After three profitable days in four, Andy Schooler brings you his best bets for Sunday's denouement at the ATP Finals in Turin.
Tennis betting tips: Sunday's ATP Finals bets
1.5pts Novak Djokovic to beat Casper Ruud 2-0 at 4/5 (bet365, Betway)
1pt Ruud to serve the most aces v Djokovic at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
Casper Ruud v Novak Djokovic (1800 GMT)
Novak Djokovic goes chasing a record-equalling sixth ATP Finals title on Sunday evening when he takes on surprise finalist Casper Ruud.
He’ll look to tie Roger Federer’s tally – and land his biggest-ever payday of $4.7million – and will start a hot favourite to do so. The Serb is around 1/4 for victory in Turin.
Clearly such facts bring added pressure but the 35-year-old has played many bigger matches than this in his career.
Ruud, on the other hand, is chasing the biggest victory of his.
He did play in two Grand Slam finals this year, so we probably shouldn’t be taken aback too much that he’s managed to go this far at the season-ending finale, but he was also well beaten in those finals and another defeat looms.
Djokovic has done everything asked of him so far in Turin, losing just the one set, and looking fully focused on nailing down the title, thus establishing himself as the player to beat in 2023.
He has, however, been fully tested by Daniil Medvedev and Taylor Fritz in the last two days, staying on court for more than five hours across those two matches.
Perhaps fatigue is a factor here. After all, Djokovic did admit after his 7-6 7-6 semi-final victory over Fritz: “I didn’t feel very reactive today or very comfortable.”
Fritz’s big serve can do that and Ruud will look to cause problems in that department too – I’ve written already this week about how his first serve is underrated. His forehand is also a real weapon.
But no-one is better at dealing with opposing serves than the great returner that is Djokovic and history shows how he’s managed to nullify Ruud’s threat.
The head-to-head shows Djokovic 3-0 up and yet to lose a set. Only one of the six has even gone to a tie-break.
Ruud himself didn’t exactly sound confidence of turning things around after his impressive straight-sets win over Andrey Rublev on Saturday night.
“He's a player that doesn't have many weaknesses at all,” said the Norwegian.
“But he is human. He lost two weeks ago to Rune in the (Paris) final.
“It's not like he plays these finals every day of his career, in his life. I'm sure he will also feel a little bit of pressure.”
Digging deeper into those previous meetings, the Serb has managed to break Ruud at least three times in each match (that’s at 8/11 here) with no contest going beyond 21 games.
You can get Djokovic to win in under 21.5 games at 13/10 which is a way of potentially squeezing some value out here.
However, it has proved fairly difficult to break in the slick Turin conditions this week and we had a similar bet go down in his match against Fritz.
Ruud could get to a tie-break too but one of the main takeaways from Djokovic’s SF win was, once again, his ability to find his best level at the key moments.
I’ll therefore take the safer option of backing a straight-sets win at 4/5.
In the sub-markets, there’s a big price worth a mention and that’s the 5/2 on offer about Ruud serving the most aces.
He managed this when the pair met in Rome earlier this season.
Clearly the conditions are much faster here but a look back at the pair’s meeting on this court 12 months ago – a match Djokovic won 7-6 6-2 – shows the ace count was close, Djokovic winning 10-9.
I’d expect Ruud to be really going for lines here – he’ll need cheap points and won’t want to be dragged into long rallies – and that could result in ‘extra’ aces.
It’s largely a price-based play, one which will see stakes returned if it’s a tie.
Published at 0908 GMT on 20/11/22
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