Six Nations betting tips: Tony Calvin previews fourth round of matches

Recommended bets

0.5pt Scotland-Wales half-time/full-time at 6/1

2pts Italy (+35) to beat England at 10/11

1pt Ireland (-13) to beat France at 10/11

We pretty much had all our pre-tournament punts in one betting basket when Wales took on England in Cardiff fortnight ago - I tidied that line up just in case you are reading this before the 9pm Sporting Life watershed - and thankfully the home side delivered a 21-13 victory.

Our bets on No Grand Slam at 5/6 and a Welsh Triple Crown at 6/1 (how we could have done with France holding firm from 16-0 up in the opener) looked decidedly dodgy at half-time, but Warren Gatland’s men dominated from thereon in, with their pack outworking the opposition forwards to put us in a no-lose situation on those long term bets.

So the question now is can Wales seal the deal and the Grand Slam by beating Scotland away on Saturday and Ireland at home next week?

The Welsh management and players could have well done without the furore that surrounded the suggested merger of the Ospreys and the Scarlets this week, as this affects 13 of their 23-man squad.

It is only human for it to prey on the minds of those players as they prepare for their match in Scotland and the situation is far from ideal, whatever the official line from the camp may be.

I imagine the merger chat would have dominated outside of the training sessions, and it will have been an undoubted, unnecessary diversion from what remains a sizeable task at hand.

That further complicates what is a pretty tricky match to call on the handicap, with the home side receiving either three- or four-point starts, depending on where you shop.

Wales come into this match with only one change from the side that brought England back down to earth – Adam Beard coming in at lock for the injured Cory Hill – and they are unerring in the manner in which they are grinding out victories.

They are not flash and have been far from easy on the eye in this tournament so far, but their collective will to win is mightily impressive, with their fitness and belief really unsettling England in the second-half.

I am slightly surprised that they are persevering with Gareth Anscombe at 10, as he has failed to fire as an attacking force so far – and Wales have improved when the assured Dan Biggar has taken the reins – but that loyalty could finally bear fruit here, I guess. This promises to be an open game, which will play to his strengths.

Recent head-to-head records between the sides will give potential backers of Wales plenty of encouragement too, even if they lost this fixture 29-13 in 2017.

That is the only Scotland victory between the sides since 2007, and I was pretty staggered to discover that Wales have won 11 of the last 12. I certainly wasn’t aware of that level of recent dominance.

The problem is that, unfortunately, I probably saw a lot more promise in Scotland’s 27-10 defeat in Paris than most.

We were with France to successfully concede six points there but, as strange as it may sound – especially as the home side had two tries disallowed in the first half – that result could well have been a lot different.

Scotland were massively under-strength, with Finn Russell a particularly big miss at fly-half, but I thought they looked dangerous with the ball in hand and only a couple of tap-tackles stopped them getting in behind and creating try-scoring opportunities, with full-back Blair Kinghorn in particular impressing with his open-field running.

Stuart Hogg is still out, while they have also lost winger Sean Maitland and centre Chris Harris after their club matches last weekend – and they have taken a fair gamble by leaving captain Greig Laidlaw out of the XV - but at least they have re-introduced some important players to their squad, notably prop WP Nel starting, and the 'Mighty Hamish' (Watson) on the bench after a long absence.

Of course, the return of Russell is vital to their attack and general menace when in possession. While Ireland have been massively below their best in this tournament, Scotland didn’t deserve to lose by nine points to them at Murrayfield, where Russell's influence was clear.

The 'Doddie Weir Cup' – what a man, he is, by the way – is a tight match to call on the handicap, and in truth I was going to leave it alone from a betting point of view, but you can make a fair case for a minimum-stakes interest on Scotland-Wales on the half-time/full-time market at 6/1.

Wales’ fitness (and Gatland has always prided his teams on their 80-minute stamina) has come to the fore in the latter stages of their games in this tournament, turning around deficits against France (16-0) and England (10-3) before winning, and they led just 12-7 at the interval in Rome.

Look, it’s clearly not one to go overboard about, but it could well be that Wales need Biggar’s introduction once again to steady matters and keep the Grand Slam wagon on track.

There was always the suspicion that England were not as good as they looked in their opening defeats of Ireland and France, and they duly came a cropper in Cardiff.

I personally paid very little attention to their 44-8 defeat of a pathetic France – the visitors were never at the races – but you can’t take anything away from their superb win in Dublin. And if they play with the same accuracy and intensity as they showed there then Italy are probably in for a hiding.

After all, England’s winning margins in their last five matches against Italy read 41, 30, 31, 21 and 31.

But the handicap line is 35 in a place and I find that pretty insulting on current form, even if the weather appears dry and mild for Saturday at the time of writing, though it threatens to be a very windy day.

I am not a massive fan of the five changes England have made from the Wales game – especially the introduction of Ben Te’o at centre and Brad Shields at blindside – though at least Henry Slade and Mark Wilson are on the bench, and I suppose Eddie Jones has to look towards the World Cup with victory here all but assured.

They are still shorn of two of their best workhorses in the pack in Mako Vunipola and Maro Itoje and you only have to go back to the turn of the decade to find three occasions when Italy stayed within a score of England – going down by just five points in 2010, four in 2012 and seven in 2013 – and they have rewarded their handicap backers in all of their three matches in this tournament, as well as all three half-time handicaps, too.

Italy were really very impressive in a 26-16 loss to Ireland in Rome, where scrum-half Tito Tebaldi made a big difference and they didn’t miss Sergio Parisse (who returns here) at all. That followed on from just an 11-point defeat against an admittedly second-string Wales, and some observers thought they were badly done to by the referee a fortnight ago, as well.

Of course, those two games were in Rome, and they were lucky to get so close to Scotland at Murrayfield previously, winning the final 10 minutes of that game 17-0, but they have developed more of a cutting edge as the tournament has progressed.

I can’t have Italy as 35-point underdogs, so that is where my money is going, though with the potential for an Italian blowout always present it's best not to go overboard.

Going back to the half-time situation, Italy actually led 10-5 in this fixture in 2017, and went in just 17-10 and 11-9 down in Rome in 2016 and 2018 respectively. That could be an angle for plenty once again.

I’m sure a fair few also had to do a double-take when the French side to play Ireland in Sunday was announced on Tuesday, as they named an unchanged 23 man-squad from the Scotland game. Apparently it is the first time they have not changed their starting XV since 2003!

That is understandable, laudable even, after their 17-point defeat of Scotland last time, though I must admit that I would have fast-tracked the fit-again Teddy Thomas straight into the side. He has that touch of brilliance that the chosen French wingers lack.

As I have already said though, I think that Scotland game could have turned out very differently on another occasion, and of course France have to go and do it away from Paris here.

They have lost their last nine away matches since beating Italy in 2017, and their record wasn’t too pretty prior to that either, even if they only lost by a point in Cardiff last season.

So that could well play on their minds, for all that I thought Antoine Dupont at nine made a big impression against the Scots. He continually threatened. Their goal-kicking could be a major problem though, as full-back Thomas Ramos didn’t convince in that area.

One suspects that the Ireland of 2018 would give these a 20-plus hammering, rather than the 13 points they are asked to concede on Sunday afternoon, but you have to be worried about the way they are playing at the moment.

They simply look a very tired and jaded outfit, and Italy really rattled them two weeks ago. Ireland should have kicked on from 12-3 up in the first-half but they were knocked out of their stride, though perhaps we are doing the Italians a disservice.

Matches between these sides in Dublin have been very even in recent years - exactly even in fact, with Ireland winning the last two matches (by 10 and 7), drawing 13-13 in 2013, and losing (by three and four points) in a brace of 2011 encounters.

Logic, those recent head-to-head results and maybe the weather (a damp day is forecast off-and-on), point you firmly towards France getting 15 points in a place.

However, something tells me that Joe Schmidt and Andy Farrell would have been laying down the law in the last fortnight - and the axing of Sean Cronin, after a poor Irish line-out display against Italy, from the 37-man squad on Wednesday morning could give that credence – and we may just see the real Ireland here.

And hopefully the France that rocked up in such a disinterested pose at Twickenham, or in the second-half at home to Wales.

Once again though, it’s only a small play on a trappy weekend – not least because the home side don’t see fit to name their starting XV until Friday afternoon, when others manage it on a Tuesday morning, though they look set to be near to full-strength to judge from reports, with some key players returning after missing out against Italy.

It's Ireland with the start for me. Just.

Posted at 1605 GMT on 07/03/19.