James Cooper looks at the outright betting for the World Open, with world champion Kyren Wilson in his staking plan.
Snooker betting tips: World Open
3pts English Winning Nationality at 3/4 (William Hill)
1pt Kyren Wilson to win the World Open at 13/2 (Unibet, Star Sports)
0.5pt e.w. Zhou Yuelong to win the World Open at 66/1 (General)
An event that has had several iterations over the years, the World Open returned from a five-year hiatus in 2024 and with Judd Trump claiming the honours, he now seeks a hat-trick having also won it before the pandemic struck in 2019.
At the time of writing there are five withdrawals from the event, most notably Ronnie O’Sullivan and Luca Brecel but with the former announcing it early and the fact it was a held over match, a replacement in Daniel Womersley has been introduced.
We are entering a crucial part of the season at both ends of the ranking list with the upper echelons vying for a top 16 Crucible seeding, while those at the other end of the spectrum have one more opportunity to pick up prize money before the cauldron of World Championship qualifying.
The early O’Sullivan withdrawal makes outright previews easier on two counts.
Firstly, there’s a settled look to the market with compilers not needing to second guess an eleventh-hour withdrawal and secondly, we don’t have the conundrum of assessing the current state of the seven-time World Champion.
A well-rested Judd Trump is a best price of 3/1 to continue his stranglehold on the event and while he demands the utmost respect, I’ll keep him onside in another bet rather than the outright.
Welsh Open winner Mark Selby is second favourite at 11/2 and while an in-form Selby is right up there with the pinnacle of the game, he’s certainly not been missed by the layers.
While any ranking-event win is no mean feat, if one was to look at it from a glass half empty perspective, I’ve seen a harder sextet of opponents than Pinhey, Slessor, Jamie Jones, John Higgins, Brecel and Stephen Maguire en route to Llandudno glory.
Wilson to net more silverware
Third in is KYREN WILSON at 13/2 and while I’ve struggled to get the reigning world champion right this season, he does look a tad overpriced.
Having tipped him to win the Scottish Open in December I was a little disappointed with his 4-2 reversal against Maguire having dismantled that opponent in York a couple of weeks prior to that.
The nature of the best-of-seven Home Nations events means those sort of defeats are inevitable and with the slightly longer best-of-nine matches in China, there’s a little more breathing space.
The German Masters follows the exact same match length format as this World Open and it saw a return to the winner’s enclosure for Wilson.
What I liked in particular about the Wilson displays in Berlin was his ability to carve out results when performing short of best.
Indeed, his 6-2 semi-final success against Xiao Guodong was the only straightforward success that week and it’s some skill in this rarefied company to keep on winning matches.
A lot has been made in the media about the positive way in which Wilson has conducted himself off the table in his ambassadorial role as world champion and to follow Crucible glory with another excellent season speaks volumes.
He’s second on the rankings and that accurately reflects the consistent elevated level Wilson is capable of and from the fourth quarter, I think he has a nice place to attack from this week.
Higgins is the clear second favourite in that quadrant and while he remains a match for anyone, a tournament over in Asia and the travel associated with that is a niggling doubt in my mind for a player at this stage of his career, while a gut-wrenching defeat in the Masters isn’t the sort of match you take in your stride, regardless of his status in the game.
Jak Jones, who was third favourite, has withdrawn, so there doesn’t appear to be masses of depth to Q4.
Home comforts for Yuelong
With that in mind, and with 66/1 available, I will offer ZHOU YUELONG as a nice saver proposition.
It’s fair to say this season has been pretty awful for Yuelong, who finds himself right down at 55th on the one-year rankings.
In fact, it’s been so bad that he’s on course to record his first sub 50% win record since turning pro.
It’s clearly therefore a bit of a stretch to offer him as a potential winner this week but the price has lengthened accordingly.
Yuelong’s record in China probably isn’t as good as it should be but he can have no excuses on the conditions front back in his home country.
A running theme in Chinese events post resumption has been the generous pockets and if that’s the case in Yushan again, that will play to Yuelong’s strengths as his long potting and break building is genuinely world-class when on song.
Despite losing 5-3 to eventual champion Wilson in Berlin, Yuelong looked in good nick when going 3-2 up and a routine 5-1 over Ma Hailong to qualify for this was another step in the right direction in his quest to rediscover the sort of form that at one point made him look the genuine successor to Ding Junhui as the next Chinese number one.
England expects
Only three firms have priced the Winning Nationality market up at the time of writing but I was surprised to see “ENGLISH” at 3/4 with William Hill.
As I’ve already alluded to, the first three in the market represent England and just that trio alone accounts for around 53% of the market.
With Shaun Murphy, Barry Hawkins, Jack Lisowski and Ali Carter among others on our side too, I’d be closer to 8/13 that an Englishman lifts the trophy, particularly with Trump and Wilson in opposite halves (and sure to be shorter than 3/4 for victory were either to reach the final).
I do think there’s something in the theory that Chinese players are at a slight advantage back in home conditions where humidity can affect the way the tables play, coupled with the slightly more forgiving pockets.
That looks to have been firmly built into the prices in this market, though, and I couldn’t really make a case for a Chinese winner at 3/1 combined.
Posted at 1945 GMT on 21/02/25
ALSO READ: James Cooper's World Open round one preview
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