World Snooker Championship final: Luca Brecel v Mark Selby betting tips, predictions, odds, statistics, H2H record & BBC TV start time

Brecel produced surely the finest comeback in Crucible history to beat Si Jiahui 17-15, having at one stage trailed 14-5 before reeling off 11 frames in succession.

Selby booked his place alongside Brecel in the final by doing what he's done throughout the championship, pulling away late in the day having at various points appeared set for a real battle.

The pair have faced each other 11 times previously including in last year's English Open final, which Selby won 9-6. The four-time world champion will start the match as favourite against someone who hadn't won a Crucible match before this year's tournament.

Luca Brecel v Mark: Session times and where to watch

• Sunday April 30: 1300 BST (BBC Two & Eurosport) & 1900 (BBC Two & Eurosport)
  Monday May 1: 1300 BST (BBC Two & Eurosport) & 1900 (BBC Two & Eurosport)
• Format: Best of 35 frames (8 frames first session, 9 frames second, 8 third, 8 fourth)

Snooker betting tips: World Championship final

0.5pts Mark Selby to win 18-14 at 11/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)

0.5pts Mark Selby to win 18-15 at 11/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Beauty and the Beast. That’s how some might view the 2023 World Championship final between Luca Brecel and Mark Selby. Others will see it differently, and I’m very much in that camp. The enigmatic, often unpredictable, but richly talented Brecel up against the professor, the great tactician, the master. Brecel versus Selby at the Crucible. Don’t discount another classic.

In boxing, they say that styles make fights, and Brecel against Selby promises such a difference in styles and approach that it could make for a special match. When the pair met in the final of the English Open earlier in the season, Selby prevailed, but it was a good game and a proper contest throughout. Add to that, Brecel looks much stronger a few months on.

And he’ll need to be. Selby – our 6/1 pre-tournament selection – is arguably the greatest Crucible player of the modern era, this being his sixth world final and one that will afford him the chance of becoming champion of the world for a fifth time. Selby’s strike-rate in all finals is now a thing of legend, but at the Crucible, over four sessions, he is virtually unbeatable.

The great Ronnie O’Sullivan managed it in the last four in 2020, but he needed one of his best ever late shows and a huge slice of good fortune to prevail in an epic contest. The task ahead of Brecel is just about as significant as anything in snooker, but he might not get a better chance.

With a free spirit and all the aggression that sits in stark contrast to Selby’s more cautious approach, Brecel produced possibly the greatest ever comeback seen at the World Championship when recovering from 14-5 down to beat Si Jiahui in the semi-finals on Saturday. Last season’s Scottish Open hero has always been ultra-aggressive, but returning to Sheffield this year still without a single win at the Crucible, he resolved right from the very start of the tournament to take the game on and just enjoy wherever his rich talents took him.

A nerveless, match-winning break in the deciding frame against Ricky Walden set the ball rolling, and having watched Mark Williams reel him in the second round, Brecel responded with two more brilliant, attacking breaks to win 13-11. When O’Sullivan appeared to have him cornered at 10-6 in the quarter-finals, the Belgian reeled off seven frames on the spin to stun the defending champion. Si suffered a similar fate a few days later.

And we can expect more of the same on Sunday and Monday, certainly in terms of approach. Brecel is full of confidence and is entitled to feel an air of invincibility having appeared dead and buried more than once in the last two weeks. There is no such thing as a free shot at a world final, and nobody in his situation would feel like they have nothing to lose, but Selby is widely expected to win his fifth title and he, not Brecel, is the man of whom expectations are greatest.

Perhaps that makes Brecel an even more dangerous animal than he has been already. If it’s not broken, don’t fix it, and he is sure to stick with the tried and tested method that has carried him this far. Refuse very little, back his natural game and keep potting and scoring. And above all else, he knows he can’t beat Selby in a dogfight over four sessions at the Crucible.

Better players than Brecel have tried and failed. As Mark Allen found out in their semi-final, even a prolific winner and a fine tactician will come up short when trying to beat Selby at his own game. Allen has taken a leaf out of Selby’s book this term and has been rewarded with three major titles and his most successful season ever, but he had no answers when trying to employ the same approach against the master. Nor will Brecel.

So, while Selby versus Allen was a hard watch for many, particularly the second session, and Brecel and Si’s trading of haymakers became even better viewing late on when both men began to wilt and make mistakes, this match promises the perfect blend.

Selby is sure to double-down on his approach, reckoning that not even a talent as bright as Brecel can keep making long pots if the white is consistently glued to baulk cushion. Selby will be braced for the inevitable Brecel storm, but he’ll bank on being able to weather it, just as he did in the early throes of his match with John Higgins, or when Allen was on the cusp of leading 7-3 before Selby pulled off a Houdini act to begin the turnaround.

He'll know that for all the brilliance that Brecel has shown in Sheffield this year, he remains capable of throwing in a really poor session like the one Si won 6-2 on Friday morning to seemingly turn the match decisively in his favour. There are few better than Selby at absorbing pressure and limiting the damage when the going is tough, but should Brecel go missing, he’ll pounce like the predator he is.

I’m not sure Brecel will be worrying too much about that. He’s playing the best snooker of his career and enjoying the ride of his life. Four more sessions of his best game and he can be world champion – that’s what those around him will surely be telling him. Don’t get dragged into a war, always choose the aggressive safety shot, hitting the pack thick to get the balls out in the open, and keep going for your pots.

But even the great O’Sullivan has fallen into Selby’s trap here in the past. It happened again in the classic semi-final in 2020 I’ve already referenced, at one stage trailing 16-14 and seemingly running out of answers. Not for the first time, O’Sullivan pulled a rabbit out of the hat with an incredible finish, but much of that match was played on Selby’s terms and only a genius finish from a genius player changed the course of history.

Is Brecel the man to do the same? On the snooker we’ve seen in the last few days, perhaps he is. His attacking game has been streets ahead of where Selby’s appears to be at. His long game is better right now and confidence will not hold him back. But when it gets ugly – and it will – can his game and his mind stand up to the forensic examination Selby is sure to provide? And that examination won’t last an hour, it will last hours and hours over the course of four sessions. Even someone as strong as John Higgins collapsed under it in the 2017 final, so do not underestimate what is coming Brecel's way.

Given his excellent form and carefree approach, I expect Brecel to have his fair share of moments across the course of two days, and there might be times when it is Selby who appears to be hanging on. But that is one of his most valuable assets and when things are going his way, I expect him to turn the screw just as he did in his four previous winning final appearances at the Crucible. That bad session that had previously held Brecel back for so long might just come back to haunt him in the final, and it’s there when things could unravel.

With Selby such a strong favourite, the handicaps will interest most punters, though I’m not expecting anything like a bloodbath and perhaps the correct score market is worth more consideration. Selby to win 18-13, 18-14 and 18-15 appear most likely. Interestingly, two of Selby’s world final wins were secured with an 18-14 scoreline, with the other two 18-15.

• CLICK HERE to back Selby to win 18-14 with Sky Bet
• CLICK HERE to back Selby to win 18-15 with Sky Bet

Luca Brecel v Mark Selby: 2023 World Championship statistics

(Luca Brecel stats on the left)

• Frames won/lost: 53/45 - 53/35
  Century breaks: 7 - 9
  High break: 128 - 131

Luca Brecel v Mark Selby: Routes to the final

LUCA BRECEL

• R1: 10-9 v Ricky Walden
• R2: 13-11 v Mark Williams
• QF: 13-10 v Ronnie O'Sullivan
• SF: 17-15 v Si Jiahui

MARK SELBY

• R1: 10-8 v Matthew Selt
• R2: 13-7 v Gary Wilson
• QF: 13-7 v John Higgins
• SF: 17-15 v Mark Allen

Luca Brecel v Mark Selby: Head-to-head

• Luca Brecel wins: 3
• Mark Selby wins: 8
• Frame score: 29-45
• Finals: 0-1
• Centuries: 3-5
• High break: 122-141

Past meetings

• Mark Selby 9-6 Luca Brecel (2022 English Open final)
• Mark Selby 4-2 Luca Brecel (2020 Champion of Champions)
• Mark Selby 4-2 Luca Brecel (2019 Northern Ireland Open)
• Mark Selby 3-0 Luca Brecel (2020* Championship League)
• Mark Selby 3-1 Luca Brecel (2019 Championship League)
• Mark Selby 3-0 Luca Brecel (2019 Championship League)
• Luca Brecel 6-4 Mark Selby (2017 Champion of Champions)
• Luca Brecel 5-4 Mark Selby (2016 Six Reds)
• Mark Selby 4-3 Luca Brecel (2016 European Tour - Event 6)
• Luca Brecel 4-3 Mark Selby (2015 Welsh Open)
• Mark Selby 4-0 Luca Brecel (2011 PTC - Event 3)

Luca Brecel v Mark Selby: Career honours

LUCA BRECEL

• Ranking titles: 3
• Triple Crown best: Runner-up in 2021 UK Championship
• Maximum breaks: 1

MARK SELBY

• Ranking titles: 22
• World Championship titles: 4 (2014, 2016, 2017, 2021)
• UK Championship titles: 2 (2012, 2016)
• Masters titles: 2 (2008, 2010, 2013)
• Maximum breaks: 4

Related snooker links

• World Championship draw and results
• Where are all the young British players?
• Perfect Snooker Player
• Snooker's GOAT: O'Sullivan by the numbers
• O'Sullivan: One of a kind
• History of snooker's number ones
• Watch all the Crucible 147 breaks
• History of 147 breaks
• Crucible memories: Ronnie's finest hour
• Crucible memories: Higgins denies Trump
• Crucible memories: White a People's Champion
• Crucible memories: Johnson stuns Davis
• Crucible memories: Foulds' dream debut