Six Nations tips: Best bets for this weekend’s round three matches including England v Wales

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Six Nations betting tips: Round three

0.5pt Josh van der Flier anytime try-scorer at 9/5 (Paddy Power)

0.5pt Jamison Gibson-Park anytime try-scorer at 12/5 (Paddy Power)

1pt Ireland -39 on the handicap at 10/11 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Ireland v Italy

Kick-off time: Sunday, 1500 GMT

Venue: Aviva Stadium

Where to watch: ITV

Best bet: Ireland on the handicap

Key stats

• Ireland have won 21 of their 22 previous Guinness Six Nations matches against Italy, their sole defeat coming in 2013 (15-22), in what was the Azzurri’s last home victory in the Championship.
• Italy’s next defeat will be their 100th in the Six Nations, they are currently on a record 34-match losing run in the Championship
• It is almost seven years ago to the day since Italy last tasted victory (22-19 v Scotland, 28 Feb 2015)
• Ireland hold a 100% win rate against Italy at home in the Six Nations (W11), the Azzurri are the only side in the Championship that has never beaten Ireland at the Aviva Stadium or Croke Park
• Ireland have scored 50+ points in each of their last three home games against Italy in the Six Nations, 18 different Irish players crossing for a combined 24 tries in that period
• In a run stretching back to 2013, Ireland have lost just two of their last 22 home games in the Guinness Six Nations (W18, D2), those defeats coming at the hands of England (2019) and France (2021)
• After two rounds of the 2022 Guinness Six Nations, Ireland have the best rate for points per entry into the opposition 22, averaging 2.6 points from their 19 entries, whilst Italy have the worst rate (0.5 points/15 entries)
• Ireland have scored 47 points across the opening 20 minutes of each half in their two matches so far and just six in the second 20 minutes of each half, Italy are yet to score a second half point at all and were kept pointless by England in Round 2

Given Italy’s woeful record in the Six Nations, the question here is not will Ireland win but by how many.

Previous Irish teams might have fluffed their lines when asked to cover such a large handicap, even against opposition such as this, but in the last year or so they have really come on as an attacking force under Andy Farrell.

In the round two defeat in Paris, Ireland outscored the French in the try count, three tries to two. Ireland are averaging seven tries per game over their last six fixtures and even allowing for the fact that 19 of those were against USA and Japan, that’s still impressive.

To overcome the handicap, it is likely that Ireland will need to get to the half-century mark, which means they cannot afford to be profligate in attack.

But this Ireland team is a well-coached outfit that has the composure and the playbook to make opportunities in the opposition 22 count – something that Italy can only aspire to.

Unsurprisingly for a side laced with Leinster players, the tries often come from multiple sources which creates some bigger priced opportunities in the anytime try-scorer market.

Josh van der Flier got on the scoresheet in Paris and is 9/5 to do so again. Having scored just once in his first 25 caps, the scrum-cap wearing flanker now has five in his last 13 Test appearances.

Also, you’d fancy Jamison Gibson-Park – another try-scorer in Paris – to dart over in and around the ruck against a stretched and stressed Italian defensive line.

• CLICK HERE to back Ireland on the handicap with Sky Bet

For more, visit therugbytipster.com

Saturday's tips

0.5pt France to win by 6-10pts at 11/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

0.5pt Melvyn Jaminet to be Player of the Match at 16/1 (General)

1pt over 44.5 match points at evens (Unibet)

2pts England/England – half-time/full-time betting at 4/9 (Betfair, Betfred)

0.5pt England to win by 11-15 points at 6/1 (Betfair)

0.5pt Kyle Sinckler anytime try-scorer at 8/1 (Betfred)

0.5pt Marcus Smith to be Player of the Match at 6/1 (Coral)

Scotland v France

Kick-off time: Saturday, 1415 GMT

Venue: Murrayfield

Where to watch: ITV

Best bet: Over 44.5 on match points

Key stats

• This will be the 99th meeting between Scotland and France in all competitions, France lead the head-to-head so far with 56 wins (L39, D3). However, honours are even across the last 10 clashes
• France are the only team to have won both of their opening matches in this year’s Championship
• Scotland won 27-23 when the sides met in Paris last year, the first time they have won there in the Six Nations era
• Scotland have won the last three meetings at Murrayfield
• A shadow French team did win on their last visit to the ground in 2020 though, 22-15 in the Autumn Nations Cup
• France full-back Melvyn Jaminet is the joint top point scorer after round two with 30 alongside England fly-half Marcus Smith
• Tournament top try-scorer Gabin Villière (3 tries) is ruled out through injury
• Scotland have conceded the most penalties (26) in the Championship and have received one of only three yellow cards awarded
• Scotland have beaten more defenders (42) than any other side in the 2022 Guinness Six Nations, France rank second in this category

France typically manage to find a banana skin to slip up on just when they appear set for Six Nations glory but we don’t think this will be it.

Scotland away has proved a tough fixture for Les Bleus in recent years but they look primed to come away from Edinburgh with their first win there in the Six Nations since 2014 and continue on their journey to a first Six Nations Grand Slam and title since 2010.

At full strength, Scotland would have ran France very close, and you could have quite easily made a case for them to repeat the victories of 2016, 2018 and 2020 on Saturday.

But with three key members of their pack ruled out because of injury in Rory Sutherland, Jamie Ritchie and Matt Fagerson, the spine of their pack is missing.

Scotland’s set-piece has held up very well – they have the best lineout and scrum success in the Six Nations – but it is matching France’s physicality in open play that may be the issue.

Scotland have two sets of front rows arguably as good as one another, which helps compensate for the loss of British and Irish Lion Sutherland. However, Ritchie and Fagerson’s work-rate around the park is tough to replace.

Ritchie is the perfect foil for Hamish Watson in the collision areas, while Fagerson consistently took the game to England with his strong carries earning him the player of the match award in the Calcutta Cup win in round one.

Magnus Bradbury, Fagerson’s replacement at the back of the Scottish pack, will have a tough job eclipsing Gregory Alldritt, who we successfully picked to be Player of the Match in France’s win over Ireland at 16/1.

For France, Six Nations leading try-scorer Gabin Villière misses out because of the cheek injury he sustained in the round two win over Ireland. Yoram Moefana moves from the midfield to the wing and Jonathan Danty comes back into centre as a result. Otherwise, France’s 23 is unchanged.

With a relatively settled team that knows exactly how it wants to play, we believe France can cancel out home advantage – which has been a thing in 2022, as opposed to the COVID-affect Championship in 2021 – and just about overcome the -7 handicap.

The last time France managed to win by 10 points or more at Murrayfield was in 2008, but we believe the current squad have it in them to be pushing towards that mark.

Scotland’s discipline let them down in losing 20-17 in Cardiff and if their penalty count remains high, France will look to either deploy their efficient catch-and-drive tactic or punish the Scots through the prolific boot of Melvyn Jaminet, who as a frontline kicker capable of scoring tries from full-back, has obvious appeal in the Player of the Match market.

With France rediscovering their flair, Scottish playmaker Finn Russell playing like a Frenchman even before his time at Racing 92, and Darcy Graham beating defenders for fun, this should be quite an open game with plenty of points.

• CLICK HERE to back Jaminet to be Player of the Match with Sky Bet

England v Wales

Kick-off time: Saturday, 1645 GMT

Venue: Twickenham

Where to watch: ITV

Best bet: England half-time/full-time

Key stats

• For the first time in the 147-year history of this fixture the teams will be captained by players from the same club (Northampton) in England’s Courtney Lawes and Dan Biggar of Wales
• England bounced back from losing to Scotland (20-17) by beating Italy 33-0 in round two
• Wales lost their opening match 29-7 to Ireland in Dublin before beating Scotland 20-17 in round two
• Wales’ 40 points in their last meeting with England is the most scored in a match, surpassing the 34 in a 34-21 victory in April 1967
• England have won their last five matches with Wales at Twickenham, dating back to the 28-25 defeat in the RWC 2015 pool stage
• Wales’ last Six Nations victory at Twickenham was 19-12 on 25 February, 2012
• England have lost just two of their last 24 home games in the Six Nations (W21, D1), defeats to Ireland in 2018 and Scotland in 2021
• Since the start of the 2016 Six Nations, Wales have picked up just one away victory outside of Scotland or Italy in the Championship, a 24-19 win in Paris in 201
• Dan Biggar holds the Welsh record for most points in a match against England with 23 in the 28-25 victory at Rugby World Cup 2015
• Ben Youngs could become England’s most-capped men’s player in his own right this weekend, having drawn level on 114 caps with Jason Leonard against Italy in round two
• England have won nine of their last 13 meetings with Wales
• England fly-half Marcus Smith is the joint top point scorer after round two with 30 alongside France full-back Melvyn Jaminet

Dan Biggar only had one leg to stand on when limping his way through Wales’ 20-17 win over Scotland in round two – but that’s one more than those arguing the case for a first Wales win at Twickenham since 2015 … that is until the news broke late on Thursday that Manu Tuilagi had been ruled out through yet another injury.

While one man doesn’t make a team, a hard carrying centre was the missing piece of the jigsaw that Eddie Jones’ game plan is built around.

Make no mistake, Tuilagi’s absence from the England team is massive so it is surprising that the handicap line has only dropped by one point from -14 to -13 for England.

The Sale Sharks player makes things happen, particularly against Wales, scoring on his first and last appearance against them, and was to be the fulcrum for England’s attack against a Welsh midfield that was suspect defensively.

Instead, Joe Marchant is recalled alongside Henry Slade in what has to date been an ineffective partnership. Both players were fairly anonymous in England’s 33-0 win over Italy a fortnight ago, and if you’re not going to stand out against the competition’s weakest team when are you going to stand out?

Similarly, Wales have had issues at centre with Nick Tompkins having had more partners than a speed dating veteran. That has stymied Wales in both attack and defence and helps explain why the discarded Louis Rees-Zammit has been such a blunt attacking force.

With questionable midfield combinations on the field, even more of the onus falls on the respective fly-halves and Biggar, who has recovered from the knee injury that hampered him against Scotland, and opposite number, Marcus Smith, are more than happy to play the leading role.

Both teams have become reliant on their playmakers for points with Smith contributing 30 of England’s tally of 50 (60%), including two tries, while Biggar accounts for 15 of Wales’ 27 points (52%) even accounting for the fact he didn’t have a shot at goal against Ireland in the opening match. One of those two would be a good bet for Player of the Match.

Of the two 10s, you’d reckon that Smith will get more front-foot ball to play with than Biggar because of the elative strengths of the packs and that is probably where the game will be won or lost – upfront.

The front-row could also be a surprise source of tries. To date in the Six Nations, props have accounted for three of the 26 tries (Kyle Sinckler, Tomas Francis and Cyril Baille). Other than wingers, no position has contributed more. In fact, half of England’s six tries this year have come from the front row union with hooker Jamie George getting a brace against Wales. Sometimes it pays big to back the big lads and Sinckler could be in business again.

Biggar may have to rely on building Wales’ score three points at a time – typically England concede a lot of penalties at the start and end of games – as well as his tried and tested ‘Garryowen and regather’ tactic. He has had plenty of success with that in the past but England’s defence will be wise to it, especially with Freddie Steward under the high ball.

Had Tuilagi been playing, we’d have backed England to win well. Now, we’re not so sure. One thing that is almost guaranteed in this historic fixture, however, is that England will go into the break with more points than Wales. In the last 25 Tests between the two teams at Twickenham, Wales have only led once at half-time, making England-England very attractive in the half-time/full-time betting.

• CLICK HERE to back Sinckler to score anytime with Sky Bet

Posted at 1145 GMT on 25/02/22

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