Richard Mann's outright betting preview for the Cazoo Masters at Alexandra Palace features selections at 66/1, 22/1 and 11/1.
Snooker betting tips: The Masters
1pt Mark Allen to win the Masters at 22/1 (Sporting Index)
0.5pts e.w. Anthony McGill to win the Masters at 66/1 (General)
1pt Anthony McGill to win Quarter Two at 11/1 (Betfred, William Hill)
With crowds expected back at Alexandra Palace next week, as things stand at least, the 2022 Cazoo Masters is a mouth-watering prospect, with a typically star-studded, 16-strong field assembled.
The 2019 champion Judd Trump is clear market leader – 7/2 being the best you’ll get at the time of writing – and this year more than ever, one suspects that he’ll have a point to prove given he doesn’t currently hold any of the Triple Crown titles, that despite winning five tournaments last season and adding the Champion of Champions to his CV already this term.
Furthermore, the fact Trump was forced to sit out this event 12 months ago because of a positive Covid-19 test is sure to be an extra motivational factor in the coming days.
Allen big value despite Trump opener
Still, his recent record in Triple Crown tournaments has to be of concern to punters wanting to steam in at relatively short prices, and the truth of the matter is that I’m just not sure he played well enough before Christmas to warrant such support.
While he was at his bullying best at the Champion of Champions, the overall body of his form this season falls short of what he was producing ahead of this event 12 and 24 months ago, and MARK ALLEN ran out a deserving victor when they met in the last eight of the Northern Ireland Open in October.
Allen would eventually go all the way in Belfast, claiming an emotional success over John Higgins, and he looks a nightmare first-round draw for Trump when they renew hostilities on Wednesday.
As such, at 22/1, I’m prepared to take a flyer on the Northern Irishman to go all the way in London once again.
While Allen might place more personal significance on that recent success in Belfast, his win in this event in 2018 remains the biggest of his career to date, and one that proved the springboard for victories such as his Champion of Champions triumph last term and his runner-up finish at the UK Championship in late 2018.
The problem with Allen’s game, in the last year or so in particular, is that having won an event – like the Champion of Champions in 2020 – he has then tended to go missing thereafter and rarely contend. In following his Northern Ireland Open victory with an early exit at the English equivalent, it appeared that this season might follow a similar path, but I thought he was unlucky to lose to David Gilbert in a deciding frame at the UK Championship when playing some good stuff.
A messy divorce and some well-publicised problems off the table have clearly made things tough for Allen in the last few months, but indications are that much of those issues have or are close to being resolved, something that allowed him to compete in York having previously been forced to pull out of his Champion of Champions defence.
With his troubles off the table hopefully a thing of the past, there's reason to be hopeful we might again see Allen return to the type of consistent, heavy hitter who contested six major semi-finals and the Tour Championship final in the 2019/2020 campaign.
If we do, there’s no reason why this brilliant break-builder and pinpoint positional player can’t enjoy another deep run at the Masters, the type of high-profile event that patently gets him going and plays to the strengths of his rock-solid temperament and appetite for the biggest matches.
Of course, having to take on Trump first up represents just about the worst draw in the hat, but Allen has never been overawed by Trump and actually leads the head-to-head record (15-12).
Allen certainly has more than a puncher’s chance in that match, and while evidently not one to trust implicitly at present, his draw has the potential to open up if he can maintain his excellent record against Trump, with Kyren Wilson or Stuart Bingham potential quarter-final opponents.
While Wilson has shaped with promise, neither has produced a level of snooker in the last few months that Allen should be afraid of. That quartet are berthed in Quarter Three, while it’s hard to muster too much enthusiasm about those in the bottom quarter, reigning world champion Mark Selby the obvious one despite struggling for his very best since winning in Sheffield for a fourth time in the spring.
In sum, I really want a bet in the bottom half of the draw and Allen, priced at 22/1, looks the value call, for all his toughest match of the whole week will highly likely come first.
Ronnie and Robertson on collision course
The top half of the draw features Ronnie O’Sullivan and Neil Robertson, the Rocket fresh from his victory over the former in the World Grand Prix final just before Christmas.
Robertson might feel like that was one that got away having led 4-2 and 7-5 at different stages of the match, before O’Sullivan produced a breathless burst to win his first title since the 2020 World Championship. In truth, I’m not sure there was too much Robertson, or anyone else, could have done against such an onslaught, and yet again, O’Sullivan’s genius won out.
If O’Sullivan can produce anything like that standard at his beloved Masters, an event he has won seven times already, he ought to go very close to winning again.
Nevertheless, aside from Robertson, the aforementioned Bingham is the only other top-16 ranked player O’Sullivan has beaten all season. He’ll need to beat four of them in succession if he is to chalk up Masters title number eight in the coming days.
With O’Sullivan, we all know by now that just about anything is possible, but that sparkling brilliance we saw in Coventry, or at the 2020 World Championship, has become more and more fleeting nowadays and to win here, against the very best players in the game, he will need to be closer to his best for much longer than he has produced in the last 12 months or so. He’s not for me at around 5/1.
Nor is Robertson, given that pair are on course to clash again in the quarter-finals, though it's worth remembering that Stephen Maguire and Yan Bingtao have both defied the odds to lower the Australian's colours in this event in the last couple of years.
McGill can take down big guns
On this occasion, ANTHONY MCGILL stands in the way of Robertson in the first round, and the Scot, with his fine safety game and ability to stand up in big matches, might just provide the contrast in styles that Robertson doesn’t enjoy. Expect Robertson to stick to his attacking guns, but he did that against Bingtao 12 months and still came unstuck.
Having played well all season – reaching the quarter-finals of the UK Championship and semi-finals of the Scottish Open – McGill might be capable of pulling off an upset in the first round, and deep runs at the last two World Championships confirm his liking for the big stage. He beat O’Sullivan in a deciding frame in Sheffield as recently as April.
With that in mind, I’m going to chance McGill to win an admittedly tough Quarter Two at 11/1, with 66/1 for him to go all the way also added to the staking plan.
In truth, I’m not sure he’s playing well enough to win the event, with Sheffield expected to be when we see him at his peak, but if Robertson and O’Sullivan aren’t on their games – and they weren’t in this event last year – McGill is more than capable of working his way into the latter stages and providing an excellent trading position. I certainly think he’s worth a spin at the prices.
In the same half of the draw, I would favour UK Championship hero Zhao Xintong over John Higgins when they meet on Monday. Higgins has been a pillar of consistency all term and four finals confirm he’s close. However, the level of snooker Xintong produced in York announced the arrival of a genuine star.
He already holds the edge over Higgins in the head-to-head record (4-3) and I wonder if he’ll have too many guns for the Scot again, before potentially doing something similar to defending champion Yan Bingtao or Mark Williams.
With two big-price picks already in the staking plan, I’ll refrain from adding another, but 25/1 probably underestimates Xintong, both in terms of his limitless potential and the extraordinary snooker he produced in York. He’ll win more Triple Crown titles in the years to come.
So, too, will Allen and he returns to Alexandra Palace with proven course and distance form and a nice habit for winning big titles against the sport’s very best players. In much the same way, McGill has tended to enjoy his best moments on the biggest stage, and it’s that aforementioned duo who win the verdict at the current prices.
Published at 1520 GMT on 05/12/21 GMT
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