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ATP tennis betting tips: Andy Schooler's Newport, Bastad & Umag preview
Fresh from Wimbledon profits in both the men's and ladies' singles, Andy Schooler brings you his best bets for this week's ATP action.
It’s been a good grasscourt season for followers of this column.
There was a 20/1 winner in the form of Lucas Pouille in Stuttgart. At Queen’s, Marin Cilic made a profit as a 16/1 each-way shot by reaching the final (it would have been a bigger one had he taken match point in that match).
Then at Wimbledon, both the men’s and ladies’ previews reaped rewards with Roger Federer winning at 23/10 and Venus Williams finishing runner-up having been tipped at 16/1 each-way.
And despite the fact that Wimbledon is now done and dusted, the grasscourt action continues this week in Newport, Rhode Island.
However, with three ATP World Tour events taking place, my best bets for this week’s action come on the claycourts of Europe. Here are my thoughts…
Recommended bets: ATP World Tour
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SkiStar Swedish Open, Bastad, outdoor clay
The thing that strikes me about the draw at this tournament, one which often wins awards from the players for its hospitality, is that it looks lop-sided.
Four of the top six in the betting are in the bottom half. This section also features four players who have been to the semi-finals or better in the past; the top half has none.
My main fancy, Pablo Cuevas, is actually among those in the bottom half but it definitely makes sense to look for a potential big-priced finalist from the opposite side given it looks much weaker.
I’ll start with Cuevas. The Uruguayan is enjoying his best season yet, one which has already taken in the title on the clay of Sao Paulo. There he beat both Pablo Carreno Busta and Albert Ramos-Vinolas – his two main title rivals this week.
He’s also had success at a higher level with a first Masters semi-final in Madrid, where he beat Alex Zverev (winner in Rome the following week). That effort came shortly after reaching the last eight in Monte Carlo where Stan Wawrinka was among his victims. It’s also worth mentioning he made the quarter-finals on the Indian Wells hardcourt Masters tournament.
Cuevas loves the clay and has shown a propensity for Bastad too – his last two appearances have seen him win (2014) and reach the semis (2015).
With a first-round bye he only needs to win four matches to claim the title and all things considered he looks a decent bet at 7/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral).
Admittedly there are potentially awkward matches in store.
Mikael Ymer made the semis of a Challenger event at this venue last week and he could be Cuevas’ first opponent. However, he needed a wild card to be here and isn’t yet at Cuevas’ level. Thomaz Bellucci, another I considered when doing my research given his 40/1 price, could also cause problems.
But Cuevas has the class to see off everyone in this field, including Ramos-Vinolas, a possible semi-final foe.
The defending champion will be fancied by many but he’s set to face the winner of that aforementioned Challenger, Dusan Lajovoic, in his opening match and that’s no gimme whatsoever. Fernando Verdasco, twice a runner-up and twice a semi-finalist here, is also in his quarter.
For me Cuevas and Ramos-Vinolas should not be the same price.
I’m also keen to swerve top seed Pablo Carreno Busta, who was last seen retiring from the French Open six weeks ago and am happy to take him on in the top half.
After his upset of Juan Martin Del Potro at Wimbledon, some will turn to Ernests Gulbis here but for me it’s Andrey Kuznetsov and Nikoloz Basilashvili who are the men to back.
Russian Kuznetsov is a possible first opponent for Carreno Busta and holds a 4-1 winning record against the Spaniard, including all three claycourt meetings. He’s also beaten him last year on a hardcourt.
That’s pretty impressive and his form isn’t bad either. He’s been to the semis in Geneva (where he beat Ramos-Vinolas) on clay this term, plus the last eight in Budapest.
He also pushed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych all the way on this surface in Madrid and Monte Carlo respectively.
He’s no 40/1 shot for me.
Basilashvili is an even bigger price and isn’t being given the respect he deserves.
The Georgian beat both Viktor Troicki and Gilles Simon at Roland Garros as he made the last 32 and the week before that reached the semis in Lyon, falling only to eventual champion Tsonga in three sets.
In addition, he’s already made an ATP final this year having finished runner-up in Memphis.
Basil faces seed Horacio Zeballos first but the Argentine has last seen withdrawing through injury at a Challenger last week and I just don’t see why our man is available at 100/1 (BetVictor).
He took a set off eventual semi-finalist Sam Querrey at Wimbledon and also hit the tournament’s fastest serve which adds further fuel to our fire. He has to be worth a small dabble.
Plava Laguna Croatia Open, Umag, outdoor clay
In Croatia, the top three seeds are all well-known names capable of winning but there are good reasons to oppose the trio at the prices.
David Goffin heads the field but this will be his first outing since a tussle with the court covers at Roland Garros. Thankfully his ankle injury is not as bad as first feared but I wouldn’t be backing him at odds of no bigger than 5/2 this week, at least until I’ve seen he’s 100 per cent.
Gael Monfils leads the other half of the draw but the fact I’m describing the Frenchman as mercurial tells you all you need to know. He’s been a semi-finalist here twice in the past and it’s notable that he’s playing here before heading on to the North American hardcourts but the fact is he’s not won a title on clay since 2005. He’s as short as 5/2 here. No thanks.
And if Monfils is mercurial I’m struggling for (polite) words to describe Fognini. What I would say about the feisty Italian is he’s shown greater consistency here than virtually anywhere else – he’s won once, finished runner-up on another occasion and made three more semi-finals. However, he remains capable of exploding at any moment and also had an injury issue at Wimbledon only 10 days ago.
I’ll oppose the favourites with one from the top and one from the bottom.
In Goffin’s top section, Carlos Berlocq is worth chancing at 50/1 (BetVictor, Paddy Power).
The Argentine has also shown he likes it here. He made the semis 12 months ago and three other visits have seen him make the quarter-finals.
He faces Borna Coric first up but the young Croatian is very hit and miss and also has the added pressure to deal with of being the home favourite. The fact he’s yet to go beyond the last eight doesn’t suggest he thrives on the home experience.
Berlocq is also level at 1-1 with Fognini – the pair could meet in the quarter-finals – with a 6-3 6-0 victory in Buenos Aires two years ago showing exactly what can happen with the Italian.
Another tick for Berlocq is that he’s won during this week of the tour in the past – that success coming in Bastad – while his other ATP crown also came on the clay of Europe.
We were tantilisingly close to landing a big payout with Berlocq in Buenos Aires back in February when the 66/1 poke led Kei Nishikori by a break in the final set of their semi-final only for things to go wrong from there.
At 50/1 in this field, I feel he’s worth backing again.
In the bottom half, Briton Aljaz Bedene’s form is too good to ignore and he should be supported at 25s with Betfred.
He’s 21-4 on clay this season and while plenty of those matches have come on the second-division Challenger circuit, he’s proved that the confidence built at that level has helped him conquer strong opponents on the main tour.
We made a profit with him in Budapest earlier this season when he made the final and I think he’s got another good chance to do so this week.
He arrives on the back of a good grasscourt campaign, despite the surface supposedly being his weakest.
He made the quarter-finals in Den Bosch and the third round at Wimbledon and now he’s back in his more natural domain.
His draw will put some off but not me.
First-round opponent Joao Sousa has reached the final here before (2015) but Bedene was a convincing winner of their only previous encounter and certainly brings the better form into the clash.
A meeting with fourth seed Paolo Lorenzi would follow but the Italian has beaten only one top-50 player on clay this season and Bedene will be a member of the top 50 again come Monday. The pair have yet to meet.
Dell Technologies Hall of Fame Open, Newport, outdoor grass
Given how well things have gone on the grass for us in recent weeks, I had hoped to find a tasty price in this weak field – only two top-50 players will be present following a spate of withdrawals.
They are John Isner and Ivo Karlovic, both of whom are former champions here and are quite frankly worthy favourites.
In the bottom half, Adrian Mannarino is probably the man most likely to challenge the leading duo but the bookies are wise to that. He’s no bigger than 8/1.
The Frenchman made the final of a similarly-weak event in Antalya prior to Wimbledon and he went on to win three matches at the All England Club before falling to Novak Djokovic in the last 16. He has twice been to the quarter-finals here.
However, he’s also in the same quarter as Rajeev Ram, the other man who had been on my shortlist.
The big-serving veteran is a two-time winner here, most recently in 2015, but his form has not been good in 2017 and for that reason I can’t be backing him at 10/1. I was hoping for at least twice that but the paucity of the field means the bookies aren’t giving much away and I can understand that.
If you are really wanting a long shot, Akira Santillan in the top half is possibly worth a shot at 66/1.
The Japanese-born Australian won a Challenger in Illinois on hardcourts last week so should bring plenty of confidence to Rhode Island where he’s landed in what looks a pretty soft part of the draw – there’s no doubt the top half is the weaker of the two.
He won a few matches on the grass in Surbiton last month and was only beaten 13-11 in the final set in Wimbledon qualifying by Denis Kudla, a player who has been ranked much higher in the past.
Posted at 2110 BST on 16/07/17.