Snooker betting tips: World Open outright preview and best bets
Ronnie O'Sullivan will be a strong favourite at next week's World Open, but Richard Mann is seeking value elsewhere in the field.
Snooker betting tips: World Open
1pt e.w. Mark Selby to win the World Open at 10/1 (General)
Can anyone stop Ronnie O’Sullivan?
On what we’ve seen for much of the season, it’s hard to believe with any great confidence that they can.
Despite the valiant efforts of Judd Trump and Mark Allen, O’Sullivan has been the dominant force again, winning five major titles, including the UK Championship and Masters.
After beating Ali Carter in the final of the Masters, O’Sullivan proclaimed that he would be carefully managing his workload for the rest of the campaign, and while that has been true to a degree, he has still managed to pick up first prize at the World Grand Prix and then the inaugural running of the World Masters of Snooker.
Not counting the Championship League, O’Sullivan has only lost one match since the turn of the year, when Mark Selby beat him 6-0 at the Players Championship. In winning the very next event in Saudi Arabia, he was quickly back on track to resume his startling level of dominance.
The problem with betting O’Sullivan at 2/1 this week – and he has made no secret of his affection for playing snooker in China – is that he’s a very short price for a man whose number one priority remains winning an eighth world title at the Crucible in just over a month's time.
I believe him when he says that he doesn’t want to be burned out by the time he gets to Sheffield, so I do wonder whether he might be just be a shade vulnerable this week. It’s enough to put me off, and short prices aren’t my thing anyway, for all I can’t muster much enthusiasm for anyone else in the bottom half of the draw.
Selby the value call against O'Sullivan
The aforementioned Trump heads the top section, but he’s an 11/4 chance at best, and I much prefer the claims of MARK SELBY who appeals as a knocking each-way bet at 10/1.
After starting the season by reaching the final of the British Open, things went quiet for Selby thereafter, understandably so given some tough times for the Leicester man off the table. But there have been definite shoots of promise in the last few weeks.
That 6-0 whitewash of O’Sullivan at the Players Championship was Selby at his best, a century and four more breaks of fifty-plus doing to the Rocket what nobody else has been able to do over the last few months.
Selby eventually lost to Zhang Anda in the semi-finals there, but very nearly pulled off a memorable comeback having at one staged trailed 4-0, and there is no shame in losing to Zhang in a big match given the season the Chinese has enjoyed.
He lost in the quarter-finals of the World Masters of Snooker subsequently, but that came in another deciding frame, this time against Mark Allen who prevailed in a match that turned into a real war. Again, Selby lost little caste in defeat given Allen was hot from his Players Championship triumph.
It looks very much like Selby is working his way back to his peak, hardly a surprise given that has been his modus operandi throughout his career. Four times a world champion and runner-up at the Crucible twice, including 12 months ago, Selby has always tailored his campaign around the big one in spring.
And it’s not just Sheffield. It wasn’t so long ago that the China Open was staged right before the World Championship. Selby won that tournament three years in a row between 2015 and 2018, having had to withdraw from the event in 2016. Make no mistake, this is Selby’s time of the year.
Even last year, he warmed up for the World Championship by playing really well at the Tour Championship, beating Ryan Day and then pushing eventual victor Shaun Murphy – the man of the moment at that time – all the way in the last four.
Selby has to be on the shortlist this week and drawn on the opposite side of the draw to O’Sullivan, he makes plenty of each-way appeal at double figures. And should he and O’Sullivan’s paths cross again, Selby has proved time and time again that he has the game and mentality to put it up to his old rival.
Selby could come up against John Higgins in the last 16, but I really do think his form in trending upwards now, while the veteran Scot has suffered some bruising defeats in big matches over the last few months.
Trump a big threat once again
Trump’s claims are blindingly obvious, four titles in the bag already this term, but Selby makes more appeal at the prices from that top half, while from the bottom half, Luca Brecel looks the obvious challenger to O’Sullivan.
The current world champion is another whose game appears to be heading firmly in the right direction, his run to the quarter-finals of the Welsh Open followed by a fine display in Saudi Arabia when it took an on-song O’Sullivan to lower his colours in the final.
It could well be a similar story this week, should they indeed clash again in the last four, but don’t rule out another step forward from Brecel who appears to be enjoying his snooker again, and his practice. That makes him a dangerous proposition for anyone.
All things considered, I’m much happier concentrating on the top half, and Selby gets the vote on both form and price grounds.
Posted at 1610 GMT on 15/03/24
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