25/1 shot Damir Dzumhur headlines our tipster Andy Schooler's picks for this week's ATP tournaments.
After a break of three weeks, the ATP World Tour returns with 250-level tournaments in St Petersburg and Metz.
Such events are often a good chance to get on a big-priced outsider and that’s what I’ll try to do below.
I’ll do so with some profits banked from last week’s Davis Cup preview – 7/4 shots Kazakhstan beating Argentina. At time of writing, Belgium were looking to add to the tally by seeing off Australia in a final rubber.
St Petersburg Open, indoor hard, St Petersburg, Russia
Damir Dzumhur’s recent form has carried him to a career-high of 55th in the world rankings and is well worth noting ahead of this event.
The ATP World Tour has long stopped off on the Baltic coast but in the past couple of years the conditions have slowed with a Portable Rebound Ace surface laid.
However, that should not be a problem for Dzumhur, who is enjoying the best season of his career to date.
Things really began to take off when he beat Stan Wawrinka in Dubai but in more recent times he’s really found some strong consistency, reaching the semi-finals in Los Cabos before finishing runner-up in New Haven where Gilles Simon and Kyle Edmund were among his victims.
The Bosnian then made the third round of the US Open – a tournament which hardly played fast this year – knocking out seed Pablo Cuevas before falling to Andrey Rublev, who went on to reach the last eight.
Dzumhur has openly spoken about how finishing the year inside the top 50 is now his goal and so his focus looks guaranteed over the closing couple of months of the season.
Following a recent holiday to recharge the batteries, Dzumhur has been back on the practice court for the past week and should be raring to go against Paolo Lorenzi.
The Italian got himself out of a rut in New York where he unexpectedly made the last 16 but Lorenzi is nothing to fear and in what looks a good part of the draw – Adrian Mannarino is the highest seed in the quarter – I’m keen on Dzumhur at the 25/1 price which is offered by bet365 and Betfred.
Several potential rivals in the bottom half, most notably Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, are arriving off the clay following a big Davis Cup weekend.
Tsonga put in a lot of mental effort to get France over the line in Lille and into the final and I’m not sure he’ll be able to justify favouritism this week.
Certainly he’s got a tricky potential opener lying in wait in the form of Joao Sousa, whose last three visits to St Petersburg have brought results of QF-RU-SF.
Sousa will have his backers at 28s but he’s another coming off the clay having been involved in a losing battle for Portugal at the weekend.
I’m happy with Dzumhur in the bottom section and will add Mikhail Youzhny as a long shot in the top half.
Youznhy caught the eye during a five-set defeat to Roger Federer at the US Open, rolling back the years before cramp effectively ended his chances of a big upset.
Lengthy matches seem unlikely to be an issue this week and the Russian could well be worth taking a chance on at a venue which will bring back happy memories.
No fewer than nine times has Youzhny made the quarter-finals or better in St Petersburg, reaching three finals and winning the title in 2004.
Yes, conditions were faster back then, but Youzhny put some poor form aside to make the quarter-finals here 12 months ago and this time around appears to be arriving in much better shape. As well as his US Open effort, he also qualified in Cincinnati.
Third seed Fabio Fognini has never been one to rely on and could easily crumble against an in-form player backed by fervent home support, should they meet in the second round.
Philipp Kohlschreiber could follow but the German hasn’t been at his best for some time and has little ‘course form’ to speak of.
Roberto Bautista Agut looks the one to beat in the top half – he’s been to the semis in each of the last two years. The top seed would meet Youzhny in the last four should they progress that far but if that is the case at least you’ll be in a good position if you’ve backed Youzhny each-way at 40s (Betfred).
Moselle Open, indoor hard, Metz, France
Traditional, indoor, autumn tennis will be on show in eastern France this week – expect conditions to be considerably quicker here than in St Petersburg.
Last season saw the introduction of a new Slamcourt indoor hard surface and that seemed to make things even faster – analysis shows Metz is one of the quicker tournaments on the entire tour.
So who will it favour?
Gilles Muller looks an obvious candidate but the 34-year-old Luxembourger has looked like he’s running out of steam a bit over the past couple of months following a highly-impressive first half of 2017.
He could recapture his best form here but the left-hander can be swerved given he’s no bigger than 13/2.
I can’t have David Goffin as the favourite given he prefers things slower. He gave a claycourt masterclass against Nick Kyrgios on Sunday in the Davis Cup but that was a big physical and mental effort. Throw in the change of conditions and he looks worth leaving well alone.
Despite his run to the US Open semis, I’m also keen to avoid top seed Pablo Carreno Busta given the slick courts expected and instead I’ll look in his section of the draw for an alternative.
I considered both Nicolas Mahut (twice a semi-finalist here) and serve-volleyer Dustin Brown at big prices. One will face PCB in the second round and could well win to reach the last eight.
However, I prefer Mischa Zverev in the top quarter.
The German’s attacking game saw him topple Andy Murray at the Australian Open back in January and he’s been building on that result ever since.
On the quick grasscourts he made the semis in Stuttgart and last 32 at Wimbledon, while most recently Zverev dismissed John Isner and Benoit Paire en route to the fourth round of the US Open.
I’d suggest conditions here will more favour his game – Zverev is not afraid to come to the net and volley. He showed as much here in 2010 when he made the final.
He opens against Pierre-Hugues Herbert, who has been playing on clay for France in the Davis Cup until Sunday, while Paul-Henri Mathieu or Henri Laaksonen in round two is nothing to worry about too much.
Zverev is on offer at 16/1 (BetVictor) which looks perfectably acceptable.
For those looking for a bigger price, I’ll also mention Marius Copil, a player I also considered as a potential outsider.
Conditions will aid the Romanian’s big serve, just as they did during the grasscourt season when he enjoyed his best results of the year.
Copil is the sort of player who could catch third seed Lucas Pouille cold in round two (the defending champion has a first-round bye) given the Frenchman is another arriving off the clay of Lille.
Copil can be backed at 50/1 but I can’t get away from the fact that he’s won only five matches on the main tour this season.
He’ll need to double that tally to win this week with four needed to deliver a place.
Recommended bets
1pt e.w. Damir Dzumhur in St Petersburg Open at 25/1
0.5pt e.w. Mikhail Youzhny in St Petersburg Open at 40/1
1pt e.w. Mischa Zverev in Moselle Open at 16/1
Click here for our transparent tipping record.
Posted at 1730 BST on 17/09/17.
