After having a 50/1 shot placed last time out, our Andy Schooler has 40/1 and 50/1 picks for this week's Madrid Open.
Aljaz Bedene rewarded his each-way backers in the recent Hungarian Open in Budapest, where he made the final and landed us a decent profit.
That came on the back of Tim Clement having tipped Rafael Nadal at 11/4 to win in Monte Carlo.
Here are Andy's thoughts on the latest Masters 1000 tournament of the ATP season, the Madrid Open, which gets into full flow on Monday.
Recommended bets: Madrid Open
0.5pt e.w. Tomas Berdych at 50/1 - strong record here and has landed in a weaker part of the draw
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Having already won in Monte Carlo and Barcelona this clay season, Rafael Nadal heads into this week’s Mutua Madrid Open as a firm favourite.
The Spaniard has dominated on the surface for more than a decade now – his win in Monte Carlo saw him become the first man ever to win the same ATP tournament 10 times – and it would certainly be no surprise were he to triumph on the red dirt of the Caja Magica for what would be the fourth time.
That figure is certainly not as impressive as his Monte Carlo one but it needs to be given some perspective – Madrid only became a claycourt event in 2009.
Still, Nadal has only won here three times in eight visits. In addition, his match win-loss record of 31-5 (86 per cent), while still impressive, is below his figures in Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Rome and Roland Garros (he is over 90 per cent at all four).
Those stats can at least partially be put down to the faster conditions which will be on show this week. Madrid is around 700m above sea level and the balls fly through the air quicker than next to the sea in Monte Carlo, for example.
Many will see the points I’ve made as nitpicking but for me they are enough to suggest that backing Nadal at 5/4 or shorter certainly has potential pitfalls, and that’s before you get to a very tricky draw which could see the Spaniard have to beat Fabio Fognini, Nick Kyrgios and Milos Raonic just to make the semis where Novak Djokovic could await.
All things considered, I’m happy to take Nadal on this week – he’ll be a better bet in Rome next week regardless of how he performs in Madrid.
The other leading seeds also have doubts surrounding them, none more so than Djokovic, who last week axed his entire coaching team, the very one which helped him scale the tallest heights of the game.
His (relative) slump has now continued for almost a year and while he’s shown he can still produce a very high level and scrap through some dogfights, he’s also regularly losing matches that a year ago he never would have.
In parting ways with his team, Djokovic described the move as “shock therapy” but that phrase also suggests it’s a case of ‘this may or may not work, it’s worth a try’. Frankly the Serb looks rather rudderless right now and I can’t be backing him even if the defending champion is now available at 5/1.
Andy Murray is another player who looks a way off his form of 12 months ago and can also be passed over. The quicker conditions will likely suit his game and at 11/2 I’d rate the Scot, who has made the final in each of the last two seasons, a better bet from Djokovic.
But I still can’t bring myself to take that price given his recent struggles. Potential last-16 foe Lucas Pouille is in good nick having won in Budapest last week, while Dominic Thiem is in his quarter and he’s the man who ended Murray’s run in Barcelona.
Stan Wawrinka is also overlooked, last-16 efforts in Miami and Monte Carlo summing up his ability to underperform at Masters 1000 level.
So who can take advantage of what appears to be relative weakness among the big guns?
Many will like Kei Nishikori at odds of 35/1 considering his strong record at the event.
He’s made at least the semis in his last three visits and should have won the title in 2014 when he was dominating Nadal in the final only for injury to strike.
But there’s the rub. The Japanese is seemingly forever injured – indeed he arrives here just two weeks after withdrawing from Barcelona with another wrist problem and were I looking to back him I’d certainly want to get an early look before parting with my cash.
Right now, I can point out his potential value but can’t recommended a bet.
I’m instead turning to two big servers who have both shown a propensity for the Caja Magica in previous visits with the high-altitude venue playing to their strengths.
Those men are Nick Kyrgios and Tomas Berdych.
I know I’ve probably lost some of you already for these are hardly the most headstrong of ATP players (I’m fully aware I may be cursing myself come Thursday) but hear me out – there are good reasons for backing these two at big prices.
I’ll start with Kyrgios (pictured) whose focus has increased almost beyond belief so far this year.
His mental improvement has seen him beat Djokovic twice, while he was mightily close to taking out Federer in Miami too, losing 7-6 in the third.
He’s already beaten both Federer and Wawrinka in Madrid, making the last 16 and quarter-finals in his two visits, and a run through his previous results here also throw up a notable statistic.
Ten of the 18 sets he’s played in Madrid have gone to tie-breaks and in those 10, Kyrgios holds an 8-2 winning record.
That goes to show how big servers can achieve much more here than they can on clay elsewhere and given the fact that Kyrgios has been serving superbly in recent times he has to be considered this week.
The Australian leads the tour in 2017 for service games won at an impressive 93 per cent, while he’s third for first-serve points won and fourth for second-serve points won.
It would be remiss not to mention that Kyrgios’ mental state will have doubtless been hit by the recent death of his grandfather – he flew back to Australia last week and didn’t play in Estoril as planned. However, he has trained on clay when preparing for that event in Portugal so won’t be coming in here completely cold.
If he is able to refocus then Kyrgios will certainly be an awkward third-round foe for Nadal in these conditions. His serve flummoxed the Spaniard at Wimbledon in 2014 while he also pushed him all the way on the clay of Rome last season.
At the price of 40/1, a small each-way bet looks worthwhile.
Turning to Berdych – a shade bigger at 50s – and you have another player who has used his big serve to good effect at this tournament in the past.
He’s made at least the quarter-finals in each of the last six years, a run which includes two semi-final exits and one final appearance (albeit that came in 2012 when the quicker, slippier blue clay surface was controversially used).
Essentially there’s no denying that Berdych likes playing here and I think he can take advantage of the question marks hanging over the likes of Murray and Wawrinka.
The Czech should have beaten Federer in Miami where he held two match points before losing 7-6 in the third.
That loss very much summed up the risk you take when backing Berdych – while talent-wise he can compete with the best, when it comes to the mental side of the game he’s not up to scratch.
Following that defeat in Miami, Berdych has now won just one of his last 32 matches against members of the so-called Big Four, yet the good news is that this week only Murray is in his half of the draw and, as already explained, it would be no surprise were Murray not to take his seeded spot in the last four.
Marin Cilic could be an awkward last-16 foe. He beat Berdych in Monte Carlo but the change of venue should make Berdych more of a threat if they meet again. It is also not insignificant that Cilic was playing in Istanbul on Sunday (winning the title) and must make the quick trip to Spain where conditions will be considerably different.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised were the Croat to lose his opening match to either Munich champion Alex Zverev or Fernando Verdasco and so will have a small play on Berdych, who could take advantage of a decent draw.
Where to watch on TV: Sky Sports
Posted at 1730 BST on 07/05/17.
