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Six Nations tips: Best bets for this weekend's round three matches including Wales v England
Jon Newcombe returns to preview the third round of Six Nations matches, concluding with France v Scotland in Paris on Sunday afternoon.
Rugby union betting tips: Six Nations round three
3pts Scotland (+8.5) to beat France at 10/11 (General)
1pt over 49.5 points in France v Scotland at 10/11 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Scotland to beat France at 3/1 (General)
0.5pt France/Scotland half-time/full-time at 14/1 (Betfred)
Saturday's Six Nations winners...
- First-half to be highest scoring in Ireland v Italy
- England (-6) to beat Wales
- Wales to score under 19.5 points
- Antony Watson anytime try-scorer
France v Scotland
- Stade de France, Paris
- Sunday, 1500 GMT
- ITV Sport
With an even four wins and four defeats, Gregor Townsend’s record against France as head coach is far better than it ever was as a player (P12, W3, L9).
He steered SCOTLAND to a famous victory at the Stade de France two years ago and a repeat of that result is definitely not inconceivable in the last of the round three matches.
The consistency of selection afforded to Townsend is being rewarded with more consistent performances and the Scots head to Paris on the back of unprecedented start to the Six Nations, and full of confidence.
Until this season the Scots had never won their first two games in a Six Nations and they are a very tempting bet to make it three in a row.
The range of odds on an away win is relatively wide, from as skinny as 9/4 up to a best-priced 3/1, which just goes to show how undecided the layers are about a match-up that should be closer to 50:50 in our opinion.
Scotland’s odds to beat England fell within that range and they were worthy winners that day, so there is the potential for another decent payout.
The slight reticence in backing Scotland comes with the belief that the defending champions France have a big performance in them and with a home World Cup coming ever closer, they need to put it out on the pitch sooner rather than later.
Whilst they produced some flashes of brilliance in losing to Ireland in round two, Fabian Galthie’s side always looked like they were holding on rather than seizing the day in Dublin.
Our pre-Championship forecast that Jonathan Danty would be a big miss on both sides of the ball from France’s midfield has proved to be correct.
After half a game for his club following long-term injury, head coach Galthie would have been tempted to throw him straight back into the mix. However, he has chosen not to and with Uini Atonio also missing, through suspension, France will be without another big ball-carrying presence.
Based purely on the stats for this season, a small investment in FRANCE HALF-TIME/SCOTLAND FULL-TIME is also worth considering at as big as 14/1.
While France have been significantly better at putting points on the board in the first half compared to the second with a 73/27% split, Scotland have come alive on the scoreboard in the second.
Scotland have scored 64 points in their opening two matches and 39 of them have come after the break (39/61%).
We’d expect both teams to give it a good crack on what is forecast to be a dry, bright and crisp day in Paris and with so many dangerous runners on show, over 49.5 points should be well within their capabilities.
However we'll stay faithful to the idea that Scotland are overpriced in all markets and make them a confident selection on the HANDICAP, too.
Italy v Ireland
- Stadio Olimpico, Rome
- Saturday, 1415 GMT
- ITV Sport
Any Italian game in the Six Nations is difficult to call and this one is no different given the Azzurri’s renewed confidence and the tinkering done to Ireland’s starting XV.
Johnny Sexton’s inability to last the distance in a Six Nations campaign means Ross Byrne gets his first Six Nations start at 10.
While Ireland win 67% of the games the crocked Sexton starts and only 54% of the games he doesn’t (against tier one nations), it’s hard to see Italy pulling off a huge upset.
One decent opportunity, however, could be in backing the FIRST HALF TO BE THE HIGHEST-SCORING at odds-against.
Ireland have piled on the points in the first 40 in their wins over Wales and France, scoring 49 of their 66 points before the break (74 per cent).
Italy do score more second-half points than in the first but nowhere near in the same volume and in the least-appealing tie of the round, that's the play to small stakes.
Wales v England
- Principality Stadium, Cardiff
- Saturday, 1645 GMT
- BBC One, S4C
With Wales’ training week dominated by strike news, not strike moves, it has been a chaotic build-up for Warren Gatland’s beleaguered side, one where rugby has taken the back seat.
Thursday is normally a big day in Test match preparations but instead of honing their skills Wales’ players were locked in intense contract talks with the WRU.
Missing that session means they won’t be in as good a place as they normally would be heading into such a pivotal fixture, however, now that the off-field stuff is temporarily resolved, the players can channel all their energies into Saturday’s clash.
Emotionally, the whole sorry saga will have galvanised them and, as we all know, Wales love nothing more than beating England. So, on the face of it, 5/2 about a home win is tempting.
England will need to match Wales’ passion but passion and emotion can only get you so far, especially with an attack that fires so few shots.
Wales only have one GOAT at present, the regimental one that they parade before every big match in Cardiff, who arguably eats up the Principality Stadium grass quicker than any of their backs – other than Rees-lightening.
Louis Rees-Zammit’s return adds stardust to the team but while the speedster proved he can make the most out of any half-chances that come his way in a sparkling return match for Gloucester against Harlequins the other night, the youngster has struggled to get the ball in time and space when playing for Wales.
Much of this is to do with the fact that Wales have failed to replace Hadleigh Parkes ever since he left Wales for Japan.
Getting the ball out to the wide channels in time and space has proved problematic. How they would love to have a settled combination like the good old days when Jamie Roberts provided the brute force and Jon Davies the guile.
Now that Mason Grady has been handed his debut alongside another rookie in Joe Hawkins, Wales will field their 17th different midfield partnership since the end of the last Rugby World Cup. That’s virtually a different 12-13 axis every other game.
So while a famous backs-against-the wall victory makes for a lovely narrative and would come at quite a profit, Wales simply don’t score enough points to back them with any confidence and the constant state of flux at centre has contributed to this.
WALES UNDER 19.5 POINTS is 20/23 with Betfair and Paddy Power and looks very solid.
In 34 of the last 36 Six Nations fixtures the winning team scored more than 20 points, which puts Wales’ numbers in the competition since they won it in 2021 firmly in the shade.
Last season they set a new low with just 76 points scored in an entire Six Nations campaign, and they could beat that again this year having accrued just 17 in the disappointing defeats to Ireland and Scotland. Combine the two seasons and Wales’ average per match is just 13 points.
In the only change to the England starting XV, ANTHONY WATSON is named on the left wing and gets his first start for his country in nearly two years, at the ground where he scored the first of his 22 Test tries for his country in 2015.
A replacement in the round one defeat to Scotland, Watson has a good Six Nations record against Wales having scored four tries in five matches and is a bet at just under 2/1 to add to his collection in a game where backing ENGLAND ON THE HANDICAP is clearly the way to go.
- For more from Jon, follow @betsonrugby on twitter
Posted at 1620 GMT on 23/03/23
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