Warren Gatland
Warren Gatland

Six Nations tips: France vs Wales preview and best bets


The Six Nations begins at the Stade de France, where the favourites will oblige but perhaps after a slower-than-expected start. Jon Newcombe previews France vs Wales.

Six Nations betting tips: France vs Wales

2pts Wales +13.5 first-half handicap at 10/11 (bet365)

1pt Wales to lead after 10 minutes at 13/2 (bet365)

1pt Wales to score first at 13/5 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook


This year’s opening round of the Guinness Six Nations promises to be the exact opposite of the two previous tournaments when the away side won every match. Six times out of six visiting teams went and drew first blood, but that trend will surely come to an abrupt end in the curtain-raiser between France and Wales at Stade de France this Friday evening.

Wales are similar odds to beat France in Paris as Japan were when they famously downed South Africa 34-32 at the 2015 Rugby World Cup. That was the biggest upset in World Cup history, and a Wales win tonight would be one of the biggest in Six Nations history.

In terms of the gulf between the teams, France are seven places higher than Wales and 14.5 points better off in the rankings, whereas the Springboks were 12.97 points in front of Japan but 10 places higher. Miracles happen in rugby, just not very often, and somehow a win for the Welsh seems more fanciful than it did for the Brave Blossoms nearly a decade ago.

One source of encouragement for the visitors is their decent record at Stade de France and the fact that France have a tendency to start the Six Nations slowly. Wales have won five of the 12 Six Nations meetings in Paris, although the last of them was in 2019, the year that Warren Gatland’s team was briefly number one in the world. They have since fallen to 11th on the back of a record run of 12 straight defeats, which included last year’s Six Nations wooden spoon.

France scored exactly 10 points in the first half of six of their 10 tests in 2024, and with Wales welcoming back the experience of players like Liam Williams and Josh Adams to marshal the back-field, they might not be caught as cold as they were when they played Scotland at home in last season’s opening round. After conceding 20 unanswered points in the first half against Scotland, Wales will have put a big emphasis on a better start this time around.

With that in mind, it might be worth a small wager on Warren Gatland’s side to silence Paris and win the race to be ahead at the 10-minute mark (a generous 13/2 in bet365's three-way market or 9/1 to lead by 1-5 points), and snapping up the 13/5 available on them scoring first. Wales only managed to do that in two of their 11 Tests in 2024 but in their last six against France, all of them defeats, they have taken the lead in half of them, while the average half-time deficit between the teams at half-time in that run is just 5.5 points.

One weakness might also be their strength when it comes to the first-half handicap betting. Wales are on something like their fifth-choice tighthead and France will expect to dominate them in the scrum and win penalties there, even though they have had plenty of injuries at prop themselves. France like to get the scoreboard moving and are not averse to kicking for goal in the first half of matches. Conceding points in threes rather than fives or sevens will suit Wales backers on the first-half handicap.

France will go on to win the match, and win comfortably, possibly by more than 30 points, as it is hard to see Wales troubling France too much when they have the ball; it’s a sad indictment of their attacking play last year that there were more penalty tries scored than any individual player managed. However, this young Wales team has a year of growth in them, and some influential players back, and we don’t expect them to roll over in the initial exchanges, despite what the doom-mongers might say.

Posted at 0935 GMT on 31/01/25

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