Jon Newcombe previews Sunday's clash between Italy and France and can't see past the favourites, who can keep on course for a massive showdown with Ireland.
Six Nations betting tips: Italy vs France
3pts Italy under 18.5 points at 5/6 (William Hill)
1pt France to win by 16-20 points at 6/1 (bet365)
Italy vs France
- Sunday 1500 GMT
- Rome
- Live on ITV
France have never lost consecutive matches in the Six Nations Championship under the coaching Fabian Galthie and I don’t expect that to change in Rome this Sunday.
While playing at home is starting to actually feel like an advantage for the Azzurri after years when the Stadio Olimpico was anything but a Colosseum, Italy still don’t score enough points to beat the better teams. To get just 22 against the poorest Welsh side in history suggests as much, while against Scotland in round one the 19 points they got were largely handed to them on a plate rather than through carefully crafted backs moves.
To compound matters, they are missing one of their most productive players through injury in winger Monty Ioane.
Italy are averaging just 13.1 points in their last 10 meetings with France, all of which have been defeats, with the last of their three wins against Les Bleus coming in 2013, although they did draw 13-13 in Lille last year.
For that reason, I’d recommend going UNDER 18.5 POINTS for Italy (5/6, William Hill) and for them to play close to their handicap of +17.5. In my mind, that might be a tad generous because this Italian team has a very settled and solid look about it, but the handicap line for the defeat to Scotland and for the win at home to Wales was so precise VAR could have drawn it.
With that in mind, FRANCE TO WIN BY 16-20 POINTS looks the best option on balance.
For France to stand any chance of winning their first Six Nations title since 2022, they need to go to Dublin in round four with a bonus-point win against Italy in the bag. Presuming Ireland achieve the same against Wales on Saturday, the teams will meet in the penultimate round with hosts Ireland four points ahead of them in the table and a five-point banker against Italy to come for the treble-chasing Irish in their final fixture.
So, for that reason, Les Bleus need to score tries and it would be reasonable to assume they’ll get at least five, which is 4/6 with William Hill, that's as long as they remember how to catch the ball after a bad case of the ‘dropsies’ against England.
Moving Thomas Ramos to 10 is a smart move. He dovetails well with Antoine Dupont for both club (Toulouse) and country and is equally effective with a 10 on his back as he is at 15.
The weather is forecast to be one of those gorgeous spring-like days in Rome, with temperatures of around 16 degrees and sunny intervals, so that should work in their favour as an attacking outfit. And as Ramos is a master of turning five points into seven with his brilliant conversion rate, France should have enough about them to keep at least two scores clear of Italy.
Posted at 1535 GMT on 21/02/25
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