Using his snooker model, James Cooper has assessed all of the early action at the Northern Ireland Open and has picked out a trio of interesting betting matches.
Snooker betting tips: Northern Ireland Open
1pt Hossein Vafaei to beat Yan Bingtao at 7/4 (General)
1pt Hossein Vafaei +1.5 frames at 10/11 (General)
1pt Si Jiahui to beat Mark Allen at 7/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Mitchell Mann to beat Xiao Guodong at 13/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Without the Chinese tournaments this season there has unquestionably been a stop-start feel to the campaign given the British Masters was back in mid-August, and a potential angle to exploit could be the fact that the top 16 have had their three Home Nations qualifying matches held back to each venue. While it’s probably unwise to think that the top echelon of the sport will necessarily come into this undercooked, there is no substitute for hardened game time at this point in the calendar and that could be a factor in Belfast this week.
Of course, it’s hard to put a figure next to that sort of conjecture so the prices still have to be right to make an investment, and that is certainly the case in the Yan Bingtao v HOSSEIN VAFAEI tie (Sunday, 1000 BST). The Iranian was put up in our media Five to Follow piece this week and frankly, I can see why as he has a career-high rating with me. A run to the last 16 in the British Masters, losing to beaten finalist Gary Wilson, was certainly a promising start and a brace of smooth wins in the English and Scottish qualifiers add weight to the fact that Vafaei may well be destined for big things this term.
A prominent showing in the Championship League was a fair reappearance effort from Bingtao but a limp first-round exit to Lukas Kleckers in the British Open was most disappointing and a trio of exits at the first hurdle in 2020/21 indicate Yan could be vulnerable at this stage.
When crunching the numbers for snooker matches, the process I employ is to compile a list of player ratings that constantly evolve, and then taking into account match length, various markets can be calculated seamlessly with the proviso being that each frame is independent.
In this match, I made it a 0.59 (7/10) v 0.41 (10/7) contest so effectively any price of 6/4 or bigger represents value about Vafaei, making the 7/4 available very appealing. There is also some mileage in taking the Iranian +1.5 in this best-of-seven at 10/11 given he is 8/11 (0.58) with me to rack up at least three frames.
Allen vulnerable to promising Jiahui
The next match under the microscope is home favourite Mark Allen against SI JIAHUI (Sunday, 1400 BST), and there is definitely a case siding with a big upset. For someone of Allen’s class, the Northern Ireland Open hasn’t been a happy hunting ground so far. Yes, it’s a very small sample of five, but Allen has failed to progress beyond the quarter-final in that period.
Allen coped admirably in what was a bear-pit atmosphere against former partner Reanne Evans in his opening match in the British Open before succumbing to Hossein Vafaei in round two and, like Bingtao, hasn’t played competitively since.
Opponent Jiahui is seriously unlucky to be a Top-up this season following a brace of 4-3 defeats at Q School but following a couple of opening-stage defeats in the British and English Open events, he produced an eye-catching result when seeing off Matthew Stevens 4-1 to advance to the main event in the Scottish equivalent. At just nineteen, there’s certainly no need for Jiahui to panic about this summer’s setback and a deep run in one of his eligible tournaments this season wouldn’t come as a surprise.
As far as this match goes, Allen is 0.77 (3/10) with me to advance so any price above 10/3 will suffice where backing Jiahui is concerned and we get that opportunity with 7/2 available. For anyone interested, Si Jiahui +2.5 is 0.6, so 4/6 in old money with me to put at least two frames on the board and that could be an avenue for some to play this match.
The final wager comes in the Xiao Guodong versus MITCHELL MANN tie (Monday, 1000 BST), with Mann underrated by the layers in my opinion. Unlike Jiahui, Mann managed to regain his tour place through Q School, albeit via the Order of Merit, but hopefully he can use that as a springboard for better things. Mann really should have defeated Judd Trump at Leicester but dusted himself down and qualified for two of the three Home Nations events (understandably no match for a fired-up Cao Yupeng in the other one).
Guodong is something of an enigma for me, talked about as potentially the next big thing to come from China after Ding Junhui and while he’s forged a very good career, at thirty-two, for someone as precocious as he was, he’s not going to scale anything like those heights.
He’s advanced in each qualifying round in recent weeks but compared with the rating I have for Xiao, he is regularly put in too short for matches. I think this game is no exception as I make Guodong 0.68 (40/85) to triumph against 0.32 (85/40) Mann, so the 13/5 will do nicely. Incidentally, the -1.5 handicap is 0.52 v 0.48 on my model, so 10/11 Guodong to cover with Mann 11/10 to do likewise.
Published at 1930 BST on 07/10/21
More from Sporting Life
- Media Five to Follow
- 2021/2022 snooker season guide
- Northern Ireland Open full draw and daily schedule
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