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Snooker betting tips and analysis: Welsh Open preview and best bets
The Welsh Open begins proper on Monday and James Cooper offers three bets in his latest preview.
Snooker betting tips: Welsh Open
1pt Mark Williams to beat John Astley 4-0 at 29/10 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Ricky Walden (-1.5 frames) to beat Matthew Stevens at 6/5 (General)
0.5pt Riley Powell to beat Liam Davies at 10/1 (Bet365, Boylesports)
Having enjoyed a productive 2022/23 campaign, John Astley started out this season in positive fashion, coming through his initial Championship League group before falling short in the semi-final section.
Unfortunately, just the one win has followed since and arguably the most striking aspect of his defeats is that he’s failed to register a solitary frame on three occasions against Stuart Bingham, Rory Thor and Oliver Lines respectively.
Astley was far more resolute in going down 5-4 to He Guoqiang in a German Masters qualifier in December but it’s very clear that he’s struggling for form at present and on a bad day, a heavy defeat is certainly on the cards
With that in mind, a clash with home favourite and still very much an elite player in MARK WILLIAMS is hardly ideal and while Willo is a warm favourite with the layers at 1/7, he’s even shorter with me to pass this test and as a result, siding with a whitewash looks appealing.
It’s never easy to assess a player like Astley who had a higher base level for quite a while but is nowhere near that standard over what is now a reasonable period of time.
That said, based on my current numbers, Williams is just shy of 1/3 to win each individual frame in this best-of-seven (74%) so any price bigger than 9/4 for a 4-0 victory represents a fair bet.
The fact that 29/10 is available is a pleasant surprise, so it’s an automatic selection.
Matthew Stevens and RICKY WALDEN have traded blows umpteen times in very successful careers and in truth, games involving very established players rarely make for appealing betting propositions, particularly in this short format.
However, Walden has attained a higher rating with me in the entirety I have properly compiled player numbers and on this season’s form, I’d have him as a slightly shorter price than the 4/6 to reach four frames first here.
For someone with well-publicised back problems, Walden is probably less reliant than many colleagues on the tour for match sharpness but at a stage of the campaign that is rather stop-start, an excellent showing in the Championship League last week, ultimately finding John Higgins too strong, has to bode very well.
Stevens came through a high-quality encounter with Louis Heathcote 4-3 to get to round two of his home event and I’m not massively against him per se, but I think Walden is in better nick and is a slightly more reliable proposition.
Instead of siding with the 4/6 though, I am happy to chance the -1.5 handicap at the general 6/5 given I make it around a 21/20 chance.
Finally, I can’t resist a very speculative interest on RILEY POWELL at a double-figure price in his all-Welsh clash with fellow teenager Liam Davies.
Whenever I am asked the question as to who I predict will be a future star of the game, I nominate Liam Davies but I must admit I did a double take when I saw the first quote of 1/50 for him in this match.
We are dealing with a best-of-seven here and there’s sure to be big pressure on Davies playing in front of his home supporters.
Yes that’s the same of Powell and he doesn’t have the arena experience of his compatriot but given the circumstances, this could be a nervy affair if Powell can keep tabs on Davies early.
I’m in snooker badger territory here having watched bits of the WSF Junior Championship from Albania last week and Powell came through his group with relative ease.
A 4-1 reversal against the classy Iulian Boiko was a closer game than that scoreline suggests and while he didn’t do a great deal wrong (winning three of his four matches and losing out on frame difference) it should be noted that Davies, the likely tournament favourite were it priced up, failed to come through his initial section.
On Q Tour form there is a gulf in class between the two and of course there’s a real chance Davies wins this easily but at this embryonic stage of both their careers, wild swings in form do happen so I’m going to chance my arm for the huge upset.
Posted at 2150 GMT on 11/11/23
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