A pretty intense period of snooker culminated with a superb Grand Prix in which Ronnie O’Sullivan ended a frustrating string of final losses in overcoming Neil Robertson 10-8.
With the Masters upcoming, James Cooper has taken the chance to crunch some numbers and give a mid-season overview of the 16 players due to line up at the Alexandra Palace with a first-round wager also recommended.
Snooker betting tips: The Masters
1pt Stephen Maguire to beat Mark Selby at 5/2 (BetVictor, BoyleSports)
Expected goals (xG), sectional timing and strokes-gained have improved analysis when it comes to football, horse racing and golf respectively. Snooker, though, lags behind with pot success percentage offered as the main barometer of performance, while safety success percentage is a flawed concept.
Like a league table in football, tournament results can clearly tell you plenty, but the serious bettor needs more than raw wins and losses to give themselves an edge. Expected wins and run to form % are a couple of tools I employ to getter a better handle on the current form of players.
Expected wins essentially tells you how many victories a player should have won given opponents faced and length of match. A positive difference in the table below clearly indicates a player over-performing; conversely a negative number represents underperformance.
Run to form (RTF) is a concept employed by Timeform when assessing the form of a trainer or jockey and while several factors are used to come up with relevant percentage, I have kept it simple with a binary Yes/No (or 1-0) using my pre-game frame supremacy figures.
A quick example would be John Higgins versus Jimmy Robertson, with Higgins 1.95 frames superior according to my model in a best of 11. On that basis, Higgins would have to win by two frames or more to cover expectancy (1) anything less would be 0.
The below table charts the season so far, with the exception of the Championship League, and gives a useful insight that match results alone cannot.
It must be pointed out at this stage that each player’s output is determined by the master rating I have attached to them. As the number one ranked player, clearly Judd Trump needs to perform at a higher level than anyone else to maintain the same standards.
Class of ‘92 still thriving
I know Mark Williams doesn’t like to be put in the same bracket as O’Sullivan and Higgins but for sheer longevity and achievement in the game it is fully warranted and the trio top the charts when it comes to performance over expectation so far this season. A win apiece for Willo and Ronnie and three final appearances for Higgins (who has won nearly three matches more than expected) is a superb collective return and with the lack of foreign travel, there should still be a fair amount in the tank for the second half of the campaign.
O’Sullivan’s RTF figure is something of an anomaly but can be pretty easily explained away due to a string of narrow wins in matches against inferior opponents. Ronnie has been critical of his game in several interviews and while he has been more workmanlike than spectacular on occasions, he still regularly gets the job done in tight matches and beating someone of the class of Neil Robertson in the Grand Prix final ought to give him major satisfaction.
Crucible hangover still lingers
There’s little question that the World Championship fortnight is the most gruelling physical and mental challenge the sport has to offer and perhaps that examination has left its mark on both Mark Selby and Shaun Murphy.
We are talking about fine margins but the pair have so far underperformed on both my metrics this term, markedly so in the case of Murphy given he has effectively failed to give his true running on 62.5% of matches played. Sometimes, when a player produces poor numbers you have to look at the player rating attached to them as there’s a chance it is too high, but that isn’t the case with these two, and in truth there’s no need to panic, particularly in the case of Selby as everyone is acutely aware of the threat he carries when he does get a foothold in a tournament.
Interestingly, both are paired in the same quarter in the Masters and with Barry Hawkins (another underperformer on my metrics) it affords Stephen Maguire with a realistic chance of making the semi-final. The Scot has gone about his business this term in typically unassuming fashion, posting very respectable expected wins and RTF numbers and as I have explained at the foot of this article, he looks a shade overpriced to win his opening contest.
Bingtao and McGill are granite match players
Topping the RTF numbers are Yan Bingtao and Anthony McGill who have both met pre-game supremacy targets in 60% of this season’s matches.
In the case of McGill, that represents a superb upturn in fortunes following a pretty miserable start to the campaign, while Yan has announced himself as one of the most consistent as well as talented operators on the circuit.
There are similarities in style between the pair, too, neither blessed with the cue ball control of say a Ding Junhui or an O’Sullivan, but both are tremendous potters with great bottle. You don’t beat O’Sullivan in a decider in a best of 25 at the Crucible without being tough under pressure and similarly, edging out Higgins in a Masters final is no mean feat, either.
Jack needs consistency
The biggest disappointment of the season so far, by my metrics anyway, has been Jack Lisowski.
When looking at his strength of schedule, a win return of nine is seriously disappointing against an expected 11.86. There are a couple of mitigating factors, and an early loss against Barry Pinches did an awful lot of damage to his expected wins. In this instance I may have rated Lisowski a shade too high which impacts his output in both categories.
Numbers aside, though, Jack has failed to back up the odd good performance and while his natural ability and flow around the table cannot be disputed, he needs to convert his chances when they are offered. An opening match against O’Sullivan is far from an easy starter at the Alexandra Palace, either.
Mags rates the best bet
Having priced up every possible match-up at the Masters, I was disappointed to see no betting opportunity in the outright market. I suppose assessing 16 of the best players in the game accurately isn’t a particularly taxing undertaking for odds compilers in much the same way making a book for the Cheltenham Gold Cup close to the off is infinitely easier than a two-year-old maiden at the start of the Flat season.
There is an opportunity in the first-round matches though, with STEPHEN MAGUIRE a shade too big at 5/2 in a couple of places to see off Mark Selby. I have mentioned before that on the whole I believe head-to-head records are given too much weight but when backing an outsider it’s no harm to see that Maguire is tied at 15-15 with Selby (not many pros can boast that sort of record) and it’s also worth pointing out that Maguire triumphed 6-3 when the pair clashed at the same stage a year ago.
Selby is still of course favourite with me to triumph at 0.68 (40/85) with Maguire at 0.32 (85/40) suggesting the disparity between the two with the layers is slightly too big.
Posted at 1850 GMT on 03/01/22
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