Jon Newcombe runs the rule over Saturday's Six Nations action, including a mouthwatering clash between Ireland and England in Dublin.
Six Nations betting tips: Ireland vs England
3pts England to score under 18.5 points at 10/11 (Betfair Sportsbook)
2pts Ireland to win by 11-15 points at 13/2 (Betfred)
1pt Dan Sheehan last tryscorer at 9/1 (General)
Ireland vs England
- Saturday 1645 GMT
- Aviva Stadium
- Live on ITV1 and ITVX
Ireland’s previously impenetrable Aviva Stadium fortress was breached for the first time in 20 Tests in the Autumn Nations Series, with New Zealand coming away from Dublin with a 23-13 victory. Ireland got back to winnings ways in their next three home Tests against Argentina, Fiji and Australia, but the very nature of their loss to the All Blacks has opened the conversation that the two-time reigning Six Nations champions might have plateaued, if not gone slightly backwards.
Stopping Ireland getting quick ruck ball will be key to England withstanding wave after wave of Irish attacks this Saturday, and as such, they have picked two of the game’s ultimate spoilers/poachers at the breakdown in Tom and Ben Curry – the first twins to ever start for England. If England can catch Ireland behind the gain-line, and those two pounce, Ireland might struggle to function as fluently as they’d like.
Ireland know their game plan inside and out, and the suspicion is that opponents do too, but stopping the green machine is another thing altogether, especially when they’re into their rhythm. And anyway, it’s much better to have players all on the same page and playing a style familiar to them than England’s ongoing identity crisis. England can string together good rugby in fits and starts but can they pull it all together for 80 minutes against a proven, quality outfit like Ireland? We think not.
Until England properly address how they want to play the game, they will be stuck in no-man’s land. On one hand you have a leader in Steve Borthwick who espouses pragmatism and an attack coach in Richard Wigglesworth who, while being an excellent scrum-half, was perhaps the most defensive 9 in the league of his time. On the other, you have the cavalier-like Marcus Smith who’s been selected as the man to make things happen at 10.
England only averaged between five and six line breaks per match in the autumn and are overly reliant on the Harlequins man producing a moment of magic to break through defences, which is why we think they’ll struggle to score more than 18 POINTS.
Last year’s 23-22 win for England, in which Smith scored the match-winning drop goal, was the first in five fixtures between the teams that did not feature a red card. However, we do feel that Saturday’s referee Ben O’Keeffe could play a prominent part in proceedings in one way or the other.
England have lost their last five matches with the New Zealand official in the middle, including the Rugby World Cup semi-final with South Africa and last-gasp 42-37 loss to Australia in November. On the flip side, Ireland’s discipline is not where it should be. Unlike England who kept all 15 players on the park in their four November Tests, Ireland received three yellow cards in their last three games to take their total for the year to 10, so it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see O’Keeffe reaching into his pocket at some point.
The cards markets could make interesting viewing when prices become available.
England have won at the Aviva Stadium on four occasions in the Six Nations, all in odd-numbered years (2003, 2011, 2013 and 2019), but it really is clutching at straws to expect 2025 to be added to that list.
Ireland have the power game and the ruthlessness to get their bid for a historic three-peat of titles off to a winning start, and it’s easy to envisage a DAN SHEEHAN try off the bench from a driving maul being the last scoring act of a double-digit victory, with IRELAND BY 11-15 POINTS worth a bet at 5/1 and bigger.
Leinster man Sheehan scored two tries in his first game back from a serious knee injury against the Stormers last week and should get a good 25-30 minutes to add to the five tries he managed in last year’s championship when he was joint-top try-scorer with Duhan van der Merwe.
Scotland vs Italy
4pts Italy +13 match handicap at 17/10 (BoyleSports)
- Saturday 1415 GMT
- Murrayfield
- Live on BBC1 and iPlayer
With a core of experienced players in their pomp, a good set of autumn results behind them and three home games coming up, Scotland have every reason to be optimistic going into the Six Nations. And layers haven’t given Italy a chance of bursting that bubble, quoting Scotland at an unbackable 1/10 to get their campaign off to a winning start – something they have managed to do in round one for the last four years.
Italy’s last win at Murrayfield was a decade ago but they, too, have a largely settled team and one that goes into this championship relatively bullish after their most successful Six Nations ever in 2024.
A couple of scrappy performances against Argentina and Georgia in the autumn have dampened the upbeat mood a fraction, but the resilience that the Azzurri showed in their final November Test against the All Blacks suggests the blow-outs they suffered at the hands of better teams at the 2023 World Cup are a thing of the past, hence our strong recommendation to back ITALY ON THE HANDICAP.
One of Italy’s two wins in last year’s tournament was at home to Scotland (31-29) and their new-found defensive resolve and the fact that Scotland still don’t put enough chances away when they’re in the pressure zone, makes us think that there won’t be more than two scores between the teams.
Scotland chalked up wins against Fiji, Portugal and Australia in the Autumn but let a golden chance to beat the Springboks slip away from them. Also, Italy now score tries. Last year’s Ireland result aside (when they were nilled in Dublin), Italy haven’t been the doughnuts of old in attack.
As well as possessing one of the most dangerous players in world rugby, Ange Capuozzo, Italy have arguably the best centre combination in the championship in Tommaso Menoncello, last year’s Player of the Championship, and Ignacio Brex, who turned in a man-of-the-match performance against the Scots in last year’s 31-29 win in Rome.
With Scotland missing their midfield lynchpin and captain, Sione Tuipulotu, and replaced at inside-centre by the one-paced Staff McDowall, this could be an area that the Azzurri will look to exploit.
After finishing last year’s championship with wins over the Scots and Wales, Italy are gunning for an unprecedented hat-trick. That may be beyond them, especially with the Murrayfield factor, but we expect them to push Scotland just as hard as they pushed England in losing by three points in their first hit-out in 2024.
Scotland tended to fly out of the blocks in last year’s Six Nations, scoring 37% of their points (42/115) in the opening quarter of matches, while Italy were not immune from conceding early on, so expect the home side to get their noses in front but the Azzurri to stay in the fight.
Posted at 1145 GMT on 31/01/25
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