Six Nations betting tips: Ireland to beat Wales

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2.75pts Ireland (-2) v Wales at 5/6

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In the immediate aftermath of Ireland’s 19-9 defeat of France a fortnight ago – a match that followed on swiftly from Wales’ second-half capitulation at Murrayfield – someone asked me on Twitter how I would handicap Friday’s Wales v Ireland match.

My answer was Ireland -8, so you can imagine my shock when I looked the next morning and saw Ireland available at 5/6 off scratch and the general handicap line set at one.

That was plain wrong, so it is not in the least surprising that those prices have since disappeared.  But you can still back the away side conceding just a two-point start at 10/11 with three firms (though if you have to take -3 that is acceptable), and that has to be the bet.

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We tipped Wales at 9/2 to finish fifth at the start of the tournament and we are sitting pretty there. They are now 3/10 with the two firms that have priced up the market and, although that is probably a touch short, it does reflect how badly their campaign has gone.

Well, badly is pushing it a bit, though it has certainly been Jekyll and Hyde.

Outside of Italy, they have been responsible for two of the worst halves of rugby by any side in this tournament so far (England claimed the third against Italy), namely when turning around 7-3 down in Rome and then losing the second half 20-0 to Scotland a fortnight ago.

But then you look at their performance against England, when only undone by a 76th-minute try – and to a lesser extent in the first 40 minutes against the Scots, when they should have led by far more than the 13-9 interval scoreline - and you saw a half-decent side.

If could well be that a Friday night back in Cardiff in front of a fuelled-up home crowd (mind you I don’t think the Irish contingent will be tee-total) will see them put in a 80-minute performance and test the Irish to the full, but I would want a bigger outright price than 6/4, and a few more points on the handicap, before I could side with them.

That second half against the Scots must have been very worrying for Rob Howley and his coaching staff. 

Sure, Scotland are a lot better side than most gave them credit for at the start of the tournament but the way in which they caved in after the break – and they had a strong bench, remember - and generally looked direction-less, bore all the hallmarks of a side lacking confidence and composure.

No aspect of their game convinces me at the moment, and they are coming up against an Ireland improving game-by-game and with the potential to blow them away if coming back to their late autumn form.

To be honest, I was expecting more than a 10-point defeat of France in Dublin a fortnight ago but the weather was a big leveller and you had to take your hat off to the French.

Indeed, France could well have been in a dominant position at 13-0 up after 20 minutes if the slightest of knock-ons had not been detected, and they have generally looked a much-improved side in this tournament.

Ireland couldn’t get their slick, off-loading game going there in the wet conditions, and had to 'dog' it out. But if they gain ascendancy in the set-piece – and I fancy their chances in the scrum – then I expect their more penetrative three-quarter line to put the Welsh away.

Wales have got the better of Ireland in recent Six Nations games – drawing 16-16 in Dublin last year, and winning this fixture 23-16 in 2015 – and have commendably stuck with the same side on Friday, but I fully expect the away team to win this by a score or more.

Ireland are also able to field their same starting XV as against France, even if their bench (which has depth in anyone’s language) is a touch weaker than a fortnight ago.

The first match up on Saturday is Italy v France, and I imagine about 10 points was knocked off the handicap line after Italy held England to 36-15 at Twickenham.

Of course, their tactics there were somewhat controversial – though hardly new – but you play within the rules, especially when you are more than 40-point underdogs, and that is exactly what they did.  In fact, although they got lucky with a try on the stroke of half-time to go in 10-5 up, they pretty much dominated territory in the first-half and deserved their lead.

They were never going to hold on after Eddie Jones got stuck into his shell-shocked side at the interval – even though players such as Nathan Hughes used the very same “no offside line” tactics for Wasps earlier this season – but to their credit they dug in, scored another try, and England only pulled away in the last 15 minutes.

Italy will have taken a lot of heart from that performance, as they will from their recent record against France. 

They should have won when losing 23-21 in Paris last year, and they won this fixture 23-18 in 2013 and 22-21 in 2011.

However, as said above, France have done nothing but impress me in this tournament and you have to remember how poor Italy were in the second half against Wales and the full 80 minutes against Ireland before you get carried away by that England performance.

If France get their tails up early, then they could make light of the 18-point handicap – one firm is -17 at the time of writing – but I can happily sit this one out. The 'coast' factor once sides have secured the bonus point always worries me, and Italy’s three changes from the England game don’t weaken their side.

We got a bit lucky with our 18/1 tip for Italy to reach 10 points before England - I was actually a bit gutted we didn’t cop on them at 12/1 to score the first try too such was their early territory dominance - but no such generosity this weekend as the biggest price about the home side hitting double-figures first ranges from 10/3 to 5/1.

We are on Scotland at 10/1 to finish in the top two – we are now 9/4 to get that one over the line, while they are a top-priced 11/1 to win the tournament with Italy up last – but to be honest I am not expecting them to win at Twickenham.

I hope I am wrong but the last thing the Scots would have wanted was to see England humiliated by Italy a fortnight ago – and some of their players would have been better off keeping their mouths shut this week -  and they can expect a hefty backlash on Saturday evening. I’d take a losing bonus point now, thanks.

That may be a touch pessimistic given the way the Scots pulled themselves together in the second half against Wales to go and dominate the game, and let’s not lose sight of the fact that England left it very late to put all three of their matches to bed, too.

Indeed, England have failed to cover the handicap line in any of their games, while Scotland have in all their matches.

However, my gut feel tells me that England will really the turn the screw on the Scots in the set-piece and if the home side get on the front foot the general handicap line of 11 could be easily bridgeable.

But here is hoping for another England no-show, anyway.

Where to watch on TV: Wales v Ireland on BBC1, England v Scotland & Italy v France on ITV.

Posted at 1000 GMT on 09/03/17