Hamburg European Open tips: Andy Schooler previews the action with two selections

Recommended bets

0.5pt e.w. Fabio Fognini at 40/1

0.5pt e.w. Cristian Garin at 22/1

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ATP Hamburg European Open - Men's singles

• Hamburg, Germany (outdoor clay)

Backing the favourite again proved to be bad business in Rome last week with Rafael Nadal losing to Diego Schwartzman in the quarter-finals.

Given it was his first tournament in six months, it wasn’t the biggest shock of Nadal’s career, but again underlined how unpredictable things are in this post-lockdown period.

Sadly last week’s picks in this column disappointed and were in no position to take advantage of the Spaniard’s slip but choosing from those lower down the market again looks the way to go this week in Hamburg – the last tournament before the French Open begins next weekend.

That fact is always worth noting.

How hard will players want to push themselves with such an important event looming large?

Nadal’s loss in Rome will have raised hopes among the rest of the field for Roland Garros, among them Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Roberto Bautista Agut. All three line up here.

But as well as wondering how much they’ll want a deep run this week, there are other reasons to question how far the trio will go.

Both Medvedev and Bautista Agut played well on the hardcourts upon the tour’s resumption but the pair are now playing their first claycourt matches of the year.

Medvedev has never won a title on this surface, while RBA’s one and only clay crown was claimed back in 2014.

I’m happy to swerve both, and Tsitsipas too.

He was pretty woeful in his loss to Jannik Sinner in Rome last week and has admitted his switch onto the clay hasn’t gone well.

Take out the top three in the betting and you are straight into double-figure prices.

In the top half of the draw, Andrey Rublev is a tempting 12/1. He was in fine form at the US Open, losing in the quarter-finals to Medvedev in straight sets. Despite the scoreline it was a tight match – Rublev lost serve only once.

After a quick turnaround onto the clay, he was beaten in Rome by Hubert Hurkacz but an extra week on the red dirt should have served the Russian well.

He has won on clay before and significantly made the final of this event in 2019.

Others worth a mention in the top half include two-time defending champion Nikoloz Basilashvili and Rome star Casper Ruud.

However, Basilashvili’s form has been woeful and he’ll do well to survive a first-round meeting with Bautista Agut, and while Ruud has no problems on that score, you have to wonder if he’ll be here at all after his run in Italy. Even if he does show, how badly will he want another full week of tennis?

Ruud is in the top quarter along with Medvedev but there’s another player I’m prepared to play to small stakes here and that’s FABIO FOGNINI.

The hot-headed Italian is available at 40/1 which simply seems too big for a player who can really shine on this surface.

I mentioned in a recent column how he’s never one to back at a short price but he’s gone from 4/1 in Kitzbuhel to 40/1 here which is just too much of a swing.

Yes, he was awful in the Austrian Alps but did improve back down towards sea level in Rome. He lost a tight match to Ugo Humbert but Fognini has never gone deep at his home event.

In Hamburg, he’s been much more competitive, winning here in 2013 and also reaching the final in 2015.

In total, Fognini has eight clay titles to his name – more than anyone in this field.

With a new book out, he’s been making the headlines in recent days for his spiky comments. He loves the attention and now may just be the time for him to do his talking on the court. He looks worth a poke at the price.

Down in the bottom half, Diego Schwartzman looks a big price at 16/1 – if he turns up.

But given his comments following his victory over Nadal on Saturday night, that seems unlikely.

Karen Khachanov is a notable wild card in this section, clearly wanting more matches under his belt.

Losing in three sets to Ruud in Rome didn’t prove to be too bad a result given how the Norwegian went on through the draw and 25/1 will tempt some.

However, a tricky opener against home hope Jan-Lennard Struff, who has played well throughout 2020, plus the fact the Russian has yet to reach a claycourt final is enough to put me off.

Instead I’m going to give CRISTIAN GARIN another go.

The Chilean disappointed when I put him up last week but the natural claycourter will be better for another week on the dirt and if he can get past Kei Nishikori in round one then things could open up, especially if Schwartzman does opt out.

Garin is the type of player who will be happy to grind it out in the expected heavy conditions later in the week – temperatures are forecast to dip considerably after the first few days and that could well play a part.

He won two titles on the slow clay of South America earlier in the year and can compete here.

He’s seeded to face Gael Monfils in round two, although the Frenchman didn’t perform well last week, his first back on the tour, and it would be no surprise were Yannick Hanfmann to beat him.

Hanfmann was a surprise finalist in Kitzbuhel but I’d expect Garin to have too much class for him.

This doesn’t look a week to be piling money on so the two small plays at big prices will do for me ahead of the French Open when better bets will likely be on offer – I’ll be doing daily tips on these pages throughout that event.

Posted at 1600 BST on 20/09/20

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