Rugby union betting tips: Six Nations round five
3pts Scotland to score six or more tries at 8/11 (Paddy Power)
2pts Scotland (-27) to beat Italy on the handicap at evens (General)
1pt Scotland to win by 31-40 points at 7/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Chris Harris anytime try-scorer in Scotland v Italy at 5/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt England try first scoring play v Ireland at 4/1 (Betfair, BoyleSports)
1pt Anthony Watson anytime try-scorer at 2/1 (BoyleSports)
3pts Wales (+8) to beat France on the handicap at evens (Paddy Power)
1pt France-Wales double result at 12/1 (Betfred)
2pts Over 47.5 total points in France v Wales at 10/11 (bet365)
Scotland v Italy
- When: 1415 GMT, Saturday March 20
- Where: Murrayfield
- Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
- TV: BBC
Stuart Hogg’s first start at 10 in pro rugby in over four years suggests Scotland will be giving it a good lash against Italy at Murrayfield as they look to go into next Friday’s rearranged game with France on a high.
A top-half finish is firmly in the Scots’ sights with a bonus-point win against the Azzurri surely guaranteed. You’d have to dig away as frenetically as Hamish Watson at a ruck to have any hope of finding a stat that supports anything other than a heavy defeat for the perennial wooden spoonists.
Make no mistake, if Italy were to beat Scotland, for the first time since round three in 2015 – their last win in the Six Nations, some 31 matches ago – it would rank alongside Argentina’s victory over the All Blacks last November in terms of a shock result. From an odds perspective, it would actually be twice as big, because Los Pumas were 13/1 shots and Italy are as big as 26/1. Hogg and Watson are the only two surviving Scotland players from the defeat to Italy six years ago, and the dark blues have won the last nine meetings in all competitions since then.
As brilliant as he is with ball in hand, Hogg’s selection in place of the sidelined Finn Russell would be seen as a risky play against any opposition other than Italy. Against the Azzurri, though, Scotland’s pugnacious captain and full-back has pretty much free rein to do what he wants. Having scored in three of his last four matches against Saturday’s opponents, he’ll no doubt back himself to cross the whitewash again, and is an 11/10 chance to do so.
Two of CHRIS HARRIS’ three international tries in 28 Tests have come against the Italians so he might be better value at 5/2 in the anytime try-scorer market, especially with Hogg not having as much time and space at first receiver as he does at full-back.
It is hard to see Scotland not covering off the -27 HANDICAP and perhaps even challenging their record winning margin in the fixture of 41, established in a Rugby World Cup 2015 warm-up match.
The only worry is that if Scotland’s play becomes too unstructured the tries might not come as freely as they’d like. Even so, going OVER 5.5 TRIES for Scotland (8/11) seems like a no-brainer considering the Italians are on course to concede a record number of points in a single Championship season.
With Italy probably good for a try or two themselves, we like the look of a 31-40 POINT WINNING MARGIN for Scotland (7/2).
By all accounts, head coach Franco Smith refuses to be swayed from his game plan, despite it clearly not working, and another glum afternoon looks in prospect for the South African who spent much of last weekend’s 48-7 loss to Wales with his head in his hands.
Ireland v England
- When: 1645 GMT, Saturday March 20
- Where: Aviva Stadium
- Referee: Mathieu Raynal (France)
- TV: ITV
No quarter will be asked nor given in Dublin in what should be a hugely physical confrontation between two structured teams who like to win the battle of the gain line and could quite easily cancel each other out, hence the low total points line of 43.5.
Selection has once again been a big talking point, with England boss Eddie Jones attracting more criticism for his decision to go with Elliot Daly at 13 over more recognised outside centres in Joe Marchant and Ollie Lawrence, following Henry Slade’s withdrawal through injury. Daly hasn’t started a Test for England in that position since his debut against South Africa in 2016 and can expect a lot of heavy traffic coming down his channel.
Of more significance though to former England player and coach, Jon Callard, is Jones’ decision to pair up Maro Itoje with Bath captain Charlie Ewels. Speaking on The Rugby Tipster’s YouTube channel, Callard believes it was a masterstroke that contributed towards Maro Itoje turning in a match-winning performance against France.
"Itoje was monumental against France, he was stealing lineouts, getting around the park and then obviously he scored the try to win the game," he said. "I am giving credit to the selectors because they brought in Charlie Ewels to take the pressure off Itoje, or that’s how it seemed to me. Ewels is a lineout guru in the mould of Steve Borthwick and I think his ability to assemble and dissemble a lineout freed up Itoje to play his game."
Itoje will have to be at his majestic best at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday, especially with Ireland boosted by the return from suspension of Peter O’Mahony, arguably the best back-row lineout operator in the business. Many people considered the Saracens man to be unlucky not to get the man-of-the-match award against France and this time around he is 10/1 in a market headed by CJ Stander, who will no doubt be the emotional choice of many an Irishmen given this is his last game before retirement.
If England can win parity in the lineout, match Stander’s fire with fire in the carrying stakes, which they are more than capable of doing now that Billy Vunipola has the bit between his teeth again, and also keep their penalty count low, they stand a good chance of claiming their third win of the campaign.
To defy the four-point handicap against them, it is imperative that England keep Johnny Sexton’s goal-kicking out of the equation. Cool-as-you-like Sexton stepped up to slot the match-winning three points against Scotland from close to the touchline last Sunday, and has been successful with 17 of his 19 shots at goal. If the veteran 10 is allowed opportunities to build a score, he will take them. And history says that England cannot afford to play catch-up rugby because the team leading at half-time in this fixture has won the previous 27 Tests.
Having conceded the first try in their last five matches that does not bode well for England, but we expect them to come flying out of the blocks with the turbo-charged ANTHONY WATSON leading the way.
In that respect, Jacob Stockdale’s return on the left wing could be even more significant than Daly’s in midfield. The Ulsterman has been out of action for a while, hasn’t played on the wing much all season, and has been exposed previously when coming up against a player who can step inside at the blink of an eye. Watson, England’s man-of-the-match in the 23-20 win against France, could be that man.
England tend to score more tries as the game draws to a close but they’ll need to flip that on its head on Saturday. BoyleSports and Betfair are offering 4/1 on an ENGLAND TRY being the first scoring play, while Six Nations joint top try-scorer Watson is a best-priced 15/8 (William Hill) to add to the four tries he has got already in this Championship. Both appeal in what should be an engrossing game to watch.
France v Wales
- When: 2000 GMT, Saturday March 20
- Where: Stade de France
- Referee: Luke Pearce (England)
- TV: BBC & S4C
The most experienced team in Welsh history will set about claiming a record-equalling 13th Grand Slam for their country, and possibly the most improbable of the lot, when they take to the Stade de France pitch on Saturday night.
Rated as 33/1 outsiders to claim their fifth clean sweep of the Six Nations era, those odds looked on the skinny side at the outset given Wayne Pivac’s troubled first season in charge of the team in 2020.
However, a campaign built on rock-solid defence and clinical finishing leaves them on the cusp of completing a remarkable transformation from also-rans to kings of Europe.
Big games need big characters and strong leadership and WALES have all of those qualities in abundance, which is one of the reasons why we fancy them to not only win with an EIGHT-POINT HANDICAP start but go to Paris and complete the job.
Wales typically deliver when it comes to these pressure-cooker situations, winning four Grand Slam games from four in the Six Nations era, and 12 out of 15 in the Championship overall. But never before will they have been able to call upon so much experience. With 987 caps between them, this Welsh team beats the old record by eight.
Captain Alun Wyn Jones has the lion’s share. Jones will win his 148th cap for Wales, matching the total of Richie McCaw for New Zealand, and has more caps than the entire French pack out together. Jones, 35, refuses to let age define him and those writing off his chances of making the Lions squad may have to think again.
Against this flamboyant French side, Wales will have to raise their game to another level which should make for an electrifying, high-scoring clash, even with such high stakes.
Red cards to Ireland and Scotland played a part in their first two wins, bad referee calls were a contributory factor against England, and Italy were no test. But, as the old saying goes, fortune favours the brave.
Wales will have to be brave not only in the way they set about playing, as they look to break down Shaun Edwards’ defence, but mentally, too, because there is a very good chance that they’ll have to come from behind to win.
Since 2020, France have led at half-time in 22 out of 26 Tests since November 2018, and more often than not during that period they have scored the opening try. A DOUBLE RESULT OF FRANCE-WALES is an eye-catching 12/1 with Betfred.
Click here to back France HT-Wales FT with Sky Bet
Everything points to both sides giving it a go. While the Grand Slam is on the line for Wales, a first Six Nations title in 11 years is still possible for Les Bleus if this result and the one against Scotland next Friday goes their way.
France go into the match unchanged from the 23-20 defeat to England so won’t lack for any fluency, while Wales have made one change to their starting line-up with Adam Beard replacing Cory Hill in the second-row.
Each team will know how the other plays by now, so it will come down to which of them is the most clinical on the day. Both have been ruthless in turning possession into points thus far, with Wales clocking up the most points scored per time spent in the opposition 22, while France are not far behind them in terms of ‘red zone efficiency’ in second.
This leads us to believe that the TOTAL POINTS line of 47.5 is on the low side for a match that should live up to all the expectations.
Posted at 1105 GMT on 19/03/21
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