Jon Newcombe, from The Rugby Tipster, previews the opening Saturday of the Six Nations with a mouth-watering clash between England and Scotland, while favourites France head to Italy.
Six Nations betting tips
2pts England v Scotland - First score an England penalty at 15/8
2pts England v Scotland - Under 46.5 points at 5/6
1pt Italy v France - Italy +10 on the half-time handicap at 10/11
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
England v Scotland
- Stadium: Twickenham, London
- Kick-off: 1645 GMT
- Referee: Andrew Brace (Ireland)
- TV: ITV1
It is the 150th anniversary of the first Calcutta Cup match and the rivalry between England and Scotland remains just as fierce as the first time the sides contested the oldest trophy in international rugby.
For Scotland fans, it is the hope that accompanies every Six Nations campaign that kills them.
Year after year, a former player talks them up in Press but in 16 of the 21 editions of the Championship, they have finished in the bottom half of the table, which shows those brave expectations are rarely met.
And as graveyards go, those dreams are buried deeper at Twickenham than anywhere else; it is a venue that Scotland have not won at since 1983.
Even when Scotland do lift their game to new heights, something still manages to stop them from breaking the wretched run. On their last visit in 2019, Scotland came back from 31 points down in as many minutes to lead 38-31 but George Ford rescued a draw for England.
Sadly, a 76-point classic is unlikely on Saturday, more of a low-scoring arm wrestle between two sides looking to smash each other into submission.
England have never lost to Scotland on the four previous occasions they have met on the opening weekend but the last two encounters, both at Murrayfield, have been extremely close.
Stuart Lancaster kicked off his England reign with a scrappy 13-6 win on a cold February day in 2012 and Eddie Jones did the same, in 2016, this time by a 15-9 scoreline.
A few more points than that should be on offer this time around, if the weather plays ball, but England will do well to meet predictions and win by more than two scores.
With opensides as ferocious as Tom Curry and Hamish Watson on show, neither side is likely to command quick ball. If the total points market is set at anything more than 43.5 points, our advice is to go low.
In Rory Sutherland, Scotland have a loosehead prop with growing British & Irish credentials. His head-to-head with England’s eight-cap rookie, Will Stuart, will be one of many fascinating subplots. Stuart, for all his talent, is prone to giving away scrum penalties when playing for Bath in the Gallagher Premiership, and Sutherland will be looking to pile the pressure on.
The question is will Finn Russell be able to capitalise? Russell and Cameron Redpath form what promises to be an exciting 10-12 axis that could run and run for years to come, but the playmaker needs to kick his goals as well as throw miracle passes if Scotland are going to be in with a sniff of taking England’s scalp.
Six Nations content
Whilst his opposite number, Owen Farrell, had 27 attempts at goal in the Autumn Nations Cup alone, Russell had just two for Scotland the entire year. Admittedly, he only played twice but also consider the 28-year-old doesn't commands the tee for club side Racing 92, that job falls to Maxime Machenaud. Captain Stuart Hogg is the only real alternative to Russell if his kicking radar is off.
You’d back Farrell over Russell in a kicking duel any day of the week, and two or three penalties could be all it takes for England to keep hold of the Calcutta Cup. Betfair are offering 15/8 for an England penalty to be the first scoring play.
With England looking to grind out a win, they’ll be intent on building a score. And as good as England’s driving maul is you’d bank on Farrell, as captain, to take it upon himself to get points on the board early if any kickable opportunities come his way.
England v Scotland best bets
- First score an England penalty at 15/8 (Betfair)
- England v Scotland - Under 46.5 points at 5/6 (Paddy Power)
England v Scotland key stats
- England have only lost their opening Six Nations fixture on four occasions (2005 and 2008 v Wales, 2014 and 2020 v France)
- Scotland by contrast have only won three of their 21 opening matches in the Six Nations, the last a 33-20 defeat of Italy in 2019)
- Owen Farrell needs four points to bring up a century against Scotland. He ranks second for England behind Jonny Wilkinson (114)
Italy v France
- Stadium: Stadio Olimpico, Italy
- Kick-off: 1415 GMT
- Referee: Matthew Carley (England)
- TV: ITV1
Fancied France will be looking to back up the pre-Championship hype and get off to a flyer in Rome, a place where they have only lost twice, in 2011 and 2013, in the history of fixtures between the two teams.
Given Les Bleus’ form in 2020 (seven wins out of nine) and Italy’s ongoing malaise (27 consecutive Six Nations losses), this is a game where it is a question of not who will win but by what margin.
With a near-as-damn it full strength side out, including the return of the hugely influential No.8 Grégory Alldritt, you would expect last season’s Six Nations runners-up to cover the 21-point handicap against them, even away from home.
Italy’s squad is callow in terms of international experience and the experience of captain and hooker Luca Bigi and Benetton's Sebastian Negri, who is returning from an injury he suffered during the Autumn Nations Cup, will be key to them keeping their heads above water.
France won 36-5 the last time the sides met, in the Autumn Nations Cup back in November, despite fielding 11 uncapped players due to a match-limit imposed on them by the Top 14 clubs.
Italy only trailed by five points at the break in that game, and deserved to still be in the fight, but the concession of three tries in eight minutes just after the interval ruined any hopes they had of a fourth win over France.
Encouraging starts followed by second-half blowouts have been a feature of Azzurri teams in recent times. With that in mind, backing Italy +10 on the half-time handicap (10/11) could be the bet.
For some reason Italy do not seem to have the mental toughness to overcome setbacks, and in the Autumn Nations Cup, it was Jacopo Trulla’s yellow card that did for them. They are unlikely to buck the trend with a team whose average age is just 20.
When doing the basics well and keeping the penalty count down, Italy have the capacity to build scoreboard pressure through the boot of Paolo Garbisi. But scoring in threes won’t be enough against a France side loaded with attacking threats, principally scrum-half Antoine Dupont and lightning-quick wings, Gabin Villiere and Teddy Thomas.
Sevens convert Villiere scythed through the Italian defence in the last meeting and is one of only three players to retain his place in Les Bleus’ starting line-up. Brice Dulin and fly-half Matthieu Jalibert are the others.
Italy got last season’s campaign off to the worst possible start with a 42-0 loss to Wales, becoming the first side in the history of the Six Nations to fail to score a single point on the opening weekend.
While that victory proved to be a false dawn under new head coach, Wayne Pivac, for Italy it was a true representation of what was to come throughout the year: another Six Nations wooden spoon and more defeats in the Autumn.
Franco Smith has yet to win as Italy head coach and you do wonder when that duck will be broken. Not on Saturday, that’s for sure.
Italy v France best bets
- Italy +10 on the half-time handicap at 10/11 (William Hill)
Italy v France key stats
- France have won 24 of their last 26 meetings with Italy, losing in 2011 and 2013 in Rome
- Italy lost all eight tests played in 2020 under new coach Franco Smith
- Italy have lost their last 27 Six Nations matches, dating back to a 22-19 defeat of Scotland at Murrayfield on 28 February, 2015
- Since 2004, Italy have only won once on the opening Six Nations weekend, 23-18 over France in 2013
Six Nations content
Odds correct at 1730 GMT (04/02/21)
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