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ATP tennis betting tips: Eastbourne & Antalya preview
After another profitable week, Andy Schooler picks out his best bets for this week's ATP action in Eastbourne and Antalya.
Last week's preview produced another profit with 16/1 each-way shot Marin Cilic making the final at Queen's but it could have been so much better.
Cilic didn't lose his serve in the final and held match point in the final-set tie-break but still lost to Feliciano Lopez - all this after Lopez had taken out our other pick, Girgor Dimitrov, in the semis.
It's weeks like that which leave you feeling like you've been mugged but taking the positives, the fact is there's more money in the bank than there was seven days ago and this week provides the chance for more profits.
It's the week before a Grand Slam and those have often produced a surprise winner or at least finalist - think Mischa Zverev at a big price at last month's Geneva Open prior to Roland Garros.
So, back on the horse, here we go...
Recommended bets: ATP World Tour
Aegon International, Eastbourne, outdoor grass
Novak Djokovic’s loss of form has proved a major boon for organisers of the Aegon International.
For the first time since 2010, the Serb has decided to play an ATP tournament between the French Open and Wimbledon and that perhaps says much about where his mind is right now.
The general consensus has long been that if you want to win a Grand Slam, don’t go playing the week before.
That view was purveyed this week by former Wimbledon champion Pat Cash, who told Eurosport: “I don’t believe players should be playing the week before, particularly the men where they’ve got big five-set matches coming up.”
However, Cash was also keen to point out: “He does need matches.
“Novak is underdone and he’s had a patchy year so it’s only going to be a good thing for him to come down and get some matches.
“He’d like a few matches, I don’t know if he’d still want to be playing on Saturday to be totally honest, if he’s going to be playing on Monday (at Wimbledon).”
Therein lies the potential problem with finding tournament winners the week before a Slam and it’s been a long-running theme in my previews of such weeks – which players will really be giving absolutely everything to win when they have such an important tournament coming up?
The other pitfall I always point out is the worry about injuries during such weeks. Even the slightest tweak can result in a player withdrawing.
For these reasons, I believe that those towards the head of the market are usually worth swerving in a week like this.
Certainly that’s my view with 5/4 shot Djokovic, who has hardly been pulling up trees this season.
He hasn’t played on grass in a year and was last seen losing a 6-0 set to Dominic Thiem at the French Open where his coaching situation was hardly cleared up.
Andre Agassi turned up for the first week but had left the country by the time of the Thiem loss. A search for a more regular travelling partner continues.
If you fancy backing Djokovic, I’d suggest backing him for Wimbledon as if he does win here his odds will shorten having drifted to a tempting current level of 13/2.
For Eastbourne, I’ll look elsewhere.
I’m after players who will be prioritising this week and also ones who won’t be hugely fazed by the windy conditions which are often present at Devonshire Park.
First up, I’m going for Sam Querrey, whose game looked in good nick at Queen’s Club last week where he made the quarter-finals before losing narrowly to Gilles Muller.
The American’s big serve was firing well and is always a weapon on the grass.
He made the semi-finals the last time the tournament was held at this venue in 2014 (it moved to Nottingham for both 2015 and 2016), while who can forget Querrey’s Wimbledon victory over Djokovic last season?
That could become relevant should the pair meet again in the last four this week.
Querrey isn’t likely to win Wimbledon so focusing on maintaining his form seems likely this week and you only have to go back two years to see he’s given his all the week before Wimbledon – he made the Nottingham final on that occasion.
He does have a potentially-tricky opener against Daniil Medvedev, another to catch the eye at Queen’s, but the young Russian also left west London nursing a shoulder problem.
Compatriot Steve Johnson is Querrey’s seeded quarter-final foe but our man leads that head-to-head 3-0.
All things considered, 20/1 about Querrey is enough to tempt me in.
With such a hot favourite, it also makes sound sense to find an each-way pick in the bottom half – although the layers are only offering a third of the odds for a place in the final on this occasion.
I considered Richard Gasquet, a player with a strong grasscourt record. Twice a semi-finalist at Wimbledon, he enjoyed an impressive run in Halle last week where he made the last four.
However, that also raises the question of whether he wants five more matches in his legs this week, while Gasquet has also had injury issues of late with both back and thigh mentioned at the recent French Open.
At 14/1 not backing him could turn out to be an expensive mistake but I’ll take that risk.
The bottom quarter looks pretty weak and this is where I’ll opt to take a chance on Bernard Tomic.
I mentioned the Aussie’s propsensity for grass a couple of weeks ago and while he failed to win back-to-back matches in either Stuttgart or Halle in the past fortnight, defeats to Tomas Berdych and Gasquet are not the sort to be of too much concern.
Those losses also mean he’ll be keen to go deep this week and his draw does give him a decent opportunity to do so.
Qualifier Norbert Gombos is first up with Mischa Zverev likely to follow.
Stuttgart semi-finalist Zverev is one I also considered but rejected given he’s never played at Eastbourne before and won’t even get a decent practice there having played in the Halle doubles final on Sunday.
Tomic, on the other hand, does have course experience – he made the quarter-finals in 2013, one of three previous apperances.
A draw which also sees grassphobe Gael Monfils in the section gives him an opportunity to go further than before and at 25/1 I’ll take a chance that this is one of Tomic’s good weeks.
Antalya Open, Antalya, outdoor grass
This is a brand-new event added to the grasscourt season so there’s no course form to go on.
However, organisers have had help to prepare their courts from the All England Club so the surfaces should be fairly decent.
If you’re a new tournament you often struggle to attract a great field and with Turkey being some distance from Wimbledon, it’s probably no surprise that only one member of the top 30 will be in attendance.
It’s also no surprise, given he’ll play almost anywhere, that the player in question is world number eight Dominic Thiem.
Understandably he’s the clear favourite and he’s cleaned up at such 250 events before – six of his eight ATP titles have come at this level.
However, he did lose to Robin Haase in the second round of Halle last week and 15/8 isn’t a price I’ll be going near.
Sadly I’m struggling to find a big-priced outsider with decent claims which can so often prove profitable in these pre-Slam weeks.
However, I’m going to take a punt on David Ferrer at 18/1.
The general consensus is that the Spaniard is now over the hill and given the former world number three has lost more matches than he’s won in 2017 you can see the argument.
However, Ferrer is more au fait with the grass than most in this field which is a good trait to have and he’s also landed in a particularly weak part of the draw. Ferrer has more tour-level wins than quarter foes Yuchi Sugita, Matt Ebden, Daniel Altmaier, Victor Estrella Burgos, Marsel Ilhan and Martin Klizan put together.
As fourth seed, Ferrer will only need to win three matches to make us a profit and so the price looks more than fair.
While I don’t doubt he’s not the player he once was, Ferrer has always been a player happy to play - and win – the week before Wimbledon. He claimed the Den Bosch title on multiple occasions when it was contested in this week of the calendar.
Neither has his renowned fighting spirit regressed so a small play looks worthwhile.
That said, the man I like the best in Antalya is Fernando Verdasco in the bottom half.
He’s had some really good weeks on the tour in 2017 – think Doha and Dubai - and is another who knows how to play on this surface.
He’ll want matches this week having had a tough draw in Halle last week where he lost to Kei Nishikori in round one but he played well in that encounter only losing 6-4 in the final set.
Verdasco delivered 14 aces in that one and his big left-handed serve is a major advantage on the grass.
Like Ferrer, he has a first-round bye with his opener coming against Steve Darcis. For me, he’s the player to beat in the bottom half despite Karen Khachanov being rated more likely by the bookies.
The Russian made the semis in Halle (with the help of a walkover) but hasn’t much experience of backing up the following week so 8/1 looks short enough.
Verdasco is at 10/1 and a small win bet is the way I’m going.
He’s beaten Thiem in their only previous match, which also happened to be on grass, so if they do clash in the final then the Spaniard will certainly not be a massive underdog.
Where to watch on TV: Eastbourne - Eurosport
Posted at 1750 BST on 25/06/17.