Big-serving John Isner heads two tips from our tennis expert Andy Schooler for this week's ATP Cincinnati Masters.
I was right to oppose Roger Federer last week – the Swiss still hasn’t won in Montreal – but choosing Kei Nishikori as the man with which to do so was not the best move.
The Japanese served for the match against Gael Monfils in both the second and third sets and even led the final-set tie-break 6-2 only to lose.
I’ve had a few agonising losses with my outright picks this season but that one moved straight to the top of the charts. Hopefully it won’t be beaten!
Keeping in mind that it’s been a very strong past couple of months overall, we move on to Cincinnati where the draw has proved something of a minefield to search through…
Recommended bets: ATP World Tour
1pt e.w. John Isner at 35/1 - big server who will have conditions very much in his favour
Western & Southern Open, Cincinnati, outdoor hard
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When I sat down on Sunday evening to study the draw for this week’s Masters 1000 event in Cincinnati, my head hurt given the confusion laid out in front of me.
Roger Federer had just lost to Alex Zverev in the Montreal final, the Swiss great appearing to struggle with a back injury. Afterwards he admitted having muscle pain but said he would travel to Ohio before making any decision.
With the US Open beginning in just two weeks, it’s surely not worth him taking the risk of playing this week and he’s been pushed out to 11/4 by one firm.
If you take it he won’t play, that’s the seven-time winner and this year’s title favourite out of the equation.
As for Zverev, he’ll now be bidding for a third title in as many weeks - a feat I believe was last achieved on the ATP World Tour by Rafael Nadal in 2009. That is, of course, as long as he turns up.
Three straight weeks would be a lot of tennis in the young German’s legs just ahead of the US Open and he admitted after his latest success: "Cincinnati is a very tough draw. I don't know if I will be able to go far there because I am a little bit tired."
For me, it’s easy to envisage both men pulling out. Were they to do so, they would join a long list of withdrawals which already includes Novak Djokovic, US Open champion Stan Wawrinka, world number one Andy Murray, last year’s winner Marin Cilic and, on Sunday, Kei Nishikori.
However, with two matches having already been played on Sunday, the draw won’t be rejigged and that could be to punters’ advantage.
Given Federer and Zverev are both in the bottom half of the draw in Ohio, potential alternatives in the section warrant immediate consideration.
As the next highest seed, Milos Raonic is the obvious candidate, especially given he has made the semi-finals here in two of the last three years.
However, his form is not good. He lost to Jack Sock in Washington and Adrian Mannarino in Montreal last week to continue a disappointing, injury-riddled season.
The fast conditions should aid his big-serving game but I’m not at all convinced by the Canadian at the moment and he looks short enough.
Tomas Berdych could be a runner at a decent price. He’s been to the semis here twice before. The problem is the Czech withdrew from Montreal citing a rib injury and only returned to the practice court on Saturday.
With a tricky first-round match awaiting against another two-time semi-finalist, Juan Martin Del Potro, I’m too concerned to get involved at this stage.
Instead I’ll take a chance on John Isner, a man who has been serving very well in recent weeks, while his much-maligned return game has also shown signs of improvement.
He blasted his way to titles in Newport (on grass) and Atlanta before opting out of Washington after two solid weeks.
He returned in Montreal only to suffer a first-round loss to Del Potro.
I can forgive him that. Conditions will suit better here - it tends to play fast in Cincy - and Isner showed his propensity for the courts in 2013 when he made the final, Djokovic being among his victims that year.
Some will perhaps be surprised he’s not made an impression here since but to be fair he’s not been that far away. Last year he lost two tie-break sets to Raonic and in 2014 Murray beat him in a final-set breaker.
He was one of those in action on Sunday, holding serve throughout his first-round win over Viktor Troicki.
In the same quarter as Raonic and Zverev, Isner looks worth a small bet at 35/1.
If Federer does withdraw, only one of the Big Four will play, that man being Rafael Nadal.
He may have won the title in 2013, but I feel he can be taken on.
I mentioned in last week’s preview how Nadal can be vulnerable against the game’s big servers on a fast court and although it wasn’t one of the biggest who knocked him out in Montreal, I’ll stand by that assessment.
And with his Wimbledon conqueror Gilles Muller his slated last-16 foe and Nick Kyrgios, Kevin Anderson, Ivo Karlovic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga all potential quarter-final opponents, I’m happy to leave Nadal alone.
Last week’s loss to teenager Denis Shapovalov, while far from disastrous, hardly fills backers with confidence either.
I’ll take him on with another Spaniard in the shape of David Ferrer at what looks a big price.
The first half of the season was a nightmare for the former world number three but he’s definitely shown some good signs of late.
He beat Richard Gasquet at Wimbledon and followed that by winning his first title of the season on the clay of Bastad.
Heading onto the North American hardcourts, Ferrer beat Sock in Montreal last week before taking a set off Federer, against whom he has an otherwise wretched record.
Convention would suggest it may be a little quick for the baseliner here but Ferrer did make the final in 2014 and has enjoyed other decent results on fast surfaces before.
He’s 2-0 up on first-round opponent Steve Johnson, has already seen Nishikori removed from his path and won’t be unduly concerned by Dominic Thiem’s presence in his quarter. The Austrian remains inconsistent and in fast conditions I still can’t trust him.
At the very least, Ferrer has back-to-lay potential at 100/1.
Where to watch on TV: Sky Sports
Posted at 0820 BST on 14/08/17.
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