Tony Calvin is sticking to his guns and expecting France to find things tough at Murrayfield as he looks ahead to this weekend's action in the Six Nations.
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5pts Scotland (+6) on the handicap at evens
I am always being pestered to get a dog and if ever I give in, then I hope the hound is more loyal than I am to my pre-tournament Six Nations tip, France.
Those who have kept the faith are now sitting on 13/2 about an 8/11 chance, but I deserted them big style a fortnight ago, and the reverberations of their 27-23 win in Cardiff are still being felt in my Betfair account.
I went in pretty big on Wales giving away a five-point start that day, both personally and in these columns, so apologies are perhaps due on the latter front. But if you can look yourselves in the mirror and say with total honesty that you would have the same bet again, regardless of the result, then you really shouldn’t be saying sorry.
If Wales played France this weekend, then I would be all over the home team to win once again. And to win well, by more than five points.
From conversations I have had, I know plenty would disagree with that take.
But, for me, France netted 14 points as a result of a dropped ball and an interception - an interception which probably would have resulted in a Wales score at the other end, so it was a massive swing with France only leading by a point at the time. And most people would have given the home side a penalty try after Paul Willemse seemed to have deliberately knocked on in the corner with a Welsh try imminent.
That would have also carried the additional punishment of a yellow card for the visitors. Plenty went their way then, and France still only won by four points.
Of course, that is a very simplistic analysis of the match and France played a lot better than I thought they would against an admittedly disappointing Wales side, albeit one hampered by the early departure of George North.
And you have to admire the spirit, back-bone (I know that sounds condescending) and fitness of the side to still have the ability to get back in numbers to snuff out that dangerous Welsh attack in the final play of the game.
They were well and truly 'at it', and any win in Cardiff in recent years is not to be sniffed at.
But I still have my doubts on the back of that performance, and their previous defeats of England and Italy clearly did not wholly convince me, either.
Again, that may be churlish given what England have done since, but I think France are a defeat waiting to happen, and I think SCOTLAND could well be the team to inflict it.
I can hear those who watched Scotland’s dismal 17-0 defeat of Italy sniggering now, as that was one woeful, error-strewn international, lit up by a sole piece of individual brilliance by Stuart Hogg.
But it is never wise to judge, over-react to, or back a team on their most recent performance alone – as England’s backers at 2/5 in the World Cup final can testify to – and I prefer to view this game in the light of Scotland’s seven-point losses to Ireland in Dublin, and England at Murrayfield.
Both games could have gone either way.
Now, Scotland wouldn’t have the talent or cutting edge that this French three-quarter line have been threatening to unleash in this tournament – especially with Finn Russell still surplus to requirements - but I think they will look to take it to them up front, and I fully expect the home to team to dominate scrum-time at Murrayfield this weekend. That is one area where they have done well in this tournament.
Looking at past results in this fixture could be misleading as France have clearly made fair strides this year, but they have lost on their last three trips to Murrayfield, and I fundamentally disagreed with outright quotes of 12/5 for Scotland earlier in the week, and the six-point handicap line.
Unfortunately, the 12/5 didn’t last – and the early 3.5 on Betfair has shortened into 3.2, as well - but the six-point line at evens thankfully remains.
On a Six Nations weekend where I think bets are at a premium, then I have no hesitation in making Scotland +6 a stand-out wager at evens with bet365 and William Hill.
Even when France won this fixture in 2012 and 2014, their winning margins were only six and two, so I really like the safety net of the handicap punt especially, though I admit to have been laying France and backing Scotland on the match odds exchange market and I remain a backer of Scotland at around 9/4 there.
Wales preferred - but no bet
That international takes place on Sunday, and Saturday’s England v Wales game – obviously we have lost the Ireland v Italy game due to the precautions surrounding the coronavirus - is priced up pretty much as I would expect.
Normally I would have been all over Wales getting a 13-point start for this match (Hills, 10/11), but their three-quarter cupboard is beginning to look pretty bare, with Josh Adams picking up a late injury in the France game and Dan Biggar, already in the wars, suffering what appeared to be a serious injury for Northampton last week, so I don’t know how fit he will be.
Their set-piece is not going to menace anyone, especially a pack the size of England’s, so having them as such big underdogs is understandable.
They were not as good as I thought the scoreline made them look in their opening 42-0 defeat of Italy – and that result was put into context in Rome a fortnight ago – but they have been brought to earth with a thud in defeats in Dublin and at home last time.
Perhaps I am simply doing France a big disservice here, but I was massively disappointed by a lack of Welsh poise and structure last time, and it isn’t hard to see an England side with their tails back up giving them a proper shoeing at Twickenham.
On the positive side, North is fit, and key players Liam Williams and Josh Navidi (in for a subdued Taulupe Faletau) return, too.
England lost at home to Wales in 2012 and in the World Cup in 2015, but they have won their last four Twickenham meetings with winning margins of 4, 14, 6 and 4.
However, the winning Six Nations scorelines among those results have only been 25-21 and 12-6, and, as much as Wales have failed to cut the mustard so far, I am not sure England were quite as hot as many made out against Ireland two weeks ago.
The Irish looked a side with big problems at Twickenham and you will rarely see a more clueless and disinterested first-half performance from a top side.
They weren’t marking high kicks in dangerous areas, and quite what Johnny Sexton and Jacob Stockdale were doing in gifting England 14 points in the in-goal area – you can maybe be generous and give the former a pass for the bounce of the ball, but the latter was just ambling back with no urgency – is anyone’s guess.
The forwards were supine, and they seemed to be having a mini-team meeting at every opportunity.
And yet, for all they were bullied and dominated for the opening 40 minutes, the fact of the matter is that England only won by 12 points and created very little attack-wise, so how good were Eddie Jones' men?
They didn’t have to do too much to beat Ireland, and I keep coming back to how poor they were against France. And you couldn’t judge too much from their defeat of Scotland in atrocious conditions, apart from a gritty nature.
I think the jury is still out on them, which makes backing them to win by more than 11 points (the handicap line ranges from 11 to 13) none too attractive.
I’d probably side with Wales +13 if pressed – the England back-line looks very tasty with the return of Anthony Watson, but Sam Underhill is a fair loss at open-side, as is the non-availability of Mako Vunipola – but I am not forcing a bet, so my rugby betting fate this weekend begins and ends at Murrayfield on Sunday.
Marrying my immediate and long-term tips, a France victory by 1-5 points is probably the ideal scenario, but I am certainly not ruling out a home win, and have backed that outcome accordingly, too.
I am filing this before knowing the French and Scottish teams but I have been tracking team news throughout the week and am not expecting any surprises, though I wouldn’t mind seeing Richie Gray return at a wet Murrayfield.
Best of luck.
Posted at 1020 GMT on 06/03/20
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