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Dusan Lajovic: Decent bet at 33/1 in Moscow

Free tennis betting tips: Andy Schooler previews ATP Moscow, Antwerp and Stockholm

Tennis

Mon October 16, 2017 · 7y ago

After a profitable Shanghai Masters, our Andy Schooler has a 33/1 shot among his tips for this week's three ATP tournaments.

Roger Federer brought the curtain down on the Asian swing with another masterclass on Sunday, delivering a 27th Masters 1000 title for himself and profits for this column – the Swiss having been advised at 11/4.

It’s back to the Europe for the remainder of the season with the ATP World Tour heading indoors.

The trend of slowing court speeds in recent years means we’re not necessarily looking for big-serving, aggressive players of the Boris Becker ilk – the German loved this time of year in his heyday.

With this in mind, here’s my assessment of the week’s three tournaments in Moscow, Antwerp and Stockholm.

VTB Kremlin Cup, indoor hard, Moscow, Russia

Moscow will likely provide the slowest conditions of the week.

That helps explain why Pablo Carreno Busta arrives as the defending champion but the Spaniard is yet to win since his run to the US Open semi-finals, managing just four games as he bowed out in Beijing and then losing his opener to Albert Ramos-Vinolas in Shanghai.

At a best price of 11/2, I’m happy to take him on and will do so in the top half of the draw with Damir Dzumhur.

The Bosnian delivered a 25/1 winner for this column in St Petersburg last month and has continued his good form since.

He went straight to Shenzhen where he beat Alex Zverev en route to the semi-finals and then pushed Grigor Dimitrov to a final set in Beijing.

A first-round loss in Shanghai last week can be forgiven and actually taken as a positive given the amount of tennis he’s played of late and he’ll have had almost a full week to recover from the jet lag and get used to the new conditions – ones which should suit his game.

Andreas Seppi and Philipp Kohlschreiber both have good Moscow records in Dzumhur’s section of the draw but both are out of form with the latter having not played since an injury withdrawal in St Petersburg.

Strong on return, Dzumhur should create opportunities for himself in these conditions and it is worth noting that he leads the tour for break points converted this year.

Damir Dzumhur: In good form

Sadly the price is nowhere near the level it was in St Petersburg but in what looks a pretty weak field – Carreno Busta will be the only top-20 player on show – the Bosnian looks worthy of support at 12/1 (Betfred).

In the opposite half, I’m also going to take a chance of Dusan Lajovic, another player who should enjoy the slow conditions.

The Serb enjoyed Indian Wells back in the spring where he beat Frances Tiafoe and Feliciano Lopez as he reached the last 16.

The courts there are not fast and while the ball probably won’t bounce as high here, Lajovic is still worth backing.

He showed signs of some good form in Asia, beating Ramos-Vinolas in Chengdu as he made the quarter-finals and narrowly lost to John Isner in Shanghai last week, going down 7-6 in the final set having held match point. He looked crestfallen at the time but will be able to take plenty of positives forward.

Lajovic starts against Ricardas Berankis, only playing thanks to his protected ranking, and could then meet the enigmatic Andrey Rublev. A rematch with Ramos-Vinolas could follow in the quarter-finals and with eighth seed Karan Khachanov havign already withdrawn from the half, this looks to be a wide-open section of the draw.

At 33/1 (Betfair, BetVictor, Betfred), Lajovic is worth chancing to take advantage.

European Open, indoor hard, Antwerp, Belgium

David Goffin starts as the favourite in his home country and will certainly have his backers at 7/2.

Having led Belgium to a second Davis Cup final in three years, Goffin continued to ride his wave by collecting titles in Shenzhen and Tokyo so will clearly arrive in good form.

An early defeat to Gilles Simon in Shanghai, as predicted by this column, was no surprise following those back-to-back successes and you can be sure he’ll be motivated for this event, one in which he reached the semi-finals last season.

However, delivering under such pressure isn’t easy and I think Diego Schwartzman, at almost three times the price, is the bet here.

The Argentine was the player to took down Goffin in last year’s semi-final and while Goffin has won both of their encounters since, each has been tight, including a 7-6 7-6 win for the Belgian in the last four in Tokyo.

Schwartzman’s efforts in Japan came hot on the heels of quarter-final runs in both Montreal (where he beat Dominic Thiem) and the US Open (where Marin Cilic was among his vicitms).

Last week losing 7-6 6-4 to eventual champion Roger Federer in Shanghai was far from disastrous and the slower conditions he’ll find in Antwerp will suit his excellent return game.

Schwartzman leads the tour for both return games won and second-serve points won on return and such stats have helped propel him to a career-high of 26th in the ATP rankings.

He’s got a real chance of cracking the top 20 with a strong finish to the campaign and that will surely now be a target.

Denis Shapovalov and David Ferrer both have the potential to derail the 25-year-old but between them the pair have played just one match since the US Open and coming up against a form player like Schwartzman will not be what they want right now.

A rematch with Goffin looks highly likely in the semis and I’ll happily take the man at longer odds. He's 10/1 with Betfair, Paddy Power and Betfred.

Diego Schwartzman

Nick Kyrgios is the man the bookies expect to come through the bottom half but we saw in Beijing the exact reason why I’m loathe to side with the Aussie at any kind of short price. Having played well all week, he won just three games in the final against Rafael Nadal after spending most of the match arguing/sulking about a disputed line call.

He’s no bigger than 9/2 this week which can be left well alone.

A second-round meeting with Peter Gojowczyk could be awkward for Kyrgios and those after a really long price could do worse than the German in the outright market at 66/1.

However, I expect the courts won’t play as quick as he would like and for that reason I’m steering clear of a bet in the bottom half.

Intrum Stockholm Open, indoor hard, Stockholm, Sweden

Stockholm used to be paradise for the big servers.

Conditions have been slowed somewhat but that type of player has still enjoyed success in the Swedish capital with Juan Martin Del Potro and Tomas Berdych both lifting the trophy here in recent years.

Fresh from a semi-final run in Shanghai, Del Potro returns to defend his title and will have his backers at 7/1 (888sport and Unibet are well out of line with that price so get on ASAP if it’s of interest). It’s a quick turnaround but then the Argentine has a first-round bye and so probably won’t play until Thursday.

Delpo is part of what looks a pretty decent field, one led by world number nine Grigor Dimitrov, who also impressed in Shanghai where he pushed Nadal all the way in the quarter-finals.

Dimitrov won here in 2013, finished runner-up the following season and last year reached the last four so there is plenty in his favour even if he is only 10/3.

Jack Sock is another player with good course form – he’s been runner-up in each of the last two years – but unlike Dimitrov his recent results have been poor with his latest loss coming via way of retirement in Shanghai.

US Open finalist Kevin Anderson is also here but we saw last week how he’s not at his best indoors – sadly for followers of this column his match with Jan-Lennard Struff in Shanghai last week was moved inside due to rain and he duly lost in two tie-breaks.

Of his 13 ATP finals (of which he’s won only three), just one has come indoors.

For me, Dimitrov and Del Potro deserve their places at the head of the market but neither makes appeal at a short price.

Video: Roger Federer beats Rafael Nadal to win in Shanghai

Instead, I’m going to take a punt on another player who has shown some good form recently, and that’s Viktor Troicki.

He made the last eight in St Petersburg before pushing on in Shanghai where he beat both Thiem and Isner before pushing Del Potro hard in their quarter-final.

Troicki’s form earlier in the year was poor but he became a father in the summer and there’s every chance he’s now settled into something of a routine.

What’s not in doubt is that he’s on an upward curve.

Conditions this week will be in between those found in St Petersburg and Shanghai and Troicki could be a tricky foe for Dimitrov if they meet in the last eight.

He’s out at 20/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power) but given what we saw last week, that’s a tad big.

Where to watch on TV: Stockholm is on Free Sports; Antwerp on Eurosport