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Snooker betting tips: Preview and best bets for UK Championship
Richard Mann makes Neil Robertson his headline bet for the UK Championship which begins in York on Tuesday – check out his full outright preview here.
Snooker betting tips: UK Championship
2pts Neil Robertson to win the UK Championship at 11/2 (General)
1pt Yan Bingtao to win the UK Championship at 25/1 (General)
0.5pts e.w. David Gilbert to win the UK Championship at 50/1 (1/2 1,2 Sky Bet, Betfred)
NEIL ROBERTSON might already be one of the most decorated players in the modern game, but strong returns in the last few years suggest there is plenty more to come from the Australian who is the headline selection at the UK Championship.
Robertson registered ranking title win number 21 when recovering from 8-6 down to beat John Higgins in the final of the English Open only a few weeks ago, going one better than in the same event last season, and I remain convinced that now is the time to follow this brilliant cueist who has become very good at peaking for specific periods in the calendar.
It was just the same last year, when Robertson’s runner-up finish at the English Open was followed by another final appearance at the Champion of Champions before he claimed his third UK Championship, getting the better of Judd Trump in a dramatic deciding frame at the conclusion of a brilliant match. Though held in Milton Keynes and without crowds, the event and Robertson’s victory was certainly not diminished. If anything, the final was arguably the highlight of the season and once again confirmed Robertson’s status as a modern-day snooker giant.
Having now past 800 career centuries – making 84, 73 and 72 in the last three campaigns alone – Robertson has already proven himself an elite break-builder, but his all-round game has continued to improve and he needed all that to topple Trump in that memorable final 12 months ago, his defensive game proving almost as good as his lethal attacking game as he got the better of a man who was virtually unbeatable in the early part of the season. Trump contested five finals from the start of last season to Christmas, losing in a best-of-five frames affair in the Championship League, but winning the rest bar when meeting Robertson at the UK Championship.
For Robertson to stop Trump there, albeit only just, was a significant achievement. Few others have been unable to even keep pace with Trump for a number of years now, not when he has been playing at his best and reaching the latter stages of big tournaments. John Higgins has been the form player this season and yet not even the old master could resist Trump on Sunday, despite bursting into a 3-0 lead. Trump was too good, like he usually is.
But he wasn’t too good for Robertson last year, nor in the final of the Champions of Champions the previous year, and that has been one of the main themes in snooker for a while now: when Trump is on-song, he is almost untouchable, as Higgins has found out to his cost, and Ronnie O’Sullivan in three consecutive Northern Ireland Open finals – but that doesn’t count for Robertson, whose best is good enough to match someone who might be on the verge of taking the game to new heights.
The point I’m trying to make it that Robertson’s best is good enough to win any event, against any player, regardless of their form, and he has to be backed as the UK Championship returns to York this week in the strong belief that he is very close to reaching his peak once again.
Robertson nearing top gear in time for York
As discussed in my UK Championship big questions piece here last week, Robertson has become much more predictable the older he has got. Instead of trying to maintain his devilishly-high standards throughout the duration of a long snooker season, he has instead opted to work backwards from big targets and try to peak for those.
In the 2019/2020 season, Robertson won his second Champion of Champions title in the November before reaching the last 16 in York and then winning two events and making the final of another in as many tournaments between January and February. He didn’t make another semi-final for the rest of the season.
Last term, it was the English Open and the UK Championship that saw Robertson at his best before he dropped off and then came back to win the Tour Championship in March. After that victory, Robertson made no secret of his strategy to target certain events, ensuring his preparation is tailored to those targets to give him the best possible chance of peaking on demand.
I think there’s strong evidence to suggest Robertson is following a similar path this time around, having won the English Open recently and played some good stuff when losing to Kyren Wilson at the Champion of Champions only a few days ago. Wilson played out of his skin in that match, producing three century breaks and a 98 to help him win 6-4, and that loss doesn’t at all harm Robertson’s chances in York as far as I’m concerned. If anything, a couple of days off to prepare for an event that lasts almost two weeks might prove ideal.
York has been a happy hunting ground for the former world champion and aside from winning in 2013, 2015 and last year, Robertson produced some good stuff to reach the last 16 in 2018 and 2019. Given what I’ve said already about this event being a major target for him again this season, I can’t believe he won’t play well again. If he does, he’ll take plenty of stopping.
Furthermore, I’m struggling to see too many dangers in his top section of the draw given that he only beat Mark Williams as recently as the aforementioned Champions of Champions and that Stephen Maguire has been struggling badly for results of late. If Robertson doesn’t make the semi-finals – and he’s even-money to win the first quarter – it will be a major surprise.
With 11/2 on offer with plenty of firms, he has to be my headline bet in the outright market.
Top boy Trump facing tricky draw
The case to be made for Trump is rock-solid and like Robertson, we are probably going to see the best of him over the next few weeks. He was certainly very good when trouncing Higgins in the Champion of Champions final on Sunday, and backing up so quickly after a big win doesn’t concern me given he has done it before and is certainly young enough and fit enough to keep pace after a relatively light workload in recent months.
I can’t find too many negatives about the current 7/2 market leader, though he has only won this event once – which puts him a long way behind Robertson and seven-time winner O’Sullivan – and he failed to fire when Nigel Bond knocked him out a couple of years ago. Perhaps it shouldn’t, but that shock result still lingers in the back of my mind when thinking about York, and the pink he missed in last year’s final might still linger in Trump’s.
He really ought to go very well, of course, but I don’t think he finds himself in a particularly easy quarter with potential third-round opponent, Joe Perry, having beaten him 6-4 here in 2018 and always a tough nut to crack. After that, names such as Shaun Murphy, Mark Allen and DAVID GILBERT are all in the mix and I’d rather take a flyer with the latter who has played superbly well this season.
Gilbert is a class act boasting a silky-smooth cue action and all the talent needed to win major titles, even Triple Crown ones. Gilbert proved that when only narrowly losing a dramatic semi-final to John Higgins in the 2019 World Championship having appeared destined to make the final for the majority of that four-session contest.
Crucially, Gilbert finally got off the mark when winning the Championship League earlier in the year and while some might not place too much weight on that event, Gilbert ought to, and he has looked full of confidence ever since.
A last-eight finish at the British Open was encouraging and losing to Higgins at the same stage in Belfast was no disgrace, nor was being inched out by Mark Selby in the Champion of Champions last week. Selby needed to produce breaks of 131, 79, 72, 67 to haul himself over the winning line in that match having trailed 3-1, and Gilbert should head to York knowing his game is in good shape.
A modest record at this event isn’t ideal, but there is no doubting that Gilbert’s snooker has gone to another level over the last few years and I won’t be dwelling too much on his record in York, not when this rich talent – one who is enjoying a fine season to date – can be backed at 50/1.
Beware Masters champion Bingtao at 25/1
To beef up the staking plan, I also want YAN BINGTAO in the book following his good run at the Champion of Champions, one that saw him reach the last four before Higgins nosed him out in a deciding frame.
Bingtao probably missed a trick there having led 3-1, but there is so much to admire about the Chinese who is still only 21 years of age yet already a Triple Crown winner having won the Masters at the beginning of this year. That was Bingtao’s second title win and there are sure to be plenty more to come from a young man destined for the very top.
Unlike most at his age, Bingtao boasts a brilliant tactical game that even had Higgins on the run on Saturday, while his scoring has really gone up a level. Clearly, you don’t win Triple Crown events without being able to score, but that is an area of his game that needed to improve and I think it has.
He had too many guns for Selby earlier in the week, taking the attack to the world champion in a way I’m not sure we’ve seen from him that often in the past, and this is just another sign that Bingtao is maintaining his steep upward curve and growing into the great player so many expected him to become from a young age.
A semi-finalist here in 2019, he has the likes of O’Sullivan and Wilson for company in his section of the draw, but I don’t think he will fear either and why Wilson is 7/2 to win the second quarter, and Bingtao 11/2, makes little sense to me. Let’s not forget that it is Bingtao who is the proven Triple Crown winner here, for all Wilson’s turn will surely come.
I wouldn’t discount O’Sullivan’s claims in York, and I’ve written in depth about him here, but he’s by no means certain to progress from this section and Bingtao, along with the likes of Liam Highfield and Noppon Saengkham, have probably been underestimated a little in the betting.
At 25/1 in the outright market, I’m going to side with the proven quality of Bingtao whose patience and brilliant temperament are perfectly suited to an event like this, proving fine components in a well-rounded game that can attack and defend to devastating effect.
Should he turn up having missed the recent Champion of Champions, it’s hard to know what to expect from 2018 runner-up, Allen, who had a wave of home support to carry him to victory in Belfast, but is clearly suffering off the table. I’d love to see him go well, for all he won’t be carrying my money.
Nor will Selby, who to me eye, doesn’t look far away and might count himself a little unlucky having rallied to level with Bingtao at the Champion of Champions before watching his opponent benefit from a huge fluke in the fifth frame which really did change the course of that match. Bingtao was unstoppable thereafter, but Selby is playing well and it’s only quotes of 11/2 – considerably shorter than Bingtao and Higgins – which turn me off.
Higgins and Selby are potential quarter-final opponents, and the former would probably deserve to be favourite for that match having reached three finals already this term. Still, he’s lost all three and how many times he can keep picking himself up off the canvas remains to be seen.
As ever, both of these four-time world champions warrant maximum respect, but each come with drawbacks, and I’m much happier siding with Robertson – in the hope he’s coming perfectly to the boil – backed up by two classy operators at big prices.
Preview published at 2130 GMT on 21/11/21
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