The Masters kicks off on Sunday afternoon, and Richard Mann has two selections at big prices in his outright betting preview.
Snooker betting tips: The Masters
1pt e.w. Mark Allen to win the Masters at 14/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Shaun Murphy to win the Masters at 14/1 (General)
There is a different dynamic to this year’s Masters, certainly for punters, with the invitational Macau Masters which was staged over Christmas meaning preparation for the second Triple Crown of the snooker season, for those involved in China at least, has been much different this time around.
Ordinarily, one of the main things for punters to weigh up is how much work the top-16 players have put in over the festive period and whether they will be undercooked for the Masters, or conversely, if the break has done a few some good.
When assessing the likes of Mark Williams, who beat Jack Lisowski in the Macau final, defending champion Judd Trump and recent UK Championship hero Ronnie O’Sullivan, it does muddy the waters a little, especially when you consider those long flights to and from the Far East.
It will certainly be interesting to see how that plays out. It may also be something we need to get used to as opportunities away from the World Snooker Tour calendar present themselves to the sport’s top players.
Allen primed for bold Masters bid
As it so happens, my two selections spent Christmas at home, hopefully mixing rest with some worthwhile practice, and 2018 Masters winner MARK ALLEN looks to have enough in his favour to warrant support at 14/1.
I have little doubt that Allen is one of the best players in the world, even when the likes of O’Sullivan and Trump are firing on all cylinders, and in the last few years he’s added some grit and steel to his game that helped him win three major titles, including the UK Championship, last season.
Allen drew criticism from some parts because of his apparently negative approach, but he was the most successful player on the tour last term, and this campaign is so far going well, his comprehensive defeat of Trump in the Champion of Champions final – his second success in that prestigious event – followed by victory at the Shoot Out.
Whether you agreed with the criticism levelled at Allen last season or not, he has definitely found a nice balance in the last few months and looks an even better player for it. He can win ugly now, which is a huge asset, but his strength has always been his scoring and that department of his game has been working really well.
He didn’t offer much at the Scottish Open just before Christmas, but that came straight after the Shoot Out, so perhaps it’s unfair to get too hung up on it. Prior to that he lost to Ding Junhui in the first round proper of the UK Championship, but in truth, that was a match he should’ve won having led 4-2 at one stage and made five breaks of 50+.
Assuming he hasn’t downed tools completely over Christmas, all the indications are that Allen’s game is in really good shape, we know he likes the big stage and this tournament in particular, and crucially, his draw looks a decent one for an event littered with the usual big hitters.
I do prefer him to John Higgins first up. Allen has won the last two meetings between the pair, comprehensively so in their last one at the Champion of Champions in November, and Higgins just hasn’t been able to get the job done in big matches lately.
Trump and O'Sullivan always feared at Ally Pally
Looking further down the line, old foe Trump could lie in wait for Allen at the semi-finals stage. I’m not down on Trump at all this week and he’s enjoying a terrific season that has yielded three trophies already, but I’ve always felt Allen was just about his worst opponent. That is evidenced in the head-to-head record which the Northern Irishman currently leads 18-14.
Allen is one of the few players seemingly able to knock Trump out of his rhythm. Even the great O’Sullivan has struggled to do that, but Allen’s clever tactical play has done the job on him on a number of occasions now, including in three of their last four meetings.
Elsewhere in the top half of the draw, Mark Selby’s form has been too patchy to warrant serious consideration at 13/2, while last year’s runner-up Williams – who we were with each-way at 20/1 – would likely need to improve again on the form he showed 12 months ago to go one better. I’m just not sure he can.
From the top half of the draw, Allen stands out and will be carrying my money at 14/1.
In a rematch of the UK Championship final last month, O’Sullivan versus Ding is the tie of the first round, but though winning this tournament in 2011, the Masters hasn’t always been a happy hunting ground for the Chinese superstar. He can expect to face a raucous crowd on Monday afternoon, and O’Sullivan is fancied to confirm York form.
Like seemingly everything else in snooker, O’Sullivan’s seven Masters wins is a record, though the last of those came in 2017 and he has failed to reach the semi-finals in his last three visits to Ally Pally.
He’s clearly capable of turning that recent record on its head, but it appears that more recently his focus has been on the World Championship, the lucrative Far East events once they returned to the calendar, and also the UK Championship which he now seems to favour over this.
I’m not writing off O’Sullivan’s chances, certainly not after he won again for us in York, but I won’t be backing him at a shorter price this time.
Also in the bottom half of the draw is Neil Robertson, a brilliant winner here two years ago but enduring a poor season by anyone’s standards, especially his own. A trip back home to Melbourne over Christmas means he likely heads to London short on hard match practice, but perhaps fresher mentally.
I don’t see that as a bad thing at all. So much of sport, and especially snooker, is played in the mind, and Robertson looked weary and frustrated before Christmas. This is an exceptional talent and an outstanding snooker player, and I could easily see him bouncing back to something like his best this week.
Murphy ready to produce old magic?
Robertson doesn’t make the staking plan, though, with SHAUN MURPHY my pick from the bottom half at 14/1.
Murphy’s credentials aren’t as obviously strong as Allen’s, and he’s not as easy to predict, but nobody can doubt his star quality when everything clicks into gear. At the end of last season, he won the Players Championship and Tour Championship at a canter, dominating top-class opponents one by one, and he has a Masters title on his CV already.
Predicting when Murphy is about to go on one of his hot streaks can take some working out, but I’d argue there were some promising signs before Christmas. His 147 maximum break at the Shoot Out was one of the best things I’ve seen on a snooker table, regardless of the debate around its merits because it was achieved in that particular event.
It at least showed Murphy’s attacking game to be in good order, and a closer look at his form from earlier in the season offers strong hints that a deep run somewhere isn’t too far away.
He was beaten by Lisowski in a high-quality match at the British Open where the pair traded four centuries in seven frames. He made the last 16 of the Northern Ireland Open before losing to eventual runner-up Chris Wakelin, and then lost in the quarter-finals of the Champion of Champions to Trump, having led 3-1. Trump played out of his skin that night.
At the UK Championship, it was Hossein Vafaei’s turn to produce a brilliant display against Murphy, and anyone would have been hard pressed to the stop the Iranian on that occasion. All in all, I don’t think Murphy is far from his best at all.
My one nagging doubt is that his recent record in BBC events is poor, and mixing working for the host broadcaster and trying to win a big snooker tournament like this one is clearly a tall order. That said, others, including O’Sullivan, have done it, and Murphy clearly doesn’t feel it is an issue.
It's still a slight concern, but then there are question marks about most in the bottom half of the draw, with world champion Luca Brecel hardly pulling up trees since Sheffield and Lisowski still chasing that elusive maiden title.
Murphy doesn’t have to worry about that, and in the belief he’s playing well and on the cusp of something special, he has to join his good friend Allen in the staking plan.
Posted at 1555 GMT on 04/01/24
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