Masters snooker final preview: Ali Carter v Ronnie O'Sullivan betting tips and analysis

These two former practise partners turned adversaries both grew up in Essex, where Carter no doubt will have become somewhat familiar with a feeling which remains to this day – that of losing to O'Sullivan, who heads their professional head-to-head 22-3.

Should he win, O'Sullivan would become the oldest champion in an event for which he's already the youngest champion. Perhaps even more remarkable is that this feat is one he's already achieved this season, at the UK Championship.

And in capturing the Masters once more, O'Sullivan would head to Sheffield in April with the chance to do one of the few things he's not yet managed to – win snooker's three Triple Crown events in the same season. It's a feat only three players have managed, Stephen Hendry doing so twice.

The Masters final

• Ali Carter v Ronnie O'Sullivan
• Best of 19 frames
• Eurosport and BBC
• Winner earns £250,000

O'Sullivan, widely considered the greatest of all time, a description beaten opponent Shaun Murphy used on Saturday, is in a place in the game where there is no title he can win without a subplot. Whether it's extending a record or aiming to create one, and whether he cares or not, what he does has historical significance.

Were he to go on and win the second and third events of the Triple Crown this year, the bar would be set so high as to demand that all future superstars have to have their achievements caveated. There would be little point referencing O'Sullivan, a player of the kind we may never see again.

But what of Carter? Runner-up in 2020, when only in the field because O'Sullivan chose not to be, he is well versed in playing the underdog. Yet again on Saturday night, he did it with aplomb. The trouble is he's generally struggled against a player with whom he's at times shared ill feelings. The head-to-head leaves little room for ambiguity.

Two heavy world final defeats both came at the hands of O'Sullivan and this would be by some distance the biggest win of his career. It would also be his first major title in England although that detail is unlikely to be on his mind after wins over Mark Williams, Judd Trump and Mark Allen already this week.

Carter's hopes depend on O'Sullivan performing below his best, a point made by Murphy. That has been the case at times this week, Barry Hawkins in particular making life a little too easy for O'Sullivan, who then found another gear in the semi-final when Murphy looked in good touch but never likely to lay a glove on his opponent.

O'Sullivan repeated his disdain for the venue afterwards but it says much that those looking for chinks in his armour are left to pore over words he throws around with far less care than any shot he plays. Of everything he has said this week, nothing has been truer than a rare moment of self-praise, as he lauded his mental strength and ability to think quickly and smartly around a snooker table.

Everything is in his favour and with due respect to Carter, a real fighter who would deserve a title as prestigious as this, in a year which has seen several of snooker's big names underperform, it would be quite special for O'Sullivan to head to its spiritual home at the Crucible two-thirds of the way to whatever level is above the one he occupies on his own as it is.

Expect him to do that on a rowdy night at the palace.

Richard Mann's best bet: Ronnie O'Sullivan to win 10-7 or 10-8

O'Sullivan's strong head-to-head record against Carter points to another comfortable victory for the seven-time champion, but he might have to work harder than many expect.

Carter has arguably been the form player this week, making six centuries in the three matches, including three in consecutive frames when beating Allen in the semi-finals. His game is clearly in good shape and he won't be overawed by facing O'Sullivan in this venue.

For O'Sullivan's part, he remains the best player in the world on the biggest stage, but his victory at the UK Championship in York last month was characterised by a number of narrow wins when he was just able to do enough, rather than the O'Sullivan blitz of old.

He's found things more straightforward this week, but both Hawkins and Murphy made things easy for him, something Carter doesn't appear likely to do.

When O'Sullivan beat Ding 10-7 in the final in York, he pulled out more when put under pressure late in the concluding session, playing his best snooker from 7-7, and it was a similar story when he edged out Luca Brecel 11-9 in the final of the Shanghai Masters earlier in the season.

Expect another O'Sullivan victory speech on Sunday night, but Carter will make him work for it. Dutching O'Sullivan to win 10-7 (7/1) and 10-8 (15/2) could be the best way to go.

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