Tennis betting tips: ATP Dubai & Sao Paulo preview

Having got Carlos Berlocq to the last four in Buenos Aires in his last tennis preview at the same price, our man has a 66/1 shot for the action in Dubai where both Andy Murray and Roger Federer return to action.

He's also keen on two Brazilians in their home event in Sao Paulo this week.

Recommended bets:

2pts Roger Federer to win the Dubai Duty Free Championships at 7/2 – seven-time winner who has started the season superbly; won last 5 against main title rival

0.5pt e.w. Dan Evans to win the Dubai Duty Free Championships at 66/1 – price looks big about a player who has two top-10 wins already this season & is in weaker half

1pt e.w. Thomaz Bellucci to win the Brasil Open at 14/1 – strong performer on home soil & top half of the draw looks weak

0.5pt Thiago Monteiro to win the Brasil Open at 33/1 – has shown some good form in past fortnight; home support could propel him further this week

ATP Dubai Duty Free Championships, Dubai, UAE

Andy Murray and Roger Federer both play for the first time since the Australian Open in Dubai this week and many tennis fans will be licking their lips at a prospect of a semi-final between the pair.

It is worth noting that Melbourne champion Federer has won his last five meetings with Murray, who crashed out in the last 16 Down Under to Mischa Zverev.

In what are pretty much ideal conditions for the Swiss here, he’s managed to win the title seven times over the years, including on his last two visits. The best Murray has managed is a runner-up showing in 2012.

In fact the post-Australian Open period has often been a fallow one for the Briton over the years, notably in Indian Wells, but his record here is also a poor one for a player of his quality.

It’s therefore fairly easy to suggest that Federer is the better bet at 7/2 (Ladbrokes, Stan James), as opposed to the world number one who is the 7/4 favourite.

Judging by recent comments, Federer seems to still be buzzing in the afterglow of his Australian Open success and, following a leg problem picked up in Melbourne, is now practising “at 100 per cent” again.

He admits that preparation hasn’t been ideal but added: “Because it’s fast courts, best-of-three (sets), I’ll be fine.”

All things considered, Federer looks a fair-enough bet in this section of the draw but I’m also tempted to look for something bigger in the bottom half which looks much more open.

Stan Wawrinka is the man seeded to make the final and is the defending champion. However, while Wawrinka has found the knack of bringing his best to the top events – he’s won a Grand Slam title in each of the last three years – he’s openly admitted his consistency hasn’t been great over the same period with too many early-round losses for his - and most punters’ – liking.

He’s in the same quarter as Tomas Berdych, a man who has a strong record in Dubai, making two finals and three semis in the last six years.

While the Czech warrants respect, long-standing readers will know he’s a man who’s frustrated me once too often with his regular semi-final losses.

Instead I think it’s worthwhile backing Briton Dan Evans in this section at a whopping 66/1 (bet365, William Hill, Stan James) given what we’ve seen from him so far this season.

He’s finished runner-up in Sydney where he beat Dominic Thiem and went on to defeat another top-10 star, Marin Cilic, at the Australian Open, as well as Bernard Tomic, before losing in the fourth round of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in four sets.

A Davis Cup loss to Vasek Pospisil on the lightning-fast courts of Ottawa can be overlooked. Conditions won’t be as slick here but the fast-medium pace will allow Evans to feel he’s got a real chance if he can reproduce his form of January.

Having withdrawn from Montpellier after his early-season efforts, Evans has rested up nicely over the past few weeks and should be raring to go again.

He’s got the mercurial Dustin Brown up first before a likely clash with Gael Monfils, who fits the same description and who managed to win only one round on the slick courts of Marseille last week.

Roberto Bautista Agut would be Evans’ quarter-final foe by seeding and the Spanish wild card would prefer slower courts than this.

Wawrinka or Berdych could then stand between Evans and an each-way payout and while the Briton would clearly be the outsider, he’s shown with his wins over Thiem and Cilic he’s capable in such company, while it should also be remembered he came within a point of defeating Wawrinka at last season’s US Open.

At the price, Evans is worth a punt.

ATP Brasil Open, Sao Paulo, Brazil

South America’s ‘Golden Swing’ of claycourt tournaments reaches its conclusion this week in Sao Paulo with the field packed with specialist dirtballers.

However, a sift through the form shows a large number really struggling for form, including two-time defending champion Pablo Cuevas, who has gone 0-2 so far during the past month.

In the top half of the draw, I’m happy to put him and top seed Pablo Carreno Busta in the ‘no’ pile, the latter has been to the semis in Buenos Aires and final in Rio over the past two weeks and while he’s clearly playing well, that’s a lot of tennis to have in your legs on slow clay surfaces.

One of few players in the half with good form is local resident Thomaz Bellucci, who is chalked up at 14/1.

The lefty made the semis in Quito at the start of the month and last week beat Kei Nishikori in Rio before, admittedly, failing to back it up in the next round.

However, he’s been the last four here twice before and also performed admirably at last year’s Olympics in his homeland.

Bellucci likes performing in front of his home crowd and if they can help him through a tricky opener against sixth seed Diego Schwartzman, against whom he holds a 2-1 career head-to-head record, then he will have every chance.

In the bottom half, Albert Ramos-Vinolas is a worthy favourite given his form of SF-QF-SF in the three weeks of the swing thus far.

But again that’s a lot of tennis played and given he’s failed at the business in weeks gone by, is this really likely to be the time when that changes?

I can swerve him at 9/2 and instead turn to another Brazilian in the shape of Thiago Monteiro.

He made the last eight here 12 months ago and in the past fortnight has gone QF-QF in Buenos Aries and Rio, beating Quito champion Victor Estrella Burgos (for the loss of three games), former top-10er Tommy Robredo and the aforementioned Bellucci. They can all be deemed good wins.

Monteiro is another with an awkward first-round clash. He faces Carlos Berlocq, a player who ended his Buenos Aires run two weeks ago (yes, I’m still getting over him blowing a break-of-serve lead in the final set of his semi-final there having tipped him up at 66s).

However, that three-set win was achieved in a raucous, partisan atmosphere and the boot will be very much on the other foot this week. It’s 1-1 overall on their head-to-head and I think the Brazilian can come through that and set himself up for another decent run.

At 33/1 (bet365, Betfred), I think it’s worth finding out.

ATP Abierto Mexicano Telcel, Acapulco, Mexico

Both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will play in this hardcourt event but at time of writing, the draw had yet to be made.

Posted at 1800 GMT on 26/02/17.