Men's Australian Open outright betting preview and free tips from Scott Ferguson

Recommended bets

0.5pt e.w. Andrey Rublev to win the title at 66/1 (1/2 1,2)

1pt Matteo Berrettini to win quarter three at 9/1

The preliminary stages of the Australian Open have been in the headlines for the wrong reasons this week, with bushfire smoke engulfing Melbourne and making walking down the street difficult, let alone several sets of high intensity tennis.

Generally, Melbourne encounters northerly or westerly winds, areas affected by these fires to just a limited extent as a result, but recent light winds from the east have made life outdoors very uncomfortable.

Thankfully, a bit of rain and change of wind direction should disperse the smoke, in the first week at least, which means we only have to worry about players falling over under the strain of the hot sun again rather than any respiratory issues. And there's 'good' news on that score, too: according to the latest forecasts, week one may not even crack the 30c mark, with rain interruptions more likely.

This season's schedule has been disrupted by the new ATP Cup, which on the surface seems to have given a lot of quality matches to the top players, so on the surface, that should benefit all who participated. Some guys even played so well they had to hit the brakes and pull out of this past week's tournaments, wanting to be fresh for the demands of Melbourne Park in January. Very few players come in with no preparation at all.

In the men's section, it's that eternal question again: is anyone going to step up and break the domination of the almighty triumvirate? I

n an exceptional era which kicked off in mid-2003, we have seen just 11 of the past 66 men's major singles titles go to anyone outside of Messrs Djokovic (winner of 16), Nadal (19) and Federer (20), and none since the US Open of 2016. Once the domain of the younger generation, it's now Marin Cilic who is the youngest active former Grand Slam champion, and he's 31. Just when will the next generation step up?

Of course, this conundrum has a second, key strand: where are the big three currently, and how vulnerable might they be? It might be more than a decade and a half since this dominance began, yet still we have to start with the Serb, the Spaniard and the Swiss.

Nadal has been a finalist here three of the past six years, yet his only Australian Open title came back in 2009. Last year was his best season for nearly a decade when looking purely at majors results and a win here would see him equal Roger Federer on 20 Grand Slam singles titles.

He had a very brief off-season - after winning the Davis Cup in November, he was back before Christmas playing in Abu Dhabi, followed by six matches at the ATP Cup, losing to David Goffin and Djokovic.

Nadal didn't drop a set here last year up to the final, then only claimed eight games in the title match, a perfect demonstration of how close yet how far he's been to adding to that most recent of Aussie Open titles.

Nick Kyrgios looks his biggest danger early, with the likely round four opponent only trailing 3-4 in their head-to-head record. Beyond that, it's potentially Dominic Thiem in the quarters, Daniil Medvedev in the semis (replay of the US Open final) and either Djokovic or Federer in the final. Of course he can win, but Nadal is 6-20 against Djokovic on hardcourt, with the last win back in 2013.

He's likely to be there deep in the second week, but to win the title perhaps he'll need someone to do him a favour on the other side of the draw.

As for Djokovic, he's a seven-time champion who has also won four of the last six majors. Djokovic gave the ATP event in Adelaide a miss this week after winning six matches in the ATP Cup, a heavier load than he usually takes on before Melbourne, which is something of an unknown.

Having retired in the US Open fourth round with a shoulder injury, he has only lost four times in 27 matches since. Notably, none of those events have been best-of-five sets, so you could argue there's a slight concern if he was fully tested during the tournament - but it's probably clutching at straws.

He'll need to be fit and firing in the second week, with likely clashes against Stefano Tsitsipas (quarter-final), Federer (semi) and probably Nadal in the draw. Naturally, he's the one to beat again but at no better than 5/4, I see no need to get on early.

Federer returns for his 21st Australian Open, an incredible feat before even considering his six titles. Since 2004, only twice has he not reached the semi-finals (2015, 2019), and he of course won as recently as two years ago, his last major title.

While he hasn't played a tournament since the ATP Finals in November, he has been keeping in shape and topping up his testimonial fund in a series of exhibitions in South America and Asia, cash that will surely come in handy once he gives it away after so far earning a paltry $129m from tournament prize money.

The lighter schedule is probably a canny way to manage his ailing back which reappears from time-to-time, particularly on hard courts, and stopped him in the US Open. He lost to Tsitsipas in round four last year, conceding the only service break of the match.

This time, he has the winner of Denis Shapovalov and Grigor Dimitrov ahead of him in round three, otherwise it's full steam ahead towards another semi-final appearance - and perhaps beyond. Can he really win another one at age 38? What would I know - I wrote him off as too old back in 2013!

Medvedev broke through last season reaching the US Open final and so nearly pinched it, losing to Nadal in five sets. He then won his next two tournaments, and started this season winning four matches at the ATP Cup, losing a close one to Djokovic.

Having ended the year with an amazing record of 46-13 on hardcourt, he clearly thrives on hard work and indeed a heavy workload, and he's the one best placed to break the endless cycle of the big three.

Medvedev was the 15th seed last year and has now earned his place as one of the elite four protected seeds, having been brilliant since Wimbledon last July.

The dangers in his quarter appear to be the indefatigable Stan Wawrinka in round four, and Goffin, Andrey Rublev (more on him later) or Alexander Zverev in the quarter-final. If those obstacles can be overcome, he is likely to meet Nadal in the semi-final, a player he currently stands 0-3 against but the last two matches (US Open final and at the ATP Finals, both last year) went down to the wire. He can't be far away from that breakthrough.

Tsitsipas was a semi-finalist here last year in front of the traditionally loud Greek support, but the rest of his majors schedule was quite disappointing with a fourth round in Paris followed by first-round exits at both Wimbledon and the US Open. He has so much still to offer, and showed some of that back in London, winning the ATP Finals event in November.

The Greek won just one of his three matches in the ATP Cup but the four sets he lost were all in tiebreaks, without conceding serve. He shouldn't have a great deal of trouble reaching the final eight, where he will have to conquer Djokovic if he's to make his breakthrough.

Zverev has been poor since returning, which can be attributed to a lack of practice in the off-season and the after-effects of minor laser surgery on his eyes. He played exhibitions rather than having a proper break in December, and it's only in the past week he has gotten serious with his practice.

At the ATP Cup where he went 0-3, he was being baited by Kyrgios doing push-ups after each double fault (14) against Alex de Minaur. He's still yet to really mix it with the best at a Grand Slam, two quarter-final appearances in Paris his best, and needs to up his game. He is likely to face either Goffin or Rublev in the round of 16, two players who have started the year in great shape, and looks vulnerable.

As for Kyrgios, he's only the 23rd seed but the complete wildcard capable of beating anyone when that prodigious serve clicks. His ability to string seven together is doubtful - hence he hasn't won anything bigger than an ATP 500 event so far - but there was a lot to like about his ATP Cup performances and he's set for a blockbuster, stadium-filling encounter with Nadal in the fourth round.

Back to ANDREY RUBLEV, he's the hottest player on the tour at present, beating Tsitsipas and Kyrgios at the US Open, then going undefeated through the Davis Cup, and winning titles in Moscow and Doha before lining up for the final this weekend in Adelaide.

He may not have the profile of Medvedev or Tsitsipas but is making rapid progress after being ranked 87th in the world this time last year. It's a tricky quarter and no mistake, but at 50/1 I'd rather take a chance on him than some better-known candidates with a little to prove when it comes to justifying shorter odds.

In the quarters markets, it's tough to oppose the top two seeds but the second and third sections look more competitive. I'm on the Rublev bandwagon outright but feel he's a tight price in the quarter, where Goffin, Zverev and Medvedev will all take some beating to the extent that I can't justify taking the 8/1 on offer.

Federer at 5/4 has to be taken on and that's the way to approach things. The obvious dangers in that section, Shapovalov and Dimitrov, should meet in the third round before the winner faces the GOAT in round four, whereas MATTEO BERRETTINI sits on the other side in a much softer sub-section of the draw.

A semi-finalist at the US Open, his best form would make him a strong fancy to reach the quarter-finals where we'll be sitting nicely at 9/1. As is so often the case, the stronger men's action will be on the daily matches, but two bets are worth taking early.

Posted at 1340 GMT on 18/01/20

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