Sam Querrey headlines Andy Schooler's tips for this week's ATP tournaments - and he's also got a 50/1 shot for you.
After the 25/1 winner in St Petersburg, last week proved a big disappointment with early defeats for all three tips.
It was particularly frustrating given the case had been made to take on several of the favourites and they duly crashed out.
Still, it's back on the horse this week with '500' level events taking place in both Tokyo and Beijing as the Asian swing continues.
Rakuten Japan Open, outdoor hard, Tokyo, Japan
At 14/1, Sam Querrey gets the vote in Toyko, where conditions are usually pretty quick.
That will suit the big-serving American just fine and there seems very chance he continues an impressive year with another deep run.
He’s already won at this ‘500’ level in Acapulco this year, added the title in Los Cabos before the US Open where he then made the quarter-finals. All those results came on a hardcourt but it should also be remembered he was a semi-finalist on the Wimbledon grass.
Querrey is still very much in the hunt for a place at the season-ending ATP Finals and so should be fully motivated over the next month, starting here.
He appears fairly well drawn with first-round foe Richard Gasquet not the player he was after numerous injury problems.
The higher-ranked seed in his quarter is David Goffin and while the Belgian won the title in Shenzhen on Sunday, there were some pretty brutal conditions in terms of heat and humidity in China and it will be asking a lot of a player who is not that far into his comeback from injury to challenge again this week.
The player seeded to make the final from the bottom half is Dominic Thiem but I explained all about his poor scheduling and subsequent tail-off towards the end of the year in last week’s column. He duly flopped in Chengdu.
I very much doubt whether his tired body will deal well with the fast conditions on show this week and would advise those thinking of backing him to reassess.
Querrey can capitalise at 14s with Betfair Sportsbook.
The opposite half has plenty of big servers who will fancy their chances.
Marin Cilic is the top seed and favourite, while Milos Raonic has a decent record here having finished runner-up three times.
However, both have played little of late.
Raonic has not been seen on court since Montreal in early August and can therefore be swerved straight away, while Cilic looks short enough at 5/1.
Kevin Anderson may be of better value at 8/1 if he can pick up from where he left off at the US Open where losing in the final to Rafael Nadal was no disgrace.
For those looking for a bigger price, Yuichi Sugita could be of interest.
Given the absence of Kei Nishikori from this year’s tournament due to injury, Sugita is the home nation’s big hope and he’ll receive fervent support throughout.
His impressive form in recent months has taken him into the world’s top 50 and suggests 66/1 may be a tad big.
He won his first tour title on the slick grass of Antalya and since moving onto the hardcourts has made the last eight in Cincinnati (another fast surface), claimed two comfortable Davis Cup wins on home soil for this country and last week reached the semis in Chengdu where he lost to an inspired serving display from eventual champion Denis Istomin.
China Open, outdoor hard, Beijing, China
When Rafael Nadal lost limply to Grigor Dimitrov in Beijing 12 months ago, I’m not sure you’d have found anyone predicting he would return a year later as world number one.
But that’s the scenario the Spaniard finds himself in and 500 more ranking points this week would be most welcome as he looks to fend off Roger Federer (due to return next week in Shanghai) in the race to be the year-end number one.
Nadal is 7/4 to do just that and will certainly have his backers despite a potentially tricky draw which includes a first-round meeting with the mercurial Lucas Pouille, a potential quarter-final with John Isner and a possible semi-final rematch with Dimitrov, who pushed him so close at the Australian Open back at the start of the season.
Nadal will be playing for the first time since his US Open success and while he was clearly the best player in New York, I’m not sure how much he was really tested. The fact that he became the first player to win that title in the Open era without facing a top-10 seed says much.
The post-US Open period has also been traditionally Nadal’s worst of the season and while he has got a pretty decent record at this tournament, the fact is he hasn’t won it since 2005.
Regular readers will know I have to be pretty convinced by a player’s chances to be backing them at 7/4 and while he could well win, for me there are enough reasons to look elsewhere this week.
The problem is I’m struggling to find too many decent alternatives.
Nick Kyrgios has potential, if you are prepared to take the risk always associated with the Aussie hot-head.
I do believe he’s worthy of consideration this week as I believe his experience at the Laver Cup where he worked alongside US legend John McEnroe will have helped him enormously.
Kyrgios played well in the event and held match point against Federer in what proved to be the decisive match.
Play like that again and he should contend but, as ever, you have to wonder whether he can hold it together mentally for five consecutive matches. With only 8/1 on offer, I’m not convinced enough to get involved.
Neither can I back Alex Zverev with any confidence. He’s another looking tired and, as predicted last week, he disappointed in Shenzhen, losing in the last eight.
With conditions here slower than in Tokyo, Spaniards Roberto Bautista Agut and Pablo Carreno Busta both have potential but I think it may be worth taking a chance on Italian Fabio Fognini.
Yes, he has the same issues as Kyrgios when it comes to imploding but he’s also offered at a considerably higher price – 50/1 (general).
That perhaps takes into account the injury problem he was displaying in the St Petersburg final seven days ago but the fact that he’s moved on to the Far East suggests it’s nothing too serious.
Fognini can be up and down, we know that, but his season has shown some impressive results.
His hardcourt run in St Petersburg came not that long after claycourt success in Gstaad. Earlier in the campaign he beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Indian Wells and he reached the semis in Miami where only Nadal proved too good.
Fognini also pushed Nadal the distance on the Madrid clay and beat Andy Murray on the same surface in Rome so when he’s dialled in, the Italian is very capable, even against high-quality opponents such as those he’ll be up against in Beijing.
Zverev is a potential second-round foe but I’ve already talked down his chances and while Tomas Berdych has a good record here he has not shown much at all since his Wimbledon semi-final run. The pair could meet in the last eight.
Fognini made the semis here two years ago and despite the usual concerns around backing him, I’m just tempted enough to take a minimum-stakes, each-way chance on him at the price.
Recommended bets
1pt e.w. Sam Querrey in the Japan Open at 14/1
0.5pt e.w. Fabio Fognini in the China Open at 50/1
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Posted at 1645 BST on 01/10/17.
