIAN MANNARINO was the man who beat Thompson in that Den Bosch final of 2019.

It was the third year in a row he’d made a grasscourt final on the ATP Tour, the Frenchman having finished runner-up in Antalya in both 2018 and 2017.

Mannarino made the last 16 in Wimbledon in both of those years and his attacking game and awkward lefty serve should be well suited to the Stuttgart courts this week.

He starts against a qualifier before facing another or Sam Querrey in round two. Hurkacz is his scheduled last-eight foe.

The pair played out a tight match in Rotterdam earlier this year. Hurkacz won 6-3 7-6 but on this surface and given his recent problems (he arrives here on the back of four straight losses), I could see Mannarino taking revenge.

The 32-year-old is offered at 20/1 which looks fair enough.

Posted at 2220 BST on 07/06/2021

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