Our Andy Schooler brings you his tips for this week's ATP events with a 20/1 headline pick and a 200/1 outsider.
Recommended bets: ATP World Tour
Click here for our transparent tipping record.
La Decima for Rafael Nadal - forget it.
The grasscourt season has arrived and the countdown to Wimbledon is on.
Roger Federer takes centre stage in Stuttgart this week, while there are two top-10 stars on show in Den Bosch on the ATP World Tour.
Following a disappointing French Open – I’ll take a crumb of comfort that my main tip for the women’s title Sam Stosur only lost to eventual champion Jelena Ostapenko - it’s back on the tipping horse for those two events.
Here are my views on this week’s action.
MercedesCup, Stuttgart, outdoor grass
For many, this tournament is all about the return of Roger Federer – the man who dominated the first quarter of the year as he won the Australian Open, Indian Wells and Miami.
Given his stunning start to 2017 it was no great surprise to see him skip the claycourt season to focus on a bid for a record eighth Wimbledon title and, after a break of more than two months, he will now try to deliver on that.
He’s odds-on with most firms to start his grasscourt season with another title and given how he’s played so far this season, his superb surface record and that fact that no other top-10 player is in attendance in Stuttgart, it’s easy to see why the bookies are taking no chances.
However, that could be good news for punters.
As much as Federer on January to March form would surely win here, that two-month lay-off – he last played competitively on April 2 – has to offer up some doubt to anyone thinking of backing him at odds as short as 4/7.
He’s looked scratchy on occasions in the past in Halle when he’s moved onto the grass for the first time, although admittedly this year he’s had plenty more time to prepare.
In terms of the draw, veteran Tommy Haas (a potential opening opponent) is a player who has beaten Federer on grass in the past, while a quarter-final with Mischa Zverev would also be most interesting with the German sure to rush the net at every opportunity.
If you do feel Federer could be vulnerable, the two men to consider in his half are Bernard Tomic and Florian Mayer, both of whom have strong grasscourt records.
Tomic has been poor this season but if anything is to spark him into life it’s the grass.
The Aussie himself was suggesting so after a heavy but expected loss to Dominic Thiem at the French Open.
“Last year I played terrible on clay and I played very well on grass,” he pointed out.
“I’m feeling pretty well.
“I didn’t play that good on clay last year. This year better.”
He was 1-5 on the red stuff in 2016, 3-5 this year.
He’s 80/1 this week at a venue where he pushed Rafael Nadal to three sets in their 2015 quarter-final.
However, Mayer is probably the better bet at 80/1.
He’s also been pretty miserable this term but recently ended a losing streak by winning two matches on clay and he’ll also be relishing the change of surface.
Last year he was the surprise champion in Halle when on few people's radar and also made the last eight here before losing to Federer in two tie-break sets.
In fact, Mayer’s last three sets against Federer (all on grass) have gone to a breaker, showing the Swiss hasn’t always been able to make inroads on his serve.
Twice a quarter-finalist at Wimbledon, Mayer has the draw to work his way into the tournament before a potential last-eight clash with Tomas Berdych.
The Czech has just ditched coach Goran Ivanisevic though and you wonder whether he’ll be trying something new here which, after a disappointing season so far, could backfire.
Federer could well be be waiting in the semis but Mayer certainly offers some value, particularly to back-to-lay punters.
A bet more likely to deliver a profit is to back Lucas Pouille each-way in the bottom half – note that the bookies are paying only a third of the odds for a place in the final.
NetBet and 10Bet have the Frenchman at 20/1 which is simply too big, particularly when you consider he only needs to win three matches to earn an each-way profit (as fourth seed he has a first-round bye).
Last year's Wimbledon quarter-finalist (he beat Juan Martin Del Potro and Tomic among others) will probably play a qualifier first up with Steve Johnson seeded to be his last-eight foe.
I also considered Johnson, who won on grass in Nottingham last season. However, the American must play a round more, is the same price, will have to beat a good grasscourter in either Philipp Kohlschreiber or Marcos Baghdatis in round two and has also lost his only previous meeting with Pouille.
In addition, Johnson must still be grieving over the recent death of his father.
At the price, Pouille is definitely the bet.
The man seeded to make the final in the bottom half is Grigor Dimitrov – Pouille’s scheduled semi-final foe – but the former Wimbledon semi-finalist has seen his form dip since a strong start to the year which took in the Australian Open semis and the title in Sofia.
Perhaps a return to the grass will work the oracle but at a top price of 5/1 I’m not prepared to pay to find out.
Instead it might be worth taking a shot with Nikoloz Basilashvili at a whopping 200/1 in the bottom quarter.
The Georgian is enjoying a fine season on the ATP World Tour and he’s already been to the semis in Sofia, Memphis (which plays pretty fast) and Lyon.
He hasn’t played that much on grass but he did beat Feliciano Lopez on the surface at Wimbledon in 2015 when he made it through to the third round.
That is no mean feat and given his strong form it certainly suggests there’s something in his locker to work with.
He’s got a qualifier first up (and standout grasscourters are notable by their absence in the final round) before a likely meeting with Viktor Troicki, a player he’s just beaten at the French Open.
The odds here just look too big and a minimum-stakes play is advised.
Ricoh Open, ‘s-Hertogenbosch, outdoor grass
There are two top-10 players in the draw at the long-running Dutch event in Den Bosch, or Rosmalen, to which it is often referred.
Marin Cilic and Alex Zverev are the men in question and they duly take their place at head of the market.
But a quirk of fate in the draw gives both tricky opening matches to the new grasscourt campaign.
Both could face players already bedded in on the surface.
Cilic could meet Yuichi Sugita, champion at the Challenger Tour event in Surbiton this weekend, while the man Sugita beat in the final, Jordan Thompson, is a potential first opponent for Zverev.
I doubt either seed will be relishing such a meeting as they take their first tentative, slippery steps onto the grass and it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that neither is around come the quarter-finals.
Despite beating Federer last season in Halle, Zverev has never won a grasscourt title and, of the two, I’d pick Cilic, who appears the more natural on the surface.
However, neither player’s price enthuses me and I’d prefer to take a chance on Denis Istomin in the bottom half at 33/1.
The Uzbek won his only ATP title on grass in Nottingham two years ago and while his form has dipped since his stunning upset of Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open, he’s a player I’m expecting to up his game following the surface switch.
On top of his Nottingham success, he’s been to the last 16 of Wimbledon in the past, as well as the semi-finals in Eastbourne (twice), while last year he defeated both Kevin Anderson and Nicolas Almagro in SW19.
Istomin's draw seems decent enough with Aljaz Bedene, a player who has won a lot on clay of late but rarely performs on grass, first up.
Then would come another grassphobe in Hyeon Chung, or Ernesto Escobado, who Istomin beat only last week in Paris.
Last year’s runner-up Gilles Muller would be a tougher test in the quarter-finals. He’ll tempt some at 9/1 in the outright market but those who take that risk should note that Istomin holds a 2-0 head-to-head against the man from Luxembourg, including one meeting on grass.
The other man in this section who warrants repsect is three-time winner and defending champion Nicolas Mahut.
However, whereas he won at 100/1 here a couple of years ago, Mahut’s price is now just 10/1. He’s also 35 and not enjoying the same level of success in his favoured doubles format as he was 12 months ago.
He could well challenge again but I feel he can be taken on and doing so with Istomin is certainly worthy of consideration.
Where to watch: The Stuttgart event is being shown on Eurosport.
Posted at 1745 BST on 11/06/17.
