With Judd Trump out of the Masters, Richard Mann is happy to place his faith in Neil Robertson coming through the tougher half of the draw.
Original preview written before withdrawals of Judd Trump and Jack Lisowski; advised bets void
Snooker betting tips: The Masters
It turns out that the answer to 'how do you stop Judd Trump' is found off the table, and it's a great shame for the Masters, snooker, and Trump himself, that the awesome world number one has failed a Covid-19 test and is out of the event. Needless to say, it's hoped he's ready to go again after a short period of isolation.
Earlier in the week, I advised backing Trump at 5/2 and felt that the man most likely to stop him would be NEIL ROBERTSON, who already was housed in the tougher section of the draw and just looked a shade short with that and Trump's looming presence in mind.
With Joe Perry and Gary Wilson replacing Trump and Jack Lisowski in the bottom half, both World Grand Prix finalists cruelly missing out, it's the likes of Ronnie O'Sullivan, Kyren Wilson and whomever comes through the match between John Higgins and Mark Allen whose chances have been boosted most significantly.
That said, none looks totally convincing and while O'Sullivan is by no means a spent force - more on which later - it's Robertson who now looks worth backing. I felt that his clash with Mark Selby would produce the finalist and therefore the man likely to face Trump a week on Sunday. Now, it could well produce the champion and over the shorter format of this exclusive event, a freshened-up Robertson is preferred.
O’Sullivan was sat at home watching this time last year but now has a golden opportunity to add to his subsequent World Championship success, the seven-time Masters winner set to begin his title challenge in the pick of the first-round ties against Ding Junhui on Wednesday.
Despite drawing some criticism for his form and behaviour so far this season, it is to O’Sullivan’s great credit that he has been able to battle some clear issues with his game and still make the finals of the Northern Ireland and Scottish Opens.
He wasn’t quite good enough on either occasion, nor when losing to Trump again in the semi-final of the World Grand Prix, but the very fact that he continues to pack a considerable punch tells you the world champion isn’t far away from winning again.
That O’Sullivan won his sixth world title as recently as August supports the belief that we are not dealing with a fading star here, for all he might not be able to dominate his rivals with the same regularity he once could, and regardless of the manner in which he performs on Wednesday, I suspect he’ll once again prove too bloody-minded for Ding before setting up a meeting with either Allen or Higgins.
A match with Trump would likely have followed, but the trickiest draw – arguably the only thing resembling a tricky draw – should he reach the last four would now be Wilson, and O'Sullivan leads the head-to-head 6-2. He's won too many close scraps to go with that thumping world final victory to be confident that Wilson might rise to the occasion, for all the Kettering man is clearly getting there and will also smell an opportunity now his other nemesis is out.
I must confess to having had Robertson firmly on my radar when the draw was originally made, however, and while there was a nagging doubt as to his price with such a dominant force in the competition, it now looks to me like the Australian is the man they all have to beat and he's backed accordingly.
The case to be made for Robertson is a robust one, the foundations of which are laid on his excellent form so far this season which has seen him win the UK Championship at Trump’s expense and make two more finals.
Furthermore, I’m convinced Robertson will be a huge threat in major tournaments in the New Year in particular, just as was the case last year when he followed an early loss in this event with victory at the European Masters, backed up by a final appearance at the German Masters and more title glory in the World Grand Prix.
It was a similar story in 2019 when Robertson made the semi-finals of this event before winning the Welsh Open, reaching the finals of the Players and Tour Championships, and then claiming the China Open title in early April.
In summary, this time of year seems to suit Robertson well and I think the freshness angle is a big thing with him, particularly following a packed snooker schedule in December that then makes way for the Christmas break. With his batteries recharged, I don’t think it’s any surprise Robertson’s form tends to follow a similar pattern at this time of year.
I’m sure he’ll go very well this week and that game against Selby, winner of the European Masters and Scottish Open, is key – although as Selby told Nick Metcalfe, his own opener against Stephen Maguire is not to be underestimated given what we know the Scot is capable of.
Selby thrashed O’Sullivan in the final of that most recent Home Nations event, so is clearly playing very well again, but Robertson has beaten him three times already this term, with the Australian’s more aggressive approach to the tactical exchanges reaping rewards.
As I argued in my Antepost Angle feature here a couple of weeks ago, Robertson might struggle to make that strategy work in long, multi-session matches at the World Championship, should they meet again at the Crucible later in the season – he was no match for Selby in Sheffield last summer – but he’ll surely fancy his chances of confirming this season’s form in another best of 11 frames encounter.
Defending champion, Bingham, is also in the top half, and on his results in the last few months, he could probably be a few points bigger than what appear at first glance to be generous quotes. Still, he is was in the same boat 12 months ago before getting stronger as the week wore on before producing a brilliant display in the final.
This year’s renewal really should take more winning, though, with O’Sullivan back in the mix and one of Selby or Robertson heavily fancied to get the better of him in the semi-finals should he get that far.
The solid form shown by the likes of Wilson and Higgins this term makes them interesting now Trump has gone, and let's not underestimate the absence of Lisowski who, on World Grand Prix form, would've given Wilson plenty to think about in what looked one of the ties of the first round. Instead, we've Wilson v Wilson, Kyren v Gary, and the latter looked out of love with the game when gaining internet notoriety on Thursday.
As for 2018 winner Allen, he has left behind last season’s consistency by doing something he couldn’t last year: win a title, but that Champion Of Champions victory in November was a peak in what really has been a campaign of troughs.
Allen’s insistence on persevering with a new cue might have something do with his lack of results just before Christmas, and that could easily turn around following a good break in the last few weeks when he can be expected to have put in plenty of hours on the practice table.
If anyone can shake up what is momentarily a ‘big three’ of Robertson, O’Sullivan and Selby, it's possibly the Northern Irishman who beat two of that trio plus Trump on the way to Champions Of Champions glory.
Nevertheless, it’s impossible to know what we are going to get from Allen right now and this tournament is expected to play out largely as the form book suggests, after things have settled down following Saturday's withdrawals.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 08/01/21; updated at 1700 GMT on 09/01/21
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
