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Mark Selby heads the World Championship staking plan

Snooker betting tips: World Championship best bets and outright preview

By Richard Mann

15:37 · SAT April 22, 2023

Richard Mann has tipped the last two winners of the World Snooker Championship at 9/1 and 6/1 – don't miss his outright preview of this year's tournament.

Snooker betting tips: World Championship

3pts Mark Selby to win the World Championship at 6/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Mark Williams to win the World Championship at 20/1 (General 1/2 1,2)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

For years it’s been argued that the World Snooker Championship is a sporting test like no other. Seventeen days of snooker – potentially even longer for those coming through qualifying – played in a theatre of all places, one so small it creates a uniquely intimate setting where spectators can almost touch players, and the pressure valve can be ramped up so high it feels like roof on the famous old building might give way to the atmosphere at any point.

It's not for everyone. One of snooker’s greatest ever icons never won there, though he went achingly close on six occasions. Jimmy White is still holding his own on the tour all these years later, but he will never become world champion. Perhaps that same fate will fall to Ding Junhui, winner of just about everything else in the game and the first truly world-class player to come out of China.

It took Judd Trump a fair while to crack the Crucible. Eventually it all came together. Even the great Ronnie O’Sullivan had to wait his turn, fellow Class of '92 pupils John Higgins and Mark Williams beating The Rocket to the punch before he struck gold in 2001. Six more wins since, the last of which came only 12 months ago, have brought him level with Stephen Hendry, a man for so long known as King of the Crucible.

Special blend needed for Crucible test

A look at the last 10 winners gives a clear indication of the type of player needed to win the biggest prize in snooker. O’Sullivan has three victories, Mark Selby four, with Trump, Williams and Stuart Bingham the three other winners in that time. Too often when the World Championship comes around, we look for grinders and battlers, but it takes a special blend of craft and guile to triumph in Sheffield.

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Shaun Murphy claimed a big win over Neil Robertson

On that list, Selby is often hailed for his tactical prowess and battling qualities, but barring a semi-final tear-up with Bingham, he was electric in 2021. So too was Bingham when he won in 2015. As for O’Sullivan, Trump and Williams, even their dirty stuff is rarely ugly.

Of course, having that ability to limit the damage in those bad sessions that always come along in multi-session matches and 17 days of snooker is crucial, and Selby is a master at that, but you have to be able to win others easily. Be able to pot and score and thus leave something in the tank for the latter stages. It’s what O’Sullivan did so well in 2022.

And perhaps above all else, being able to not only handle pressure, but thrive on it, is what separates a great Crucible player from a good one. It’s what has helped Higgins win four times here and reach four more finals, and it’s probably the reason why it took Trump as long as he did to become world champion. All players will say the same – when it comes to pressure, the Crucible is out on its own.

Selby set for fifth world crown

That was the reason I was so keen on the chances of MARK SELBY in 2021 and with things seemingly falling nicely into place once again this year, the 39-year-old heads the staking plan and is backed to win what would be a fifth World Championship.

I’ve already listed many of the qualities needed to be world champion, ones Selby so clearly boasts, but we shouldn’t underestimate just how dominant he has been in this event in the last 10 years. As well as winning four times, he was desperately unlucky to lose a pulsating semi-final with O’Sullivan in 2021, a match that ultimately decided the outcome of the tournament.

There have been early losses in those years, too, but he can certainly be excused last year’s second-round exit at the end of a season where most of his energy had been taken up with batting depression, something he'd opened up about just months earlier. As such, last year’s appearance always felt like it was another step on the road to recovery more than mounting a meaningful title defence.

Predicting the World Snooker Championship at the Crucible

But this time around, things feel different. It was very much Selby of old when he won the English Open before Christmas, working his way through the tournament before always dictating terms against Luca Brecel in the final. Fast forward a few months and it was the same at the WST Classic, Selby producing his best snooker on the final day as he bossed the likes of Higgins, Ali Carter and Pang Junxu.

Since then, Selby played well to beat Ryan Day at the Tour Championship before pushing Murphy much closer than anyone else has managed in recent weeks in a thrilling semi-final clash. Selby would eventually lose in a deciding frame, but he made nine breaks of over fifty in that match, one more than his opponent, and he also scored more points than Murphy.

That Murphy was able to sprint away from Kyren Wilson in the latter stages of the final, despite Wilson’s own sparking form through the week, confirms the level of collateral form we are dealing with here, and as always, we can only expect Selby get better when he arrives in Sheffield and gets to work at his beloved Crucible.

Selby has all the skills, but don't write off Robertson

I’ve never subscribed to the view that for Selby to win big prizes, he must turn matches into wars. When he’s at his best, he can score as heavily as anyone and he’s no slouch around the table, either. What he does have, however, is that innate ability to win frames he really shouldn’t and battle through those tough sessions when matches, or indeed championships, can be won or lost.

He has everything needed to be world champion and with his form seemingly as good as it was in 2021, and his draw no tougher than for anyone else, he makes strong appeal at 6/1.

CLICK HERE to back Selby with Sky Bet

In the same section of the draw are Higgins and Wilson, and while their potential second-round tie could be one to savour, I’d much prefer Selby over either of that pair if they met in the last eight. Higgins looks to be playing well again, but Selby had his number in the final here in 2017, while his head-to-record against Wilson is particularly favourable (14-6).

Looking even further ahead, Robertson could theoretically lie in wait for Selby in the semi-finals. In no uncertain terms, Robertson has had the measure of Selby in the last few years, but Selby did win their most recent meeting at the English Open, and crucially, their last match at the World Championship in 2020, winning easily 13-7.

Neil Robertson

That’s an awfully long way off, anyway, but I’m not drawing a line through Robertson’s chances. By his own high standards, the Australian has endured a poor campaign, but at the beginning of the season so strong was his form that many of his peers were hailing him as the best player in the world. The titles didn’t follow, and since then his form has tailed off somewhat.

The other negative is his recent Crucible record that is sure to take up many more column inches before the tournament begins, but he was a brilliant winner in 2010 and has actually reached three quarter-finals in the last four years.

In 2019, it wasn’t his form at the Crucible that was the issue and if anything, he just appeared to run out of steam at the end of another fine campaign. It was probably a similarly story last year as well, though he played his part in a terrific match with Jack Liswoski, knocking in a memorable maximum break.

He has the freshness angle on his side this year, though that can be said for many of these given the paucity of events since Christmas, and it’s not very often you can back Robertson for a major event at 15/2. His form is of course factored into that price, but it’s more the presence of Selby in the same half of the draw that has dissuaded me from having a bet.

Nevertheless, if you’re an ardent Robertson fan and are looking at something close to a double-figure price, I’m not about to dampen your enthusiasm too much, for all I rate Selby a better bet at the odds.

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Bingham could surprise but hard to fancy on recent form

I did give some thought to Bingham, another former champion who has shown flashes of his best this term without finding the consistency that propelled him to title glory in 2015.

On first inspection, there isn’t really much to recommend him on recent evidence. In fact, this season has been a poor one, though it was just the same when he defied the odds to win the Masters in brilliant fashion in early 2020. It was a similar story here in 2021, when Bingham had largely struggled before finding his touch and reaching the last four.

Bingham has always been a streaky player who can be very hard to stop when on a roll. He showed glimpses of that when numbering Wilson and Murphy among his victims at the Masters in January, and should take plenty of encouragement from quarter-final finishes at the WST Classic and Six Reds in recent weeks.

It wouldn’t be the greatest surprise were Bingham to suddenly burst back to form and have a deep run, but he finds himself drawn in a really tough section along with Robertson, Ali Carter and Mark Allen. Furthermore, David Gilbert is a tough first first-round draw.

Allen has enjoyed a terrific campaign, winning the Northern Ireland Open, UK Championship and World Grand Prix, but his form has really tailed off since and it will take something special for him to recapture his best game at this stage of the season.

It's for similar reasons I can leave out Carter, having had the German Masters hero in mind for Sheffield not so long ago. He has also made the Players Championship final since Christmas, but I expected more from him at the Tour Championship and looking back, he was firmly put in his place by Selby in the semi-finals of the WST Classic.

Carter might well have played his best snooker already this season and as such, I’m happy to leave this section alone entirely.

Former champion Murphy in the form of his life

In the top half of the draw, things really hot up with Murphy propping up the second section and now finding himself chalked up at 9/1 on the back of wins at the Players and Tour Championship.

Shaun Murphy proved too strong for Kyren Wilson in Hull

Shaun Murphy is in the form of his life

It’s almost impossible to pick holes in Murphy’s recent form, as it is his Crucible credentials given he was world champion in 2005 and has made three more finals, the last of which came as recently as 2021. On what we’ve seen since Christmas, nobody is scoring as heavily as Murphy right now, nor making as many long pots. When you throw the confidence two major title wins bring, and a more well-rounded game than he has had previously, his chance would appear obvious.

The nagging doubt for anyone thinking about taking single figures is that just as was the case with Robertson in 2019 and 2022, and Trump in 2020, could we see Murphy hit the wall at some stage? It’s a huge ask for him to keep producing the level of snooker we have seen recently, and history suggests he could cruise through the first week before running out of petrol when the grind to the finish begins to take its toll.

I can certainly see why many will want to take 9/1 about a man with such strong recent credentials, but he’s not for me in what really is a ‘snooker marathon’ and the two names from top half of the draw I’m inclined to focus on are O’Sullivan and Williams.

O'Sullivan primed for bold title defence

Both have questions to answer having been quiet in ranking events for much of the season, but O’Sullivan appears to be placing ever greater importance on the World Championship nowadays, and having equalled Hendry’s record 12 months ago, I’m sure the prospect of going past him is of great motivation to a man who is now putting the finishing touches to his remarkable legacy.

And it’s not that long ago he was ruling the roost, here in May and then when starting the new season by winning the Hong Kong Masters and Champion of Champions, beating Trump easily in the final of the latter event.

That confirms to me that he’s still more than capable of mixing with and beating the best, and I expect to see a fully-focused and on-song O’Sullivan when his first-round match against Pang gets under way on Saturday. That will certainly need to be the case, though, with Ding looming as a likely opponent in the second round.

Ronnie O'Sullivan is the defending world champion

While I could easily see O’Sullivan winning again, it’s worth underlining that he is set to go off favourite despite finding himself drawn in the same half as Ding, Williams, Masters champion Trump and the in-form Murphy. I certainly think there’s a case for him being bigger than the 4/1 now generally available following strong support in recent days.

Trump is a hard one to weigh up because he didn’t play anywhere near his best at the Masters but still won the tournament, while he very nearly followed up at the World Grand Prix. I’ve maintained all year that his form isn’t there, but he’s won one Triple Crown event already and comes into this year’s World Championship fresher and probably hungrier than he has for many a year.

Williams too big to ignore

Still, I don’t make him a 5/1 chance on recent evidence and MARK WILLIAMS is my dart from the top half at 20/1.

As I’ve alluded to already, Crucible pedigree, a brilliant temperament and the capacity to produce consistently high-class snooker is what’s needed to win this tournament. Williams proved he still had that in his locker when winning his third world title in 2018, and I’d argue that he confirmed that is still the case with a fine run to the last four only a year ago. But for a slugging start, he would in all probability have beaten Trump there and met O’Sullivan in the final.

He very nearly put that right when reaching the Masters final in January, Trump again clipping his wings after the Welshman led 8-7, but he beat O’Sullivan and Jack Lisowski that week and was arguably the best player throughout the tournament.

I’m not overly concerned that he hasn’t contended since. It should ensure he comes to Sheffield nice and fresh and while there is a nagging doubt about him getting over the line and winning another really big event before this great career ends, odds of 20/1 make those concerns easier to swallow, as does the early part of his draw which suggests he can work his way into the tournament before mounting a significant challenge in the second week.

Ronnie O'Sullivan and Mark Williams do battle once again

Ronnie O'Sullivan and Mark Williams at the Masters

None of the big names in the top half is bombproof on recent evidence, but Williams’ last five visits to the Crucible have seen him win in 2018, before sandwiching two more quarter-finals between that and last year’s last-four finish. I can’t believe he won’t show up well again.

As such, he makes solid each-way appeal at the prices and is added to the staking plan.

CLICK HERE to back Williams with Sky Bet

It seems highly likely that Williams will give us a good run for our money again and both he and Selby are two former champions who have passed this unique test many times before and know just what is takes to land the jewel in snooker’s crown.

Make no mistake, the World Championship really is a sporting test like no other, but there is a method needed to tame its madness, and these two vastly experienced, wise heads can usually be relied upon to come good when the Crucible opens its doors for business.

Preview published at 1000 BST on 13/04/23