Jon Newcombe, from The Rugby Tipster, previews Sunday’s match in the Six Nations with Wales up against Ireland in Cardiff.
Six Nations betting tips: Wales v Ireland
1pt CJ Stander anytime try-scorer at 19/4
1pt A yellow card to be shown in the match at 5/6
1pt Garry Ringrose man-of-the-match at 14/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Wales v Ireland match details
Stadium: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 1500 GMT
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
TV: BBC One & S4C
Wales fans won’t thank us for pointing this it out but the 2019 Six Nations Grand Slam champions will equal their record all-time low in the World Rugby Men’s Rankings if they lose to Ireland.
Ranked briefly at number one before the last Rugby World Cup, on the back of their Six Nations exploits that year, Wales will surrender ninth place to Japan and drop to 10th if most pre-match predictions are right and Ireland become the first away side to win this fixture in eight Six Nations outings.
Both teams had difficult years in 2020 as the respective head coaches, Wayne Pivac and Andy Farrell, struggled to impose their new ways on squads used to hearing the same voice time after time.
Warren Gatland gave Wales over a decade of service, in an era of unprecedented success in the pro era, while Joe Schmidt’s ideas were equally embedded in the Irish DNA.
What's gone wrong for Wales?
Moving on and starting afresh is never easy and it is not surprising that of the two teams, Wales have found it harder. At least Andy Farrell’s internal promotion from assistant coach to head honcho gave Ireland a semblance of continuity.
Wales only won three of their 10 matches in 2020, and those were against Italy, twice, and Georgia, and Pivac finds himself under pressure as a result.
Scarlets enjoyed great success and produced some wonderful attacking rugby under his coaching prior to his Wales appointment, but kicking the so-called ‘Warren-ball’ style of play into touch hasn’t proved to be easy.
Since defeating Italy 42-0 in the opening game of the 2020 Six Nations, Wales have been a shadow of their former selves, defensively as well as with ball in hand. The watertight defence marshalled by Shaun Edwards, now with France, has unravelled and, most worryingly for this game against Ireland, the set-piece has been a major let down.
Putting Ireland’s hot-and-cold attack to one side, one thing they do consistently well is scrum and maul, and with Paul O’Connell now on board as forwards coach, they are only going to get better at winning set-piece possession.
Four of the 17 tries they scored in last year’s Championship came directly from scrum strike moves, and a big ball carrier like CJ Stander, joint top-try-scorer in the 2017 Six Nations, will no doubt be given plenty of opportunities to try and bludgeon his way over. The No.8 is 19/4 to be an anytime try-scorer (Bet 365).
Ireland have not beaten Wales in Cardiff in the Six Nations since 2013 but this looks as good a time as any to set the record straight, argues The Rugby Tipster.
The early handicap lines had them at -1, which was clearly tempting a lot of punters even before Wales lost their most prolific finisher, Josh Adams, to a COVID-19 faux pas, as it has now moved out by three points to -4.
These two sides are responsible for the only draw on the opening weekend of a Six Nations Championship (in 2016), and the bookies understandably have Sunday’s fixture marked down as close so we’re going to concentrate on the match betting and go for Ireland to make it five wins in a row against Wales at 5/8 (Bet 365).
Why Ireland will beat Wales
When you take a look at the respective back lines, Ireland’s combinations are far more tried and tested which should help them to take advantage of any opportunities that come their way.
Wales’ back-three of Leigh Halfpenny, Hallam Amos and teen sensation Louis Rees-Zammit, Adams’ replacement, have never started a Test together before, and the centre pairing of Johnny Williams and George North is still in the experimental stage. At half-back, Tomos Williams and Dan Biggar are operating in tandem from the start for only the fourth time at this level.
Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton are age-old practitioners by comparison, while Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose are beginning to enter the same space as long-time team-mates, Gordon D’Arcy and Brian O’Driscoll, as midfield partners in crime.
Ringrose is a quality act, when fit, and his head-to-head with North won’t be for the faint-hearted. If the Leinster man can stop North in his tracks and also threaten himself, he will put himself in a good position to be man-of-the-match. For a game-changing player like Ringrose, 14/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, Betway) is generous odds.
Upfront, Wales have a wealth of experience and the back-row of Taulupe Faletau, Justin Tipuric and the recalled Dan Lydiate deserves the utmost respect.
Meanwhile, the world’s most-capped player, Alun Wyn Jones is fit to take his place in the second row and Ken Owens’ presence in the middle of the front row will, hopefully for the hosts, help take some of the pressure off the lineout as well as giving Jones another experienced head to turn to.
Wales have proved vulnerable though when things start to creak in the forwards, and looking at the options available on the bench, you’d have to say Ireland are better suited to finishing the game on top in the physical exchanges. This is backed up by the fact that Ireland scored seven tries in the final quarter of their matches in the 2020 Six Nations, more than any other side.
In matches as fiercely contested as these, the referee has a big role to play, and you do not get any more experienced than Wayne Barnes. Barnes equals Nigel Owens’ record of 21 Six Nations matches as a referee on Sunday, and five of those appointments have been in fixtures involving these sides.
Barnes has issued a yellow card in the last four Wales v Ireland meetings, dishing out two apiece in 2012 and 2015, so it would be reasonable to assume at least one player will be masked up and taking a 10-minute breather in the Principality Stadium at some point throughout the afternoon.
Remarkably, Wales went the whole of 2020 without having a man sent to the sin-bin, so they are due a yellow card, as are Ireland, who received three in the 2020 Six Nations but none thereafter.
