The Champion of Champions gets underway at Bolton on Monday and having looked at all four groups, James Cooper has selected two bets.
Snooker betting tips: Champion of Champions
1pt John Higgins to win Group 4 at 15/8 (bet365, BetVictor)
1pt Hossein Vafaei to win Group 4 at 9/1 (William Hill, bet365, BetVictor)
From a watching perspective, there really should be fireworks in Group 1 of the Champion of Champions, with Judd Trump around a 6/4 shot with me to take care of the dangerous Luca Brecel prior to a clash with the best player so far this season in Mark Allen, or Joe Perry. The market looks about right in that quadrant, though.
O’Sullivan against Xintong is the most likely quarter-final tie in Group 2 and it’s hard not to bill that clash as the best ever against the best prospect in the game.
Robert Milkins is a dangerous opener for the Rocket, particularly in this best-of-seven frames format and with Xintong almost certainly the next opponent, that is a section to leave alone for betting purposes.
British Open winner Ryan Day was close to making the staking plan in Group 3 at 9/1 given he’s a tad shorter than that on my numbers but seeing off Kyren Wilson and probably Neil Robertson (by that stage the match length becomes best-of-11) is asking a lot and it is Group 4 where the real value lies.
It seems counter intuitive to back two players who meet at the first stage in a four-runner race but the market for this is slightly different to what I was expecting so that plan of attack does appear to be the best policy.
Mark Selby is priced up at between 8/11 and 8/13 at the time of writing and in Lee Walker, it’s fair to say the Senior World Championship winner is probably the second-best opponent Selby could have hoped for.
That said, JOHN HIGGINS and to a slightly lesser extent HOSSEIN VAFAEI rate different propositions and I’m surprised Selby is so short here given he is only a touch under even-money with me to pass this test.
The Jester was the best player in the Mixed Doubles last month but he was brushed aside quite readily by Marco Fu in Hong Kong and in truth, Selby was more workmanlike than spectacular in Belfast, ultimately losing 5-2 to Neil Robertson in the last eight.
It is said that the definition of insanity is repeating the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result and I confess that in their previous three meetings, I have unsuccessfully backed the Iranian to triumph over the Scot.
Vafaei was pretty close to doing so on the second occasion, though, ultimately losing 4-3 and I remain convinced that the layers underestimate slightly how good the Iranian is.
This will be a quick turnaround for Hossein as he’s in action on Sunday afternoon in the English Open Qualifiers where he will hopefully account for Zhang Jiankang but that shouldn’t be an issue and the 9/1 available to negotiate a safe passage through this group looks very appealing given he’s about 7/1 with me.
John Higgins also needs including in the staking plan at 15/8 given he remains more than a match for every player on the circuit.
As mentioned in Richard Mann’s outright preview, a 5-4 win over Judd Trump in Hong Kong in what was a quality encounter illustrates that point perfectly.
He didn’t do a lot wrong against Marco Fu in the semi-final and while a heavy defeat to Robert Milkins in Belfast was surprising, that sort of result is liable to happen from time to time in a best-of-seven.
Put simply, Mark Selby is too short to win this group and John Higgins and Hossein Vafaei are too big as a consequence.
Published at 1230 GMT on 30/09/22
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