The Northern Ireland Open begins on Sunday and Richard Mann is keen on the chances of Judd Trump – read his full preview here.
Snooker betting tips: Northern Ireland Open
2pts Judd Trump to win the Northern Ireland Open at 7/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor)
JUDD TRUMP has formed quite the love affair with Belfast and is worth backing to claim his fourth Northern Ireland Open title in five years next week.
Trump dominated this tournament between 2018 and 2020, beating Ronnie O’Sullivan in three consecutive finals by the same 9-7 scoreline, but is set to go off a bigger price in 2022 than on each occasion he won the event.
Reasons for that range from the fact Trump wasn’t quite as dominant last season as he was in the previous two, and that the likes of Neil Robertson and O’Sullivan hold strong recent form claims, the former having been confirmed as World Snooker Tour’s Player of the Season for 2021/2022 while the latter won in Hong Kong last week.
O’Sullivan was also crowned world champion for a seventh time in the spring, but it was Trump he faced in that final at the Crucible and I do think the left-hander warrants more respect in the market, given his outstanding record in Belfast and the fact that he was a brilliant winner of the Champion of Champions and Turkish Masters last term.
When Trump’s golden run at this event finally came to an end 12 months ago, it took a top-class performance from eventual winner Mark Allen to stop him in his tracks at the quarter-finals stage, so he most certainly laid down a creditable title defence.
Trump too big to bag another Belfast prize
With all that in mind, I'm pleasantly surprised to see Trump available at 7/1 to get his hands on the Alex Higgins Trophy once again.
As I’ve already stated, the 33-year-old hasn’t been quite the same winning machine in the last year or so, but he’s still been close to untouchable when at his brilliant best, as those two titles last season confirmed.
Another consideration is that the Waterfront Hall can be a challenging environment for players, with its passionate fans making it one of the best venues on the calendar.
That’s to its credit, but it can affect some players. Allen found that out to his cost for several years until finally cracking it when beating John Higgins in an electric atmosphere for last year's final. The fact Trump seemingly thrives at this venue is another plus.
After playing Rod Lawler in his held over match, Trump’s draw does get tricky thereafter, with the likes of Aaron Hill, Tom Ford and Stuart Bingham potentially lying in wait, but in 2019 Trump whitewashed Si Jiahui and Yan Bingtao in the early rounds before beating Higgins and O’Sullivan in the semi-finals and final.
The point is that to win next week someone will need to play well throughout and I have been encouraged by what Trump has produced so far this term.
I didn’t think he played at all badly when edged out by Higgins in Hong Kong – making two centuries – and old foe Allen needed to play out of his skin again when denying Trump in the deciding frame of their British Open quarter-final previously.
To my eye, Trump has started the campaign with real promise and given his record in this event, and the Home Nations Series as a whole, he makes plenty of appeal at odds much bigger than we can usually expect for him in these tournaments.
Ronnie and Robertson eye bigger prizes
I can’t possibly pen a preview without considering O’Sullivan’s chances, and having endured a modest start to the season, he was spectacular in Hong Kong. His comeback win over Robertson in the last four was particularly impressive and of all the Home Nations events, we know this one is his favourite.
My one nagging doubt with O’Sullivan is that after the high of Hong Kong – and he has described the event as ‘probably the best tournament I’ve ever played in’ – there is the potential for some sort of hangover here.
It could be the same with Robertson, too, who does like to target the major events and will be keen to peak for likes of the Champion of Champions and UK Championship which are coming up before Christmas.
Trump’s philosophy is different to that, preferring to enter and try to win every event, and that is another reason he makes more appeal at the prices than the two market leaders.
Defending champion Allen is a hard one to weigh up. Going on the last two seasons, when he won the Champion of Champions and the Northern Ireland before barely raising a gallop for the rest of those respective campaigns, we should probably expect a quiet spell following his recent run to the final of the British Open.
Don't discount Allen in title defence
I’m not sure it’s that simple, though. Allen had been a model of consistency throughout his career until some personal issues clearly affected his output more recently. He looks fit and hungry now, and I think he’ll remain a contender here and beyond.
Having been keen on the chances of Mark Selby in Hong Kong, I expected more from him against Marco Fu there. Nevertheless, he looked sharp in the British Open prior to that and boasts a fine record in this format, including winning the Scottish Open twice.
After a tough year, I remain hopeful Selby is on his way back.
At bigger prices, I thought we saw enough from 2017 winner Mark Williams in Hong Kong to know he’s playing well again, while one man who probably deserved to be involved in that tournament was Kyren Wilson.
The world number six is drawn in an around some dangerous players in Belfast, but he is generally rock-solid and his record in this best-of-seven frames format is good, too. He ought to show up well again having hammered Barry Hawkins to win the European Masters recently.
As always in the Home Nations, a case can be made for plenty, but I keep coming back to that man Trump who is always so hard to beat in Belfast and looks to be peaking at the right time.
Posted at 1300 BST on 13/10/22
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