Australian Open day 11 tips: Scott Ferguson's best bets from Melbourne

Recommended bets

1pt Kenin to win a set at 8/11

0.5pt Halep to win 2-1 at 3/1

Ash Barty v Sofia Kenin

The Barty party is growing by the minute as Australia dares to believe Ash Barty can become the first Australian winner of the women's title since 1978, a decade before the tournament moved from Kooyong to the-then National Tennis Centre.

To defeat the likes of Petra Kvitova, Alison Riske and Elena Rybakina, she’s won with her head more than any particular shot. Unravelling left-handed power, flat-stroke aggression and the form player of the month requires the ability to adapt quickly to the moment, no point rigidly sticking to a game plan which isn’t hitting the mark on a particular day. These changes need not be drastic, subtle changes to the pace or angle of the shot disrupts rhythm, putting a halt to a shift in momentum.

Barty holds a 4-1 record over the Moscow-born American, and it was 3-1 just in 2019. It would be easy to jump on that and declare this a comfortable match-up for the top seed but Kenin is still improving. All four matches last year, including one in Wuhan - yes, WTA players and fans had heard of that city before the coronavirus, were competitive. Two went the distance, the remainder went 7-5 or 7-6, perhaps a point or two from a deciding set.

Sofia Kenin has overcome the exuberance and power of Coco Gauff, and the varied game of Ons Jabeur in her last two rounds. Just 21, she’s still on an upward curve and now she’s reached the final four of a slam, expect that to bring her into regular discussions as a winning chance at the majors. Kenin will go for the winners but also has the ability to wind back her sights if she’s missing more lines than she hits. This will be a match for thinkers.

A close contest is predicted here - Barty with the huge crowd support and Kenin on a career-best run. I think Barty’s a little on the short side at 4/11, I don’t see her running away with this at all.

The Aussie probably raises the roof but Kenin will take it to her.

Best bet: 1pt Kenin to win a set at 8/11

Simona Halep v Garbine Muguruza

Simona Halep was unstoppable in her quarter-final overnight against Anett Kontaveit, thrashing her 6-1 6-1. After being broken on serve in two lengthy games in the first set, the Estonian simply had no answer to the relentless pressure from the fourth seed and was back in the locker room within a hour. Anything Kontaveit tried, Halep was there to send the ball back harder and faster. In the post-match press conference, the Romanian confirmed that's about as good as her game gets.

Garbine Muguruza is back in the spotlight, reaching her first slam semi-final since the French Open of 2018, and the furthest she has ventured in either of the hardcourt majors. After crushing wins over Elena Svitolina and Kiki Bertens, it was a tougher battle against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkva, being down a break three times but on each occasion bouncing straight back. That might be achievable against a player with a short fuse but Halep is the proverbial Energiser bunny who can rally all day if necessary.

The record here stands at 3-2 in favour of Muguruza, with all of the Spaniard's wins on hardcourt while Halep has claimed hers on clay. The most recent of those clashes was at the previously mentioned French Open of 2018, and the last hardcourt meeting goes back to August 2017. Since then, their careers have diverged with Halep becoming a more rounded, all-surface player, and Muguruza dropping away until her resurgence in this tournament.

If Halep clears this hurdle, I can see her winning the title. This match, however, won't come easy. Muguruza at her best is a fearsome competitor and holds an advantage, particularly on hardcourt. It's Halep's resilience which wins me over here, but I'm expecting a concerted battle.

Best bet: 0.5pt Halep to win 2-1 at 3/1

Novak Djokovic v Roger Federer

With the injury doubts on Federer, I simply can't touch this one. Djokovic has had the wood on him in recent years in the big matches and has also had the much lighter workload in five rounds so far.

Federer's lucky to be here after saving seven matchpoints against Tennys Sandgren and will be hurting.

Djokovic has been priced up shorter than ever before in the history of the matchup, which is likely to be an accurate assessment of Federer's fitness. Father Time is catching up with him, he won't be shaking this groin issue off within 48hrs.

Let's hope I'm completely wrong and we get to watch a great match, but I'm happy to sit this one out.

No bet.

Preview posted 1750 GMT on 29/01/2019

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