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Free rugby union betting tips: Six Nations top try-scorer preview and best bet
Can Antoine Dupont break more new ground in the Six Nations top try-scorer market? Jon Newcombe of The Rugby Tipster analyses past trends and gives an insight into who to back in this season’s Championship.
Rugby union betting tips: Six Nations top try-scorer
France captain Charles Ollivon created history last year by becoming the first back-row player to finish out on his own at the top of the Six Nations try-scorer charts.
Fellow Frenchman Imanol Harinordoquy (2004) and Ireland’s CJ Stander (2017) also achieved the feat from the back of the scrum but in years when the accolade was shared.
Ollivon’s four tries, half of which came in the opening fixture against England, were enough to see off his nearest challengers Josh Adams, Justin Tipuric and countryman Romain Ntamack.
Who will be the Six Nations top try scorer?
Whilst it is unlikely a flanker will go back-to-back as the Six Nations top try-scorer, we’re backing Ollivon’s France team-mate Antoine Dupont to break new ground and become the first scrum-half to win it outright. England's Austin Healey and Danny Care were joint-top, in 2000 and 2017, respectively.
Ignoring Dupont’s first 13 Tests when he failed to cross the whitewash, the Toulouse star has bagged seven tries in 14 appearances for France.
The 24-year-old is a player on top of his game right now and has stunning international form in the Autumn has continued into this season with Les Rouges et Noir, with six tries in nine starts in all competitions.
In Toulouse’s 59-0 demolition of Agen the weekend before last, Dupont was in sensational form as an attacking threat.
The livewire scrum-half scored one of his side’s nine tries, made two clean breaks, beat five defenders and ran for 100 metres with ball in hand.
Getting off to a fast start in such a short race is obviously beneficial to a player’s chances of winning the top try-scorer award, as Ollivon showed with his brace in the ‘Le Crunch’ encounter with England.
So Dupont needs to cash in against an Italian side that has been leaking tries for fun in France’s opening game of the Championship in Rome.
Dupont’s speed off the mark and ability to keep up with play puts him in the right positions to trouble defences far better than the Azzurri’s, and the scrum-half will fancy his chances of crossing the whitewash at least once at the Stade Olimpico.
Who could be England's top Six Nations try scorer?
With England strong favourites to win the title, it is no wonder that wing Jonny May is rated as 9/2 favourite.
May is a class finisher, of that there is no doubt, but he’s only managed two tries in his last eight Tests for England, and both of those came in the same game – the Autumn Nations Cup win over Ireland. One try in his last nine league outings for Gloucester is not a record to inspire confidence in the Wiltshire wing wizard’s ability to justify such short odds.
Meanwhile, France’s Teddy Thomas is another player with ridiculous amounts of gas and an impressive strike rate of 13 tries in 22 starts. At 15/2, he may be better value than May.
Damian Penaud (12/1) is back from a long injury on the other flank for Les Bleus and could take some time to get into his rangy stride.
Wales and Ireland have failed to fire in attack of late and it is hard to see the top try-scorer coming from either of these two countries.
George North, who won it outright in 2016 and shared the honour in 2017, is looking sharper in the Ospreys’ mini-renaissance under Toby Booth, but the man with a century of caps to his name has struggled to get many opportunities in space in a red jersey. The same applies to Adams, the top finisher at Rugby World Cup 2019 and last year’s Six Nations runner-up.
Can Wales and Ireland fire their try scoring backs?
Meanwhile, Keith Earls’ race as a top finisher at this level appears to have been run. The Munsterman was joint-top in 2010 and 2017 but he had an 11-game try-scoring drought in Test rugby in 2019/20 before breaking the run with a brace in a relatively meaningless Autumn Nations Cup fixture at the start of December.
With 2018 Six Nations Player of the Championship, Jacob Stockdale, out injured, Ireland appear to be short of live contenders for the top try-scoring crown.
Hugo Keenan (25/1), James Lowe (16/1) and Earls (20/1) are probably head coach Andy Farrell’s favoured back-three options. But Jordan Larmour and Andrew Conway won’t be far from his thoughts and if Farrell does decide to chop-and-change his wingers and full-back, that’s another negative against backing an Irish winner.
Outside chances for Six Nations top try scorer
One player who’ll be looking to impress as a potential bolter for the British & Irish Lions is Scotland’s powerfully-built winger Duhan van der Merwe.
The South African-born player takes some stopping and arguments to support him at 16/1 have some merit. The weight of history is against van der Merwe, however, as Stuart Hogg (joint top in 2017) is the only Scot to have his name on the 39-strong list of Six Nations top try-scorers.
If you’re looking for a real outsider, Italian outside centre Marco Zanon may be worth a speculative each way punt at 150/1.
Zanon looked Italy’s most incisive runner in the Autumn Nations Cup and has the ability to find his way to the try line.
That said, Italy need to click much better as an attacking force if he is to have any chance of becoming only the second Italian after Mirco Bergamasco in 2006 to top the charts (shared with Shane Horgan).
Typically it is a back-three player that comes out on top in the race to be Six Nations try-scorer, but we’re looking to the world’s best scrum-half Dupont to buck the trend and do the business at 18/1.
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