Scott Ferguson has two main selections for the Australian Open at prices of 33/1 and 50/1 in his outright preview of the tournament.
Recommended bets
0.5pt e.w. Belinda Bencic to win the title at 33/1 (1/2 1,2)
0.25pt e.w. Amanda Anisimova to win the title at 50/1 (1/2 1,2)
0.5pt Elena Rybakina to win quarter one at 25/1
0.5pt Dayana Yastremska to win quarter two at 16/1
0.5pt Amanda Anisimova to win quarter four at 12/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
As noted in my preview of the men's tournament, the preliminary stages of the Australian Open have been in the headlines for the wrong reasons this week, with bushfire smoke engulfing Melbourne and making walking down the street difficult, let alone several sets of high intensity tennis.
But it's our job to focus on the sport alone and the women's tournament again takes the prize for most interesting betting heat.
Serena Williams, the greatest female player of all-time, seeks to equal Margaret Court's record of 24 Grand Slam singles titles, from the era of amateur players and when the Australian Open was just a token Slam with a vastly inferior field.
Williams hasn't won a major title since the Australian Open of 2017. Until a week ago in Auckland, she hadn't won any tournament since she played in the early stages of pregnancy. Four losses in major finals won't have dampened her desire to take Court's record; if anything, they will have narrowed her focus.
Beyond the seven-time champion and perennial tournament favourite, we have 11 other players with a Grand Slam singles title in their locker, and a bunch seeking to become ineligible for the 'best current player yet to win a major' award.
The contenders
Analysis of the contenders to topple Williams begins with ASH BARTY. The home soil heroine is seeking to become the first local Australian Open women's champion since Chris O'Neil in 1978. Reaching the quarters here last year, she then stepped up to win the French Open and claim the number one ranking. Round four appearances at Wimbledon and the US Open built up a solid lead in the WTA points race - a ranking she confirmed by winning the WTA Finals in Shenzhen.
She lost in the first round in Brisbane but reached the final that week in doubles, helping to blow out the off-season rust. Then she was set to play the Adelaide final at the time of writing. She's very relaxed so I'm not too concerned about the local media pressure upon her, but the draw has done her no favours.
Her likely third round opponent is Elena Rybakina who has won eight matches already in 2020 (about to play Hobart final), R4 has her Wimbledon conqueror Alison Riske or the very handy Petra Martic lined up, followed by Madison Keys or Petra Kvitova (who beat her here last year).
Then there's the small matter of either Naomi Osaka or Serena Williams in the semis. It's a horrible draw. She's a good number one without being a dominant force racking up title after title and I think her price should be into double figures. It would be one hell of a boost for the Aussie public though, in light of the bushfire crisis.
Looking next at ELENA RYBAKINA, who is player to watch for this year. The Kazakh has made a big leap in the rankings since the US Open (#69 to #30), regularly reaching the latter stages of smaller events.
In 2020 she has already reached the final in Shenzhen and Hobart, but she did pull up with a hip muscle injury in the semi-final on Friday against Heather Watson.
It will be unfortunate if that stops her momentum as she could catch better players off guard in her current form. She did win the final in Hobart so the hip problem can’t be too serious and she enters here as a live one.
For MADISON KEYS, the big-hitting American who was stopped in the fourth round of both the Australian and US Opens by Elena Svitolina last year (a player who seems to be able to dissect her on the big stage), it's a question of whether she can last the distance.
When she does have all her weapons working, she can beat anyone but the concern lies with her stamina. If she can't dominate in two sets, her win rate drops away, which is understandable considering she's built for power rather than scurrying from corner to corner chasing ball after ball.
She's usually seen in the second week but needs breaks to go her way to get through to the business end of an event.
Onto PETRA KVITOVA, the Czech leftie who hasn't won a major since Wimbledon in 2014 but still remains a threat. Runner-up to Osaka last year in a thriller, she regularly starts the year well with four tournament wins in Australia over the years.
This campaign she reached the semi-finals in Brisbane before withdrawing from Adelaide, citing fatigue after a week of humidity in Queensland. In a loaded quarter, she's capable of getting through at her very best.
The defending champion NAOMI OSAKA looked to have the world at her feet 12 months ago but then it seemingly all fell apart. She sacked her coach, was rumoured to find the new-found media attention too imposing, was blighted by a series of injuries and only won another two tournaments for the year, both in Asia post-US Open.
Her off-season was restricted by a shoulder injury incurred at the WTA Finals but she did look in good shape for her first event in Brisbane a week ago. Seemingly her life is back in balance again and she is equal second favourite in the outright market.
Her path to a title defence is blocked by Serena Williams at quarter-final level although Coco Gauff or Sofia Kenin could trouble her before that if she's not in peak form.
COCO GAUFF may still only be 15 but already loves the big stage. She will face Venus Williams in the first round, a repeat of the start of her Wimbledon fairytale. Her career is only going one way but still needs time before she can threaten in an event like this.
SOFIA KENIN is yet to show much in the majors although she did progress beyond the first round at each event in 2019. It's been a patchy start to the year, losing in the second round in Brisbane and Adelaide, but she has enough match wins under her belt now to go deeper in events. Kenin lost to Osaka in Brisbane but does hold a 2-2 record against her likely round four opponent.
I am expecting DAYANA YASTREMSKA to continue her rise up the rankings this season. Ranked 57 this time last year, she claimed two titles in 2019 and at the time of writing, is about to face Barty for the Adelaide trophy.
She plays an aggressive game from as high in the court as possible, sacrificing a bit of consistency for power. She could be the one to end Caroline Wozniacki's career in round two, but will need a bit of luck to surpass Serena Williams on a mission.
Then there's SERENA WILLIAMS who broke a three-year title drought with an impressive win in Auckland, against albeit a weaker field than she will face here.
She has of course been here and done that many, many times but she has also failed four times in major finals since her last win here, and at 38, the chances she has left to equal or surpass Court's record are fast running out.
She will look invincible most times she takes the court. It's how she reacts on the days she's a little off that will determine her fate. Of course, she's the logical favourite but she will still be one to back in week two if you want to follow her form.
After a promising start to BELINDA BENCIC's career was derailed by a series of injuries from 2016-18, it is great to see her reach a new high ranking. A semi-finalist at the US Open, she is capable on every surface and took a string of big scalps during 2019 as she jumped nearly fifty places.
Now safely into the top-eight, her draw is a cosy one which should enable her to blow off the remaining rust in her slow start to the season. The talent is there, but needs to improve her form with each round. She's a big price if she does and is worth a bet.
Big-hitting ARYNA SABALENKA finished last season by winning the Premier event in Wuhan and then the WTA Elite Trophy (next best outside the top eight, was won by Barty the previous year).
Sabalenka arrived in Australia in fine form, reaching the semis in Adelaide and dispatching Simona Halep along the way. She is yet to set the world alight in a Slam but specialises on hardcourts and has the draw to take it a long way.
26th seed DANIELLE COLLINS caused a stir here last year, reaching the semis without being seeded. She didn't have the toughest of draws but held her nerve well and has carried on her love affair with Australian conditions, reaching the quarters in Brisbane and losing the Adelaide semi-final to Barty in a third set tiebreak.
She hasn't won a regular tour title so it would be a shock to see her go all the way but she can provide more than nuisance value to the big seeds.
Romanian fourth seed SIMONA HALEP focused on a training block in Dubai rather than tournaments to start the year after a series of injuries plagued the back half of her 2019 campaign.
She resumed later than most in Adelaide, the home town of her coach Darren Cahill, but only managed two matches, losing to Sabalenka. That has left her a bit light on match practice but she should have enough time to work her way into the seven-round tournament.
A finalist here two years ago and last year's Wimbledon champion, she is certainly more than just a clay-courter as she is often labelled. At her peak, she should win this quarter but the likes of Collins, Bencic and Sabalenka are capable of sending her home if given the opportunity.
Ukrainian world number five ELENA SVITOLINA enjoyed a consistent 2019, reaching two Slam semi-finals and the quarter-finals here, but seemingly lacks that killer instinct to threaten in the latter stages.
She has added the recently-retired Marcos Baghdatis to her entourage for some additional Grand Slam expertise. Still, as suggested by her position in the outright market, she's thereabouts but not seen as a genuine contender.
After bursting onto the scene last year reaching the French Open semi-finals, the remainder of AMANDA ANISIMOVA's season was torn apart by the death of her father and coach in the lead-up to the US Open. That was on top of several weeks out with a back injury, and effectively put paid to the rest of her season.
Since then she has teamed up with Carlos Rodriguez, best known for working with Justine Henin and Na Li, so her management team at IMG have brought in Grand Slam-quality coaching.
Her season started in Auckland, reaching the semi-finals there before facing Serena on an absolute tear, salvaging only two games. There's a long way to go in her career but this section of the draw is open if she can put it altogether. Like so many of young prodigies, the big stage holds no fears and 50/1 looks generous.
KIKI BERTENS withdrew from Adelaide last week to manage a chronic achilles problem. The Belgian began the year with three solid matches in Brisbane, defeating Dayana Yastremska and Anett Kontaveit before losing in three to Osaka.
She managed no better than the third round in any of the Slams last season and needs to make an impact if she is to ever be deemed a contender.
French Open runner-up MARKETA VONDROUSOVA has only recently returned from six months off after surgery on her left wrist, but three matches in Adelaide, including three sets won 6-0, suggest her game is in decent shape.
It's a big ask to dive straight back into the fire, remembering she was unseeded in Paris, but it's not the toughest of draws.
2016 champion ANGELIQUE KERBER turns 32 today (Saturday) but is facing a task to be fit for the tournament after retiring with lower back and hamstring problems in Adelaide last week.
She is 4-9 since Wimbledon and will be looking to put that behind her under new coach Didi Kindlmann but the injury looks to be related to problems she had last season.
A fresh start could turn it all around for her but I fear she might have her mind on a career beyond playing.
KAROLINA PLISKOVA, the player deemed next most likely to win a Slam, now has 30 major main draws behind her for the best result of a single final (US Open 2016). I have been guilty of expecting her to take the final step but she keeps finding ways not to progress to the next level.
She went close here last year, defeating Serena in the quarter-final before losing to eventual champion Osaka in the semi. At Wimbledon, she lost to Karolina Muchova in the fourth round. In New York it was to Johanna Konta, and the last two are players she should be beating.
She arrives here in solid form, beating Osaka and Keys on the way to the Brisbane title, but it's once bitten, twice shy I'm afraid. I don't have the confidence in her when the pressure is on and will look to oppose her until she proves otherwise.
The first major of the season is never simple to unravel and for the outrights, I'm going to stick to a few speculative bets rather than anything with a high degree of confidence.
Expect more action on a day-by-day basis as we find the value in individual matches.
Odds correct at 1535 GMT (18/01/20)
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