After a profitable week in St Petersburg, our Andy Schooler has a couple of 40/1 tips for this week's ATP action in China.
Last week was a decent one for this column.
At time of writing, Damir Dzumhur, my 25/1 each-way pick in St Petersburg, was about to play in the final, having already secured a profit.*
There was also a bit of bad fortune in Metz where 16/1 tip Mischa Zverev made it to the last four, becoming tournament favourite in the process, only to be laid low by illness and he subsequently quit his semi-final clash mid-match.
There are more 250-level tournaments on the ATP World Tour this week – always a good chance to find a decent-priced winner or finalist.
The players move on to the Far East as the three-week Asian swings begins.
Here are my thoughts on this week’s action.
* Damir Dzumhur won the St Petersburg final, beating Fabio Fognini in the final
Chengdu Open, outdoor hard, Chengdu, China
For the second year in a row, Dominic Thiem heads to Chengdu as the top seed and just as in 2016 the favourite looks worth taking on.
The Austrian’s schedule continues to baffle and amaze – he’ll arrive here straight from the Laver Cup in Prague on Sunday. With a first-round bye, he won’t have to start his campaign until Thursday but that’s still a quick turnaround when considering the long flight and the west-east jet lag.
This is already a player who has a reputation for fading in the second half of the season, largely due to that schedule which simply sees him play too often.
It is worth remembering that from Chengdu onwards in 2016, Thiem won just three of his nine matches, while he’s also got a track record of turning up at such 250 events and falling quickly by the wayside when favourite for the title.
You only have to got back to Antalya in June to find him losing to a player outside the world’s top 200, Ramkumar Ramanathan, while last season he was beaten first up in Kitzbuhel.
I can easily see something similar happening this week given the circumstances and certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see Borna Coric cause him problems in his opening match.
Coric is very hit and miss but he did beat Alex Zverev at the US Open, a victory which followed hot on the heels of one over John Isner in Winston-Salem.
The Croatian is tempting at 20/1 but instead I’m going to take a chance on Andrey Rublev.
The primary reason is that the young Russian played some excellent tennis at the US Open where he took down both Grigor Dimitrov and David Goffin en route the last eight.
He was building on some decent form brought in from other surfaces, such as winning on the Umag clay and reaching the quarters on the grass of Halle.
His serve was a real weapon in New York and can help him here in what last year were fairly slick conditions.
At 12/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, bet365), Rublev is a viable each-way proposition. Indeed, with a first-round bye, only three wins would be required to secure a profit.
I’m not sure there’s too much to fear in this section of the draw – Leonardo Mayer is his seeded quarter-final opponent, a player who isn’t great on hardcourts, while as already suggested, it’s far from certain Thiem will be around to meet Rublev in the semis.
Down in the bottom half, one of last year’s finalists – defending champion Karen Khachanov or Albert Ramos-Vinolas – looks likely to return to the title match.
An alternative could be Briton Kyle Edmund, who is offered at 16/1 by Betfred. He’s as short as 71 elsewhere.
Edmund’s last two 250 hardcourt events have seen him reach the semi-finals (Atlanta and Winston-Salem) and, unlike Thiem, he was a player who ended 2016 well.
The problem is Edmund was last seen retiring in tears at the US Open with a neck problem and I’d want to be convinced he’s fit and ready to play this week before backing him.
Shenzhen Open, outdoor hard, Shenzhen, China
There’s another short-priced favourite arriving from the Laver Cup in this event and again I’m happy to swerve Alex Zverev.
This will be the fourth staging of the tournament but it has already gained a reputation as having some of the fastest conditions on the tour, this despite the fact that great heat and humidty will greet the players.
Tomas Berdych’s big serve has helped him collect the last two titles but he’s not here this time, so who could benefit from the conditions?
The elder Zvrev brother, Mischa, would be of interest but whether he even shows up has to be open to question given he withdrew from his semi-final in Metz on Saturday due to illness.
Instead John Millman may well be worth some small change at 40/1 (Betfred).
The Australian beat both Nick Kyrgios and Malek Jaziri en route to the last 32 of the US Open recently, while he also caught the eye on his Davis Cup debut in Belgium earlier this month when he took a set off David Goffin on the Brussels clay.
Conditions here will suit his game much better and he’ll open against another player hot-footing it from Europe, namely Damir Dzumhur, who was playing in the St Petersburg final on Sunday.
Unlike top seed Zverev, Dzumhur doesn’t get a first-round bye and therefore will have to play Millman on Wednesday at the latest.
Millman, who is using his protected ranking to compete this week, lost to Marin Cilic on his last appearance in Shenzhen, but only after taking a set off the former US Open champion.
It is also worth pointing out that before his injury issues, he made the semis in Winston-Salem last season – a similar hardcourt 250 event.
On the opposite side of the draw, now could be the time to side with Marius Copil.
I mentioned the Romanian in last week’s Metz preview when I suggested conditions would suit his big-serving game.
He duly went on to shock third seed Lucas Pouille before losing in the quarter-finals.
That’s’ some decent form to bring in and with the court speed again in his favour this week, there looks to be some value in backing Copil at 40/1 (bet365).
The seeds in his section, Paolo Lorenzi and Joao Sousa would both prefer things slower, while the same can be said of the aforementioned Goffin, the man seeded (and expected by the layers) to reach the final.
Keeping the points short this week could well work to long-term advantage given the heat and humidity expected and so with the serve as it is, Copil must stand a chance of making some good progress at a tasty price.
Where to watch on TV: Eurosport will cover the Chengdu Open with FreeSports broadcasting the Shenzhen Open.
Recommended bets
1pt e.w. Andrey Rublev in the Chengdu Open at 12/1
0.5pt e.w. John Millman in the Shenzhen Open at 40/1
0.5pt e.w. Marius Copil in the Shenzhen Open at 40/1
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Posted at 1335 BST on 24/09/17.
